Core Viewpoint - The U.S. trade war initiated by President Trump is expected to decline in 2026 but may escalate again in 2027, coinciding with the political landscape leading up to the 2028 election [1][2] Group 1: Trade War Dynamics - The trade war is anticipated to simmer in 2026, with a potential resurgence in 2027 as Trump seeks to protect American industry [1] - The outcome of the trade war is uncertain, with no guarantees that it will conclude favorably before the 2028 election [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The trade war is framed as a geopolitical phenomenon, influenced by extreme factionalism within the U.S. and the strategic challenges posed by Russia and China [2] - The U.S. response to these geopolitical threats has been characterized as both delayed and excessive, reflecting a historical pattern in American policy [2]

For most of the past 15 years, the U.S. stock market has been the envy of the world. Since the start of 2011, the S&P 500 index is up 441%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 is up by more than 1,000%. Equity markets in the rest of the world have also grown, but at paces that have lagged Wall Street. The share price of the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (NASDAQ: VXUS), which tracks stock markets outside the U.S., is up by only 62% in the past 15 years. Even on a total return basis (factoring in the r ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar has experienced a significant decline, reaching its lowest level in four years, primarily due to comments made by President Trump and ongoing market reactions to U.S. economic policies [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar has fallen 10% since early 2025, influenced by the "Sell America" trade initiated after Trump's tariff announcements [1] - A recent comment by Trump led to the dollar's worst one-day decline since April, prompting traders to shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and the Swiss franc [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attempted to mitigate the situation, but initial efforts have not been effective [1] - The New York Federal Reserve's rate checks on the dollar/yen pair raised concerns about potential coordinated currency interventions by U.S. and Japanese authorities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the recent rally in gold and silver have surprised some investors, highlighting the metals' role as safe-haven assets amid political and policy uncertainties [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold has increased by 84% year over year, while silver has surged by 245% since late last year, reaching record highs [2] - Gold hit another record high on Wednesday, and silver reached a multiyear high earlier in the week [6] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There are two distinct narratives regarding the rally: one suggests a loss of confidence in U.S. markets, while the other points to structural issues like fiscal deficits and rising debt [2][4][5] - Powell noted that short-term inflation expectations have decreased significantly, while long-term expectations remain aligned with the Fed's 2% target, indicating that the case for a structural move into gold is not as strong [2][5] Group 3: Economic Implications - The "Sell America" trade reflects a short-term reaction to political shocks and policy uncertainties, linking gold's rise to a temporary loss of confidence in U.S. assets [4] - The "debasement trade" suggests that ongoing fiscal deficits and expansionary policies will erode the dollar's purchasing power, driving investors toward hard assets like gold [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar is currently in a bear market, with a significant decline impacting the economy, described as a "double-edged sword" by analysts [1][5]. Dollar Performance - The U.S. dollar index has decreased by 2.2% this year and experienced a more than 9% drop in 2025, marking its worst one-day decline since April [1]. - The dollar's recent performance has led to discussions about its implications for the U.S. economy, particularly in relation to exports and imports [4][5]. Economic Implications - A weaker dollar can enhance the competitiveness of U.S. exports and increase the value of foreign earnings when converted back to USD, potentially boosting the domestic economy [4]. - However, a declining dollar can also lead to higher import costs and reduced investor confidence, complicating the economic landscape [5][4]. Consumer Confidence and Spending Patterns - Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in over a decade, reflecting a K-shaped recovery where higher-income earners are driving spending while lower-income groups struggle with inflation [9][10]. - The labor market shows disparities, with growth in sectors like healthcare and leisure benefiting wealthier consumers, while others face challenges [10]. Market Predictions - Analysts predict that the dollar's decline may continue, drawing parallels to historical market trends where significant capital flows out of the U.S. could further weaken the dollar [11][13]. - The current economic environment, characterized by strong growth and high commodity prices, suggests that the dollar may remain under pressure despite its recent resilience [14][15].

Market Overview - World stocks and the S&P 500 reached new highs, driven by strong U.S. earnings reports [1] - The U.S. dollar fell to a four-year low due to various factors including geopolitical concerns and U.S. policy direction [4] Stock Performance - The S&P 500 is approaching 7000 points, with South Korea and Brazil also hitting new record highs [3] - Nine sectors in the S&P 500 saw gains, particularly in technology and utilities, while healthcare and energy sectors declined [3] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar is experiencing significant selling pressure, leading to a broad decline [4] - The Swiss franc has reached an 11-year high against the dollar, reflecting its status as a safe-haven currency [5][6] Commodity Trends - Oil prices increased by approximately 3%, while gold and silver rebounded, contrasting with declines in platinum and palladium by 3-5% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "sell America" trade is gaining traction among investors, suggesting a shift in portfolio allocations away from U.S. assets, but skepticism remains regarding its sustainability due to the interconnectedness of global markets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sentiment to increase international investments is growing among U.S.-based investors, but the market's electronic linkage complicates a significant asset shift from U.S. to international stocks [2][3]. - The top 20 U.S.-listed ETFs, each with at least $100 billion in assets, are predominantly focused on U.S. stocks, particularly mega-cap tech stocks, which raises questions about the feasibility of reallocating assets to international markets [3][5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG), while included in the top 20 ETFs, is primarily a growth fund with a low dividend payout, indicating a trend towards growth stocks rather than income-generating investments [4][5]. - For investors seeking yield outside the U.S., international dividend and emerging market ETFs are more appealing, as they offer income and stability during market rotations away from U.S. equities [6]. - The iShares International Select Dividend ETF (IDV) is highlighted as a classic choice for international dividend exposure, focusing on developed markets and offering a trailing 12-month yield of 4.7%, significantly higher than major benchmark ETFs [7].

Core Viewpoint - The "Sell America" trade is gaining traction due to the declining value of the U.S. Dollar and rising gold prices [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The U.S. Dollar (DXY) is experiencing a decline, prompting investors to reconsider their positions [1] - Gold prices (XAUUSD:CUR) are soaring, which is influencing investment strategies [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - There is a shift towards high-yield income investments, such as dividend-paying stocks and funds, to support retirement income [1] - The focus is on sectors like Business Development Companies (BDCs), Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), Closed-End Funds (CEFs), and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) [1]

Wall Street lost steam last week as markets grappled with widening policy uncertainty, which went well beyond Greenland. While earnings continued to drive stock-specific volatility—notably Intel’s 17% plunge—the broader narrative was one of investor fatigue with U.S. policy reversals and an expanding range of potential escalation points.Gold extended its rally, climbing 8.5% amid intensified safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and lingering concerns over Federal Reserve independence. However, the b ...

Group 1 - U.S. stock markets are expected to open lower due to President Trump's threat of additional tariffs on Canada, increasing the likelihood of a "sell America" trend this week [1] - Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 17 points, which is less than 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures fell by 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 contracts dropped by 0.3% [1] Group 2 - Precious metals have experienced a significant rally amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, with gold futures increasing by 2.3% to reach $5,094 per ounce, marking the first time gold has surpassed the $5,000 level [2] - Silver futures surged by 7.2% to $109 per ounce, reflecting strong demand in the precious metals market [2]