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拓荆科技_先进制程沉积设备产能提升快于预期;2025 年第三季度超预期;中性
2025-11-03 03:32
Summary of Piotech (688072.SS) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Piotech (688072.SS) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturing Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Revenue**: Rmb2.3 billion, representing a **124% YoY** increase and **82% QoQ** increase, exceeding GSe and Bloomberg consensus by **43%** and **49%** respectively [1][2] - **Gross Margin (GM)**: Declined to **34.4%** in 3Q25 from **38.8%** in 2Q25, attributed to lower margins from early-stage advanced node products [2][12] - **Operating Profit Margin (OPM)**: Improved to **16.9%** in 3Q25 from **14.5%** in 2Q25, reflecting effective expense control [1][2] - **Net Income**: Rmb462 million, a **225% YoY** increase and **92% QoQ** increase, surpassing GSe and consensus by **56%** and **60%** respectively [2][3] Future Outlook - **4Q25 Revenue Projection**: Expected to grow **26% YoY** and **1% QoQ** to Rmb2.3 billion, driven by continued capital expenditure expansions from Chinese foundries and IDMs [1][8] - **Net Income Projection for 4Q25**: Anticipated to reach Rmb567 million, reflecting a **36% YoY** and **23% QoQ** growth [1] Product Development and Market Position - **Advanced Node Equipment**: Piotech is focusing on advanced deposition tools for both logic and memory clients, with a ramp-up of flowable CVD expected in 1Q25 [1][12] - **Vertical Expansion**: The company is expanding its product offerings in areas where it has strengths, rather than diversifying into many product types [12] - **Advanced Packaging Solutions**: Piotech is engaged in mass production of hybrid bonding equipment and aims to develop a comprehensive platform solution for advanced packaging customers [12] Earnings Revisions - **Earnings Estimates**: Adjustments made to net income estimates for 2025-2027 increased by **8%**, **9%**, and **11%** respectively, while revenue estimates were raised by **5%**, **3%**, and **2%** [8] - **Gross Margin Adjustments**: GM estimates were lowered by **6.6 percentage points** for 2025, reflecting the lower margins of early-stage advanced node tools [8] Valuation and Rating - **Current Valuation**: Piotech is trading at **53x** 2026E P/E, close to its average P/E since September 2022 [1][11] - **Target Price**: Increased to Rmb266 based on a target P/E of **46.0x** for 2026E, reflecting higher earnings expectations [11][19] - **Investment Rating**: Maintained a **Neutral** rating due to relatively fair valuation [1][11] Risks and Considerations - **Market Risks**: Potential risks include stronger or weaker-than-expected semiconductor capital expenditure expansion and competitive pressures in the market [19]