Market Cycle Analysis - The cryptocurrency industry observes Bitcoin tends to peak in Q4 of post-halving years, potentially recurring in Q4 2025 [3] - The industry notes current social interest in crypto is significantly lower compared to 2021 and 2017, indicating a different market dynamic [7] - The analysis suggests the recent Bitcoin bull market resembles the 2019 pattern, with a potential bare market rally to $100,000 before further decline into summer 2026 [9][10] - The report considers a scenario where Bitcoin's top occurred before the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion, similar to 2019, suggesting continued bleeding until significant monetary easing [14][15] Monetary Policy Impact - The analysis posits that substantial Bitcoin breakout requires looser monetary policy, likely triggered by an S&P 500 crash [16] - The report mentions the Federal Reserve chair is likely to be replaced in the summer of 2026, potentially leading to aggressive rate cuts [17] Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoins - The industry is bullish on Bitcoin dominance due to the end of quantitative tightening (QT), drawing parallels to 2019 [20][21] - The analysis anticipates a potential spike in Bitcoin dominance, followed by altcoin lows against Bitcoin until looser monetary policy is implemented [22] Potential Bare Market Scenarios - The report speculates on a bare market lasting until approximately October 2026, potentially resembling the 2019 pattern due to a non-euphoric top [23][26] - The analysis suggests a possible Bitcoin drop to $60,000-$70,000 by the summer, potentially marking a low before a rebound [35] - The industry notes Bitcoin tends to return to the 200-week moving average in midterm years, currently around $56,000 [34]

Market Sentiment & Social Interest - The crypto industry observes that despite Bitcoin's price reaching $107,000 and hitting new all-time highs recently, social interest remains surprisingly low compared to the euphoria of 2021 [1] - The social risk indicator, comprising YouTube subscribers/views, Twitter followers/exchanges, and layer ones on X, is near zero, indicating minimal interest in the crypto space [1] - Historically, social interest above 8.9% has indicated retail arrival, but current levels suggest a lack of new entrants despite rising prices [1] - YouTube channels that averaged 4 million views a day in 2021 are now only averaging around 700,000 views a day, reflecting decreased engagement [16] Monetary Policy & Economic Factors - The analysis draws parallels between the current market and the quantitative tightening phase of the previous cycle, noting that social interest remained low until rate cuts and quantitative easing occurred [1] - The industry suggests that a combination of monetary policy, inflation impacting individuals, and negative connotations associated with crypto scams contribute to the low social interest [8][10] - The report mentions that monetary policy isn't really that supportive, macro risks with inflation and the unemployment rate that we haven't really dealt with much in prior cycles with the exception of the pandemic [37] Bitcoin vs Altcoins - The report indicates that social interest is largely driven by movements in the altcoin market, not Bitcoin [4] - The analysis suggests that many crypto participants are primarily focusing on Bitcoin, with altcoins struggling to maintain momentum against Bitcoin's dominance [12][38] - The industry notes that altcoins did not outperform Bitcoin during the quantitative tightening phase of 2019, and a durable alt season requires a return of retail interest [33][21] Future Outlook & Potential Catalysts - The report identifies potential catalysts for increased social interest, including accelerating Bitcoin prices, the industry focusing on more important things than scams, and supportive monetary policy [35][36] - The industry believes that until monetary policy changes and all Bitcoin pairs go to the range lows, altcoins will likely continue to struggle against Bitcoin [39] - The analysis emphasizes that all Bitcoin pairs going to the range lows is a necessary but not sufficient condition to see the durable outperformance of altcoins on their Bitcoin pairs [20]