Is there a real market impact uh from a potential government shutdown. As uh Beth Hammock just mentioned, they generally last a few days. Is there a genuine market impact that investors should be mindful of.You know, I think it's going to have a lot of other impacts certainly on the data as she mentioned, but you know, in terms of overall market impact, there have been about seven depending on what you count, shutdowns in the last 40 years, and the market impacts typically been muted. So, I think if we saw ...

Economic Overview - Stagflation is characterized by weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation, with current conditions suggesting a lowercase stagflation rather than the severe type seen in the 1970s [1][2][11] - Economic growth is measured by GDP, while GNI and CPI are also important indicators to watch [3][4][5] - Current inflation metrics show PCE in the high twos and GDP growth remains strong, indicating that the economy is not in a severe stagflation scenario [7][8] Market Trends - Precious metals have seen significant price increases, with gold up over 40% and silver approaching 60% this year, driven by elevated inflation and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8][9] - The stock market is experiencing volatility, with September historically being a weak month for stocks, yet many strategists believe there is still potential for growth [12][14] Investment Opportunities - Small-cap stocks are highlighted as having a unique opportunity due to their low valuation relative to large caps, with expectations of significant outperformance in the coming years [17][20] - Energy sector stocks are also noted for their potential, particularly in the context of rising demand for natural gas and data centers, with Comstock Resources being a specific example of a stock to watch [27][28] AI and Technology Sector - The AI sector continues to attract investment, with companies like Nvidia leading the charge, and there is a growing interest in software companies that are integrating AI into their offerings [61][63] - Autodesk and DataDog are identified as strong investment picks due to their unique market positions and growth potential in AI applications [72][75] International Market Dynamics - International stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks this year, with a notable shift in capital flows, although concerns about economic conditions in regions like Germany and the UK remain [88][92] - The difference in performance between international and U.S. stocks has narrowed, suggesting a potential normalization in market dynamics [92]

term. Joining us now, Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRE Research. Sam, great to talk to you.Are we are we thinking that it's just the kind of ne negative seasonal tendencies or just something in the markets under the surface that seems like maybe there's some fatigue there or something else that you're trying to flag. >> Hey, Michael, good to talk to you again. Well, I think it's a combination.If you look just to October itself, it is by far the most volatile month of the year with 33% more v ...

[Music] That's closing bell on Wall Street and now it's market domination overtime getting you full team coverage of all the moves get you speed on the action from today's trade Yahoo finances y uh Jared Blickery joining us here to break down the moves today Jared walk us through that close thank you a lot of red here but it's not a disaster just seeing some mild losses in the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P all down about 3 to 4/10en of 1%. I will show you the intraday price action first on the Dow. That's actually y ...

Market Overview - September has shown a surprisingly positive market performance despite initial bearish expectations, with the S&P down only an average of 0.5% [2] - Concerns about market overvaluation primarily focus on the MAG 7 stocks, which constitute 40% of the S&P 500, while small caps are projected to have 35% earnings growth next year at a valuation of 17 times earnings [3][4] Investment Opportunities - Small caps are highlighted as having the lowest multiples and highest earnings growth potential, making them attractive for investment [5][6] - The energy sector is also seen as undervalued, trading at 15.2 times earnings, with significant growth opportunities in natural gas, particularly as data center demand is expected to grow by 165% by 2030 [6][7] Company Insights - Alibaba is planning to increase its AI spending significantly, with projections for global investment in AI reaching $4 trillion over the next five years, positioning it as a leading player in the AI space [10][11] - Intel is viewed as a potential multi-bagger due to its strategic importance in the semiconductor supply chain, especially with the backing from the U.S. government and partnerships with companies like Nvidia [14][15] Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Despite low consumer sentiment, historical trends suggest that the S&P 500 tends to rise by an average of 24.1% within 12 months after such lows [21] - The housing market, which constitutes 16% of GDP, is expected to recover as interest rates decrease, allowing consumers to access trapped equity and stimulate economic activity [22][23]

Small caps today, giants tomorrow. Which #altcoin will explode next? 🔥 ...

Just over a half an hour now till the opening bell on Wall Street. Joining us now on the markets, Matt Powers, president, managing partner of P Advisory Group. You don't think things are cheap either, uh Matt, you do point out that you know the big caps and the uh you know the seven that lead the way and there's 493 other ones.Um do do you think we're overvalued like David Ter. >> Yeah, good morning Joe. Thanks for happy Friday.Um, yeah. I mean, valuations are clearly stretched. They're high. They're frothy ...

What do you make of all four indices, the three major ones in the Russell hitting highs at the exact same time on the day after the Fed rate cut when the day of the rate cut the indices actually closed lower with the exception of the Russell I should say. Historically over this cycle particularly we have seen some very mixed results on the actual day of trading followed by sort of a decisive result. It was a strange SEP and I think that a lot of what happened on Wednesday's trading was trying to decipher so ...

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - The market may see a similar situation to a year ago with potential for rising inflation and two-year Treasury yields around 35%, possibly moving higher [1] - Economic growth alongside rising inflation isn't necessarily negative [1] - Small caps are potentially underowned, with futures short on Russell, suggesting lower rates could benefit them [1] Investment Strategies & Portfolio Allocation - The firm suggests not being long bonds and considering a lower bond allocation, with alternatives like gold for balance [1] - Diversification is crucial, with potential opportunities in international markets (e g, China) and small caps [1] - Consider diversifying from the "Magnificent Seven" (Mag 7) due to their concentrated exposure [1] Individual Stock Picks & Sector Focus - Axon, a maker of body cams and tasers, is highlighted as a potentially good investment with 30% type growth [1] - AI is a significant theme for the next 3-5 years, but diversification beyond chip manufacturers is recommended, including data centers, cooling systems, and energy companies [1][2] Valuation & Risk Management - Overconcentration in a few AI chip names carries significant risk [2] - The traditional valuation game may not always work, as seen with Nvidia and Broadcom, where earnings eventually justified high valuations [1] - Stocks hitting highs often continue to make new highs, while stocks hitting lows can potentially go to zero [1]

Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - Goldman Sachs encourages clients to stay invested and deploy incremental capital over 6-18 months, anticipating potential drawdowns [2] - The market has an 80% probability of experiencing a 10% drawdown, but valuations are not always reliable predictors of market performance [3] - Family offices are looking to decrease cash holdings by 30% over the next 12 months, shifting towards public and private equities [5] - There is significant "right tail risk" in the market, suggesting potential for further upside [7] Economic Factors & Fed Policy - $73 trillion is sitting in money market funds, which could move into risk assets as rates decline [8] - The Fed anticipates a slowdown followed by reacceleration, driven by fiscal and monetary stimulus, and a weaker dollar [9] - Fiscal stimulus is expected to increase cash flow for consumers and corporations [10] AI & Earnings - AI capex has doubled in the last two years, from $150 billion to $300 billion, but remains at 50% of cash flows, unlike the tech bubble [12][13] - The top five stocks have a return on equity (ROE) of 65% and grew over 20% in the first half of the year [14] - The market is more driven by earnings than the overall economy [16] Market Positioning & Sentiment - Client sentiment is mixed, with wealth management clients being neutral to risk-on [4] - Hedge funds are at the 40th percentile of net long positioning, and mutual funds are holding $170 billion in cash, indicating relatively light positioning [6] - The market is expected to hover around current levels until the end of the year, with a moderate upward trend in 2026 [17] Small Caps vs Large/Mid Caps - Small caps have been performing well, but last year the S&P outperformed small caps despite rate cuts and GDP growth [18][19] - Goldman Sachs prefers large and mid-cap stocks [19]