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Philip Morris International Shares Tumble: Time to Run for the Hills or Buy the Dip?
The Motley Fool· 2025-07-27 08:50
Core Viewpoint - Traditional cigarette sales are declining, but Philip Morris International is offsetting this with strong growth in its newer nicotine products, particularly the Zyn brand and heated tobacco units [1][10]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Zyn shipments in the U.S. increased by 40% to 190 million cans in Q2, with retail sales volumes growing by 26% in the quarter and 36% in June [1]. - Outside the U.S. and Nordic countries, Zyn shipments more than doubled, now available in 44 markets, with overall oral product shipments climbing 23.8% [2]. - Sales volumes of heated tobacco units (HTUs), including the Iqos system, rose nearly 9.2% to 38.8 billion units, with in-market sales increasing by 11.4% [4]. - E-vapor product Veev saw shipment growth more than double, driven by pod growth in Europe, now in 42 markets and holding the No. 1 market share in six European markets [5]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - Organic revenue rose 6.8% year over year to $10.1 billion, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) climbing 20% to $1.91 [6]. - Traditional cigarette volumes fell by 1.5% to 155.2 billion units, but segment organic revenue grew 2% to $6 billion, and gross profits increased by 5% to $4 billion due to price hikes [5]. - Management maintained its full-year guidance for organic revenue growth at 6% to 8% while raising adjusted EPS guidance to $7.43 to $7.56 [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The company expects a 3% to 4% decline in traditional cigarette volumes due to supply chain issues in Turkey and competition from illicit cigarettes in Indonesia [7][8]. - Despite the forecast for steeper declines in cigarette sales volumes, the smoke-free portfolio, particularly Zyn and Iqos, continues to show strong growth and better unit economics [10][11]. - The stock is viewed as undervalued with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio under 22 and a PEG ratio below 0.35, indicating potential for growth [12]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - The current share price offers a forward dividend yield of 3.3%, which, while lower than some competitors, positions the company as a unique growth stock in a defensive industry [13]. - The dip in stock price presents a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors [13].
