Markets are rebounding hard, a rare breadth signal flashes, and crypto may be trying to stage a comeback.Markets on Pace for Best Week Since JuneAs of Wednesday's close, U.S. stock indexes (NYSE:SPY) (NYSE:VOO) (NASDAQ:QQQ) are on track for their strongest week since June, with the Nasdaq 4.2%, the S&P 500 gaining 3.2%, and the Dow rising 2.6%.That rebound comes after a significant dip, suggesting some traders are interpreting the pullback as a buying opportunity, possibly positioning for year-end or reacti ...

Group 1 - Optimism regarding a potential US-China trade deal is leading investors to sell Treasuries, resulting in decreased demand for safe-haven assets [1][3] - Yields on 10-year US government bonds increased by four basis points to 4.04%, the highest level in over a week, following agreements on tariffs and export controls between the US and China [2] - The selloff in Treasuries is occurring at a critical time as markets anticipate central bank policy decisions and the outcome of a meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping [3] Group 2 - Investor sentiment will be further assessed through upcoming two- and five-year Treasury sales [4] - Concerns over inflation risks are growing as tariffs begin to impact the economy, despite soft CPI data and worries in sectors like housing and private credit [4] - A proxy for term premium on US 10-year debt rose by one basis point to 66 basis points, indicating a slight increase in perceived future risk [5]

Core Insights - The rebound in the dollar was short-lived due to renewed strains in U.S.-China trade relations, leading investors to seek safe havens like the yen and Swiss franc [1][4] - Despite a temporary conciliatory tone from U.S. President Trump regarding tariffs, tensions between the U.S. and China remain high, as indicated by recent developments [2][5] - Beijing's countermeasures against U.S.-linked subsidiaries and the introduction of additional port fees by both nations have escalated trade tensions [3][6] Currency Movements - The dollar experienced a broad decline, with the euro rising 0.14% to $1.1585 and sterling increasing 0.12% to $1.3351 [4] - The Australian dollar, a risk appetite proxy, fell 0.63% to $0.6475, while the New Zealand dollar decreased by 0.5% to $0.5697 [4] - Safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and yen gained against the dollar, with the Swiss franc up 0.2% to 0.8027 and the yen rising 0.3% to 151.86 [6][7] Geopolitical Context - The current U.S.-China relationship is characterized as a structural feature of new geoeconomic realities, indicating that tensions are unlikely to resolve easily [5][6] - China's commerce ministry has communicated with the U.S. regarding rare earth export controls, highlighting ongoing negotiations despite the tensions [6]