Core Viewpoint - The easing of China-US trade tensions has led to a recovery in the commodity market, particularly in cotton futures, which have shown strong upward momentum [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Cotton futures prices have surged, with the main contract CF2509 rising by 290 yuan/ton, a 2.24% increase, breaking through the resistance level around 13,080 yuan [4]. - The optimism in the market is attributed to the recent high-level trade talks between China and the US, which exceeded market expectations and are expected to benefit China's textile and apparel exports [3][4]. Group 2: Trade Agreements - The joint statement from the China-US Geneva trade talks on May 12 indicates a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs on certain Chinese goods for 90 days, while retaining a 10% tariff [3]. - China will reciprocate by suspending similar tariffs on US goods, which is expected to boost market sentiment and cotton prices [3]. Group 3: Cotton Production and Export Data - The US cotton export data shows a significant decline in weekly contracts, down 39% from the previous week and 74% year-on-year, indicating a potential impact from high tariffs [5]. - In contrast, Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase, with a projected planting area of 2.079 million hectares, a 6.9% rise from the previous year [7]. Group 4: Domestic Demand and Supply - Domestic retail sales for clothing and textiles showed a year-on-year increase of 3.6% in March, indicating a stable demand in the domestic market [8]. - However, the textile industry faces challenges with export volumes increasing but prices declining, leading to pressure on downstream profits [8][9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The planting area for cotton in China is expected to increase slightly, supported by price subsidy policies, while the US may see a decrease in cotton planting area by 12% [7][10]. - The market is advised to closely monitor the impact of weather conditions and trade policy developments on cotton prices in the coming months [10].