“The biggest concern I have for the denim market in 2026 is the potential for more geopolitical and economic instability,” she said. “The potential impact of geopolitical tensions on our industry and the fragility of the global economic environment is harder to predict. Inflation and uncertainty can shift brand and consumer priorities, and regional conflicts can impact supply chains in ways we cannot anticipate. We saw this most prominently in 2025 upon the announcement of the new U.S. trade tariffs and dis ...

Core Insights - Companies heavily reliant on China for product sourcing are experiencing significant gross margin degradation due to tariffs, with micro-cap stocks seeing declines of 50-700 basis points [1] - Despite challenges, two micro-cap companies have successfully adjusted to tariffs through cost restructuring and sourcing diversification, making them appear attractively valued [2] Company Summaries Crown Crafts, Inc. (CRWS) - Crown Crafts specializes in infant, toddler, and juvenile products, with Walmart and Amazon as key customers, contributing 47% and 19% of fiscal 2025 gross sales respectively [3] - In the latest quarter, Crown Crafts faced a 3.1% decline in sales and a 70 basis point erosion in gross margin due to tariffs, yet managed to increase EPS year-over-year from $0.08 to $0.11 [4] - Administrative and marketing costs decreased by 13.6% year-over-year, with further cost savings expected from management's consolidation plan by fiscal 2027 [5] - The stock is trading at 3.2X trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA, significantly lower than industry averages, with a current dividend yield of 11.72% [6] Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company (HBB) - Hamilton Beach operates in two segments: Home and Commercial Products (74% of total revenues) and Health (26% of total revenues), with Walmart and Amazon accounting for approximately 29% and 24% of revenues respectively [7][9] - The company experienced a one-time 690 basis point hit to gross margin from tariffs but has implemented pricing actions and diversified manufacturing to mitigate future risks [10] - The Health segment's operating profit turned positive, and the premiumization strategy through the Lotus brand has shown strong sell-through performance [11] - A 15.2% year-over-year drop in revenue was attributed to trade paralysis among major retail customers, but there are signs of recovery as trade conditions stabilize [12] - The stock is currently trading at 6.26X trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA, with support around a tangible book value of $11.48/share [13] Market Context - Both companies have significant exposure to consumer spending, particularly through Walmart, which is managing macroeconomic challenges effectively [14]

Core Viewpoint - Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company experienced a significant decline in third-quarter 2025 results, with revenues down 15.2% year over year, reflecting ongoing challenges from tariffs and weak consumer demand [3][2][16] Financial Performance - Third-quarter 2025 revenues were reported at $132.8 million, down from $156.7 million in the previous year [3] - Gross profit fell 36% to $28 million, with the gross margin decreasing to 21.1% from 28% due to a one-time $5 million cost impact from a 125% tariff on Chinese imports [3][4] - Operating profit decreased to $2.9 million from $10.6 million, while net income slightly declined to $1.7 million, or 12 cents per diluted share, from $1.9 million, or 14 cents per diluted share, in the prior-year quarter [3] Cost Management - Selling, general and administrative expenses decreased by 25% year over year to $25.1 million, primarily due to reduced personnel costs and lower stock-based compensation [4] - Despite cost savings, the one-time tariff cost led to a significant drop in operating margin to 2.2% from 6.8% a year earlier [4] Cash Flow and Debt - Net cash used for operating activities in the first nine months of 2025 was $14.6 million, a reversal from $35.2 million in cash provided in the prior year, primarily due to a $27.5 million reduction in accounts payable [5] - As of September 30, 2025, net debt increased to $32.8 million from $22.5 million a year ago, with total debt remaining steady at $50 million [6] Management Insights - CEO R. Scott Tidey described the quarter as a period of "sequential improvement," noting normalization in retailer purchasing patterns and improved trade relations with China [7] - CFO Sally Cunningham indicated that the gross margin decline was largely temporary, with expectations for recovery as cost-saving measures and normalization of ordering patterns take effect [8] Revenue Drivers - The 15.2% year-over-year revenue drop was mainly due to lower volumes in the U.S. consumer business and a delay in orders from a major retailer [9] - Strength in the Commercial and Health segments partially offset this weakness [9] Tariff Impact - The temporary 125% tariff spike on Chinese imports compressed the gross margin by 370 basis points, with most of the impact absorbed by the company rather than passed on to customers [10] - Price increases implemented in June and August were accepted by retail partners, helping to mitigate future cost risks [10] Future Outlook - Hamilton Beach did not provide quantitative guidance due to ongoing tariff-related uncertainty but expects further recovery in top-line and margin in the fourth quarter [12] - CFO Cunningham noted that while recovery may not be linear