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Radian Outperforms Industry, Trades at Discount: How to Play the Stock
ZACKSยท 2025-08-13 15:36
Core Insights - Radian Group Inc. (RDN) shares have increased by 9.3% year-to-date, outperforming the Finance sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which grew by 9.1% and 8.3% respectively [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $4.69 billion and an average trading volume of 1.2 million shares over the last three months [1] Valuation - RDN shares are trading at a price-to-book value of 1.05X, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.05X, the Finance sector's 4.23X, and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite's 8.2X, indicating a favorable entry point for investors [2] - Other insurers like Assurant, Inc. (AIZ), Enact Holdings, Inc. (ACT), and CNO Financial Group, Inc. (CNO) are also trading at discounts to the industry average [2] Technical Analysis - Radian shares closed at $34.66, near its 52-week high of $36.99, indicating strong investor confidence and potential for further price appreciation [3] - The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) of $34.35 and $33.37 respectively, suggesting solid upward momentum [3] Growth Projections - The private mortgage insurance market is expected to remain around $300 billion in 2025, with RDN focusing on core, fee-based businesses that have higher growth potential [5][16] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Radian Group's 2025 revenues is $1.25 billion, reflecting a year-over-year improvement of 0.2% [7] - Analysts have raised estimates for 2025 and 2026, with the consensus estimates moving up by 3.7% and 1.2% respectively in the last 30 days [9] Earnings Performance - Radian Group has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 11.15% over the last four quarters [8] Return on Investment - Return on invested capital (ROIC) has been increasing, currently at 6.8%, which is significantly better than the industry average of 1.9%, indicating efficient fund utilization [12] Dividend Policy - Radian Group has increased its quarterly dividend by 4.1% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the sixth consecutive year of dividend increases, with a current yield of 2.8% [17] Overall Sentiment - The combination of solid growth projections, attractive valuations, optimistic analyst sentiment, and favorable ROIC positions Radian Group as a compelling investment opportunity [18]