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Can Philip Morris International Kick Its "Sin Stock" Discount?
The Motley Fool· 2025-10-29 00:24
Core Viewpoint - Philip Morris International (PMI) reported strong quarterly earnings but failed to meet Wall Street's expectations for guidance, leading to a cautious market response regarding its valuation [1][5][6]. Financial Performance - For the quarter ended September 30, PMI's organic revenue increased by 5.9% year over year, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 17.3% [5]. - PMI's guidance for full-year 2025 adjusted EPS is projected between $7.46 and $7.56, a slight increase from the previous range of $7.43 to $7.56, which disappointed investors expecting a more significant upward revision [6]. Market Position and Valuation - Despite reporting five consecutive quarters of double-digit adjusted earnings growth with an average of 15.7%, PMI trades at less than 20 times forward earnings, significantly lower than peers like The Hershey Company, which trades at over 30 times forward earnings [8][9]. - The market's hesitance to value PMI at levels comparable to other blue-chip consumer staples is attributed to its "sin stock" status, despite its efforts to transition towards smoke-free products [3][9]. Growth Drivers - PMI's smoke-free products, including the Iqos heated tobacco device and Zyn nicotine pouches, now account for 41% of its overall revenue, positioning the company for higher growth compared to traditional tobacco peers [5][12]. - The regulatory environment for reduced harm tobacco products in the U.S. is becoming more favorable, with the FDA fast-tracking reviews of nicotine pouches, which could enhance growth prospects [10][12]. Future Outlook - User adoption of nicotine pouches is increasing, with over 10% of the U.S. population still smoking cigarettes, indicating a significant growth opportunity for products like Zyn [11]. - PMI's strategy of selling cigarettes only outside the U.S. mitigates the risk of cannibalizing its legacy business, unlike competitors such as Altria [12]. - The combination of potential valuation expansion and continued earnings growth positions PMI as an attractive investment opportunity at current prices [13].