in 2026, annual performance should benefit from actions taken in 2025 [13] Strategic Developments - The Hamilton Beach Health subsidiary achieved its first operating profit, with new partnerships and a 50% expansion in the patient subscription base [14] - The company continued its share repurchase program and maintained dividend payments, indicating confidence in its long-term outlook [15] Overall Assessment - The third-quarter results reflect progress in stabilizing the business post-tariff volatility, with management cautiously optimistic about future profitability driven by cost controls and product diversification [16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net sales decline of 10.2% in Q3, with organic sales decreasing by 11.1% when excluding foreign currency benefits [20][34] - Adjusted EBITDA was $76.6 million, a decrease of $29.7 million year-over-year, primarily due to lower sales volumes and reduced gross margins [35][36] - Gross margins contracted by 110 basis points to 37.8%, driven by unfavorable mix, tariffs, and inflation [21][35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Pet Care reported a net sales decrease of 9.6%, with organic sales down 11.4%, primarily due to targeted stop shipments during tariff-related pricing negotiations [38][39] - Home and Garden net sales decreased by 10.3%, negatively impacted by a cold and wet start to the season [46] - Home and Personal Care saw a reported net sales decline of 10.8%, with organic sales also down 11.4%, driven by softness in personal care and home appliance categories [52][53] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall North American Companion Animal category declined in the low single digits, while European consumer sentiment weakened, impacting sales [40][45] - In Latin America, organic net sales grew in the low double digits, predominantly in the chews category [41] - The Home and Garden category experienced lower total sales, but Spectracide gained market share in pest control products [47] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on protecting its balance sheet and maintaining a nimble stance during volatile times, with a target of approximately $160 million in free cash flow for the fiscal year [26][60] - There is an ongoing effort to diversify the supplier base and develop non-Chinese sourcing alternatives to mitigate tariff impacts [16][17] - The company is actively pursuing M&A opportunities to accelerate growth in its pet and home and garden businesses, while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation [29][83] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in overcoming near-term tariff-related volatility and emphasized the importance of making difficult decisions for long-term health [19][66] - There are signs of improving macroeconomic conditions, with expectations for consumer confidence to stabilize as geopolitical tensions subside [65][66] - The company anticipates a strong start to Q4, with improved sales performance and positive momentum in the Home and Garden division [23][66] Other Important Information - The company executed cost reduction activities, expecting to reduce costs by over $50 million in fiscal 2025 [15] - Share repurchases totaled approximately 900,000 shares during Q3, with a total of about 4 million shares repurchased since the HHI transaction [31] - The company is streamlining its global business and reducing fixed costs while diversifying its sourcing footprint [59] Q&A Session Summary Question: How much sales were left on the table by stopping shipments in Q2, and what impact lingers into Q4? - The estimated sales left on the table in Q3 is around $30 million, with a significantly lower impact expected in Q4 [72] Question: Why is guidance still difficult despite improved clarity on tariffs? - The company emphasized the complexity of the situation, noting that Q3 results were distorted due to significant operational changes and tariff impacts, making it challenging to provide accurate guidance [75][76] Question: Can you discuss your capital allocation strategy in a soft consumer environment? - The company believes the market is undervalued and plans to continue share repurchases while pursuing M&A opportunities to grow its pet and home and garden businesses [82][83]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported diluted earnings per share of $0.45 for Q1 fiscal 2025, a slight decrease from $0.46 in the same period last year [8] - Total sales increased by 5.8% to $1.161 billion from $1.097 billion year-over-year [9] - Gross profit rose by 8.1% driven by a 5.8% increase in sales and a 100 basis point increase in gross margin rate to 43.8% [34] - Selling and store operating expenses increased by 10.3% to $368.8 million, primarily due to new stores [34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable store sales decreased by 1.8% year-over-year, with the West Division outperforming this decline [20] - Sales growth was strongest in laminate and luxury vinyl plank, wood, and installation materials [22] - Connected customer sales increased by 2.1%, now accounting for approximately 18.3% of total sales [24] - Sales to professional customers continued to grow, accounting for about 50% of total sales [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. is now the largest country of manufacture for the company, accounting for approximately 27% of products sold, up from 20% in fiscal 2018 [14] - China accounted for 18% of products sold in fiscal 2024, down from 25% in fiscal 