Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 has achieved significant gains over the past three years, raising questions about its future performance in 2026, with historical patterns showing mixed outcomes following similar streaks [3][10]. Historical Performance - The S&P 500 ended 2025 with a gain of 16.4%, following increases of 23.3% in 2024 and 24.2% in 2023, marking the fifth instance in 97 years where the index has delivered over 16% returns for three consecutive years [3]. - The first occurrence of the index rising by 16% or more for three consecutive years was from 1995 to 1997 during the dot-com boom, with subsequent notable streaks from 1996 to 1998 and 1997 to 1999 [4]. - The next streak of three consecutive years of 16% or more gains occurred two decades later, with returns of 28.9% in 2019, 16.3% in 2020, and 26.9% in 2021 [5]. Future Projections - Historical data shows a mixed record for the S&P 500 following three consecutive years of 16% or more gains, with notable increases in some instances, such as a 26.7% rise in 1998 and a 19.5% rise in 1999 [6]. - However, there have also been declines, such as a 10.1% drop in 2000 following the 1997-1999 streak, and a 19.4% decline in 2022 after the 2019-2021 gains due to rising interest rates [7][9]. - The outlook for 2026 remains uncertain, with potential for continued momentum driven by trends like artificial intelligence, but also risks associated with high valuations, as indicated by the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio being at its highest level since 2000 [10][12]. Long-term Investment Strategy - A more reliable strategy for investors may be to focus on the S&P 500's historical performance over rolling 20-year periods, which has delivered positive total returns 100% of the time, suggesting a favorable outlook for long-term investors [14][15].

Key Points The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings multiple is at its highest level in decades. The Federal Reserve found that Donald Trump's tariffs may lead to higher prices in the long run. Although inflation is cooling, U.S. unemployment is at its highest level in four years. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › As of the closing bell on Dec. 23, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) had gained 17% in 2025 -- putting the index on pace for a third straight year of double-digit percentage gai ...

Core Message - Warren Buffett's recent investment moves signal a warning to Wall Street, reflecting a cautious outlook as he prepares to step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, with a record cash level of $381 billion indicating limited stock purchases [1][8]. Group 1: Buffett's Leadership Transition - Buffett will continue as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway but will hand over investment decisions to Greg Abel starting January 1 [2]. - Investors are closely monitoring Buffett's final moves as CEO due to his historical success and influence in the market [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Market Conditions - Buffett has been a net seller of stocks for the past 12 quarters, indicating a lack of attractive investment opportunities in the current market [8]. - The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio suggests that stocks are at record levels, which aligns with Buffett's reluctance to buy overvalued stocks [9]. - Historical data shows that peaks in the Shiller CAPE ratio have often preceded declines in the S&P 500, suggesting potential market downturns in 2026 [10]. Group 3: Implications for Investors - Investors should focus on stock valuations rather than popularity, as Buffett's recent moves highlight the importance of buying stocks at reasonable prices [12]. - While historical trends indicate potential declines, the S&P 500 may still finish positively in the long term, as it has rebounded after past declines [13][14].

Key Points The S&P 500 is on pace to generate double-digit gains for a third consecutive year. Some investors are worried that the stock market is in a bubble. History shows that investing during market downturns is a profitable idea in the long run. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › With only a handful of trading days left in the year, it's looking like the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) will post double-digit gains for the third year in a row. As of mid-day trading on Dec. 19, the S&P 50 ...

Key Points Excitement about AI stocks has driven the S&P 500 to record levels this year. The major benchmark is on track for its third annual increase -- and each time the gain has been in the double digits. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › The S&P 500 is heading for a third consecutive annual gain in the double digits as the bull market momentum continues -- and the index even closed at record levels in recent days. What's driven this seemingly unstoppable energy? Over the past couple ...

Buffett's recent actions tell us something extremely important about the market right now.Investors generally are unanimous about the following: Warren Buffett is an investor to watch during any market environment. This is because the billionaire has delivered a track record of success that spans nearly 60 years. As chairman and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has helped generate a compounded annual gain of nearly 20%. This largely beats the S&P 500's 10% compounded increase over that time pe ...

Buffett scoops up these players when he feels they're undervalued and have what it takes to gain the recognition of the rest of the market over time -- then he holds on and generally wins as these companies steadily grow earnings and their businesses. He also is a big fan of dividends and has benefited from owning Dividend Kings like Coca-Cola for decades and collecting passive income.So, first, a quick note on how Buffett goes about investing . He has built an empire as chairman and chief executive officer ...

Group 1 - The stock market may be on shakier ground than perceived, with analysts potentially presenting an overly optimistic view [1] - Many analysts agree that President Trump's tariffs are detrimental to trade, stocks, and economic growth, impacting corporate profit margins and consumer demand [3] - Despite the S&P 500's solid performance this year, analysts believe the economic impact of higher tariffs is likely delayed rather than avoided [4] Group 2 - UBS estimates a 93% risk of a U.S. economic recession, while JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs estimate 40% and 30% respectively; some analysts predict stagflation instead of recession [5] - Stock valuations are considered frothy, with the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio at its third-highest level and the Buffett indicator exceeding 213%, indicating potential risks [6] - Despite economic uncertainty and high valuations, analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish, with 405 S&P 500 stocks rated as "buy" or better, and only four stocks rated as "sell" [6][7] Group 3 - There are inconsistencies in analyst recommendations, as 44 S&P 500 stocks have consensus 12-month price targets below their current share prices, yet analysts still recommend buying 21 of them [8] - Potential upward price target revisions may occur for certain stocks, such as Alphabet, following favorable legal news [8]