Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market this week shows a "divergent pattern under the game of expectations and reality", with futures and spot prices showing different trends. Futures are supported by multiple expectations and rise, while the spot market remains weak. In the long - term, there is a risk of over - capacity, and strategies should be cautious [7]. - The short - term cost - effectiveness of short - selling decreases. Attention should be paid to going long on the 06 contract at low levels and short - selling the 10 - month off - season contract on rebounds [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The current values of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) are 1317 and 1176 respectively, with declines of - 9.68% and - 2.74% compared to the previous values. The SCFI for US West, US East, Northwest Europe, and Mediterranean also show significant declines, with drops of - 10.41%, - 10.05%, - 11.10%, and - 12.05% respectively [4]. 3.2 Geopolitical Situation - The US and Iran are still sending mixed signals, and the market's collective prediction probability of a military strike has slightly decreased. Iran's senior officials say efforts to start negotiations with the US are progressing, and the US is unlikely to launch an air strike on Iran in the near term. The "Lincoln" aircraft carrier has left the Oman Sea and entered the Indian Ocean [5]. 3.3 EC Market - **Price Trend**: The cut - off price shows a pre - holiday decline, with different adjustments among alliances. For example, in the GEMINI alliance, Maersk's opening price in WK6 dropped to $2000 - 2100/FEU and further to $1995/FEU in WK7, while Hapag - Lloyd maintained its price. All alliances' quotes are on a downward trend due to the pre - holiday cargo volume vacuum period [6]. - **Market Pattern**: Futures are supported by multiple expectations such as the rush - shipping expectation caused by the cancellation of photovoltaic tax rebates, geopolitical conflict escalation, and weather fluctuations. The spot market is weak due to the pre - holiday cargo volume vacuum, with shipping companies reducing prices to grab cargo. In the long - term, there is a risk of over - capacity [7].