2023 and 50% in fiscal 2018 [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to open 20 new warehouse format stores in fiscal 2025, down from a previous expectation of 25 [18] - A tariff steering committee has been organized to manage tariff complexities and maintain operational agility [11] - The company is focusing on sourcing diversification to find high-quality products at competitive prices [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed concerns about high volatility and uncertainty in the economic environment, which could impact consumer spending [10] - The company is proactively implementing flexible plans to navigate potential economic downturns [10] - The updated fiscal 2025 guidance reflects the uncertain economic environment, with total sales expected to range from $4.66 billion to $4.8 billion [40] Other Important Information - The company maintained a strong balance sheet with $949.8 million in unrestricted liquidity [38] - The effective tax rate increased to 22% from 12.8% due to a decrease in excess tax benefits related to stock-based compensation [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Follow-up on guidance and tariff impact - Management confirmed that they have experience dealing with tariffs and are negotiating necessary price increases to offset impacts [46][47] Question: Perception of business weakness and guidance reduction - Management acknowledged the difficulty in predicting consumer demand but emphasized strong execution and market share growth [57][59] Question: Price increases across the industry - Management noted that they have seen price increases from competitors but have not yet raised prices beyond normal adjustments [63][64] Question: Store unit growth criteria - Management stated that the decision to reduce store openings was based on current market conditions and sales performance [68][69] Question: Acceleration in sales trends - Management indicated that improvements in sales were consistent and not solely due to weather or tariff announcements [78][80] Question: Sourcing advantages post-tariff - Management confirmed that they are sourcing from more countries now than in the past and do not anticipate a significant change in their sourcing advantage [84][86]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported diluted earnings per share of $0.45 for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, a slight decrease from $0.46 in the same period last year [5][6] - Total sales increased by 5.8% to $1,161 million from $1,097 million year-over-year [6][30] - Gross profit rose by 8.1% driven by the sales increase and a 100 basis point increase in gross margin rate to 43.8% [30][34] - Selling and store operating expenses increased by 10.3% to $368.8 million, primarily due to new stores [30][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable store sales decreased by 1.8% year-over-year, with the West Division outperforming this decline [16][17] - Sales growth was strongest in laminate and luxury vinyl plank, wood, and installation materials [18] - Connected customer sales increased by 2.1%, now accounting for approximately 18.3% of total sales [19][20] - Sales to professional customers continued to grow, accounting for about 50% of total sales [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. is now the largest country of manufacture for the company, accounting for approximately 27% of products sold, up from 20% in fiscal 2018 [11] - China accounted for 18% of products sold, down from 25% in fiscal 2023 and 50% in fiscal 2018 [11] - The company anticipates receipts from China to approximate mid to low single digits of total receipts by the end of fiscal 2025 [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on managing tariff impacts through vendor negotiations and sourcing diversification strategies [9][10] - Plans to open 20 new warehouse format stores in fiscal 2025, down from a previous expectation of 25 [14][15] - The company aims to maintain its competitive advantage through a broad assortment and innovative product offerings [12][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed uncertainty regarding consumer spending due to economic volatility and potential recession risks [7][36] - The company is proactively implementing flexible plans to navigate economic challenges [7][36] - Updated fiscal 2025 guidance reflects a cautious outlook, with total sales expected to increase by 5% to 8% [37][39] Other Important Information - The company maintains a strong liquidity position with $949.8 million in unrestricted liquidity [35] - General and administrative expenses increased by 3.5% to $69.1 million, attributed to investments in store growth [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on tariff impact and pricing strategy - Management confirmed that they have experience managing tariffs and are negotiating with vendors to offset impacts, expecting modest price increases if necessary [44][46] Question: Concerns about business weakness and guidance reduction - Management acknowledged the challenges but emphasized strong execution and market share growth, while being prepared for various scenarios [56][58] Question: Store growth strategy and criteria for adjustments - The company plans to open 20 new stores based on current market conditions, with flexibility to adjust if necessary [66][68] Question: Impact of tariffs on gross margin - Management aims to maintain gross margin rates despite tariff impacts, with a focus on managing gross profit dollars [102]