Global stocks are falling and oil prices are spiking Friday as Israel's attacks on Iran's nuclear program and military leadership sparked worries of a broader Middle East conflict and drove investors into safe-haven assets. https://t.co/FDqOxjaiLi ...

May 30, 2025 01:46 PM GMT Cross-Asset Brief Are US Assets Losing Their Safe-Haven Allure? Key Debates in Under 5 Minutes: May 2025 Don't have a lot of time? Here are some brief thoughts on a few key cross-asset debates we've had with investors in May on our out-of-consensus calls. 1) Could expected fiscal expansion lift term premium significantly? No, we expect growing deficits to be funded mostly by T-bills 2) Is it time to get strategically constructive on Chinese risk assets? No, domestic deflation and t ...

Industry Overview - Gold mining stocks have seen a significant rise in valuation due to a surge in gold prices, which reached $3,336.43/ounce on May 21, driven by concerns over U.S. government debt, weak demand for long-term treasury bonds, and a declining U.S. dollar [1][3] - Historically, gold prices rally when bonds become less attractive, particularly in low-interest-rate environments, making gold a preferred investment option [2] - Geopolitical tensions and fiscal uncertainties are prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold, with eroding confidence in the U.S. administration's fiscal and monetary policy contributing to gold's upward movement [3][5] Market Sentiment - Market participants are optimistic about the gold sector, with firms like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan forecasting gold prices could reach $4,000/ounce by 2026, indicating continued bullish momentum [4] - Gold has gained 27% so far in 2025, making it one of the best-performing assets [4] Company Performance - AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) has an expected earnings growth rate of 57.5%, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improving by 39.8% over the past 60 days, holding a Zacks Rank 1 and a VGM Score of B [8] - Newmont Corporation (NEM) has an expected earnings growth rate of 12.6%, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate improving by 25.2% over the past 60 days, also holding a Zacks Rank 1 and a VGM Score of A [9] - Gold Fields Limited (GFI) has an expected earnings growth rate of 50.8%, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate improving by 7.6% over the past 60 days, maintaining a Zacks Rank 1 and a VGM Score of B [10] - B2Gold Corp. (BTG) has an expected earnings growth rate of 231.3%, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate improving by 35.9% over the past 60 days, holding a Zacks Rank 2 and a VGM Score of A [11]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold has increased nearly 24% over the past year and over 900% since 2000, outperforming the S&P 500 index's 489% increase during the same period [2] - The current surge in gold prices is attributed to heightened uncertainty in the stock market, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4] - Historical patterns show that gold prices have gone through boom-and-bust cycles, influenced by the quantity of gold produced and prevailing market prices [5] Group 2: Newmont Corporation Insights - Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold mining company, also producing copper, silver, zinc, and lead, with operations spanning globally [3][4] - The company's financial performance is heavily dependent on gold prices and production levels, with a total return of 240% since 1989 [4][7] - Newmont's current price-to-earnings ratio is 15, with earnings of $3.48 per share last year, but only $1.57 per share in 2023, indicating potential challenges ahead [11] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The VIX index has spiked, indicating high anticipated stock market volatility, while consumer sentiment has dropped to near record lows, suggesting increased fear among investors [9] - There are signals that gold prices may be at or nearing a short-term peak, making it a potentially risky time to invest in gold mining stocks like Newmont [8][12] - The timing of investments in cyclical stocks like Newmont is crucial, as buying during peak earnings may not yield favorable long-term results [11][12]