Spirits industry transition

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: 中国烈酒追踪:年度股东大会前后的关键趋势检查;预计端午节消费趋势疲软,预付款滞后::
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-27 07:30
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the spirits industry or specific companies within it Core Insights - The spirits industry is currently experiencing a transition period, with companies focusing on stability, channel profits, and product quality rather than aggressive growth targets [3] - There is a noted weak trend in consumption around the Dragon Boat Festival, with only Moutai showing a slight increase in prepayment compared to the previous year [1][6] - Companies are increasingly targeting younger consumers and expanding their brand rejuvenation efforts to capture this demographic [3] Summary by Company Moutai - Moutai has introduced new promotional policies for residential and wedding banquets to stimulate demand, including cash rebates and complimentary honeymoon trips for larger events [13] - The wholesale price of original case Feitian Moutai decreased from Rmb2,165 to Rmb2,125, while unpacked Feitian Moutai's price fell from Rmb2,080 to Rmb2,060 [2][22] Wuliangye - Wuliangye's wholesale price remained stable at Rmb950, with prepayment rates in the first quarter of 2025 reported at 40%-50% [6][22] Guojiao 1573 - Guojiao 1573's wholesale price decreased from Rmb860 to Rmb855, with prepayment rates around 40%-45% [6][22] Yanghe - Yanghe reported a prepayment rate of approximately 45% and is focusing on expanding its sales network [6][8] Gujing - Gujing aims for nationwide expansion and a focus on sub-premium strategies, with a sales network covering over 70% of regions nationwide [7][8] Yingjia - Yingjia targets total sales of Rmb7.6 billion for 2025, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year increase, and plans to improve dividend payout ratios [11][13] Market Trends - The retail sales of liquor and tobacco in China grew by 5.1% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in the market [13] - Spirits companies are focusing on improving retail sell-through, inventory destocking, and channel expansion amid industry-wide growth deceleration [13]