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天风证券:市场正步入新一轮交易脉冲的启动窗口
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-09 00:47
Market Overview - In December, the market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 11 consecutive gains, reaching the 4000-point mark, indicating a sustained upward trend [1][7] - The Federal Reserve implemented an interest rate cut in December, and with the potential new chair taking office in 2026, the monetary policy path may become clearer, improving global market liquidity [1][7] - The Central Economic Work Conference held in late December successfully outlined new growth stabilization policies, which are gradually being implemented, further enhancing market risk appetite [1][7] Fund Flows - In December, new issuance of equity public funds decreased to 590.14 million shares, down 126.29 million from the previous month, marking an 86.11% percentile over the past three years [2][9] - The net subscription of stock ETFs in December was 937.89 billion, a significant increase of 760.89 billion from the previous month, with broad-based ETFs being the main direction of fund inflow [2][9] - Private equity securities funds continued to grow, with a total scale of 7.04 trillion in November, reflecting a recovery trend in new issuances [2][9] Northbound Capital - In December, the average daily trading volume of northbound capital decreased to 1894.04 billion, down 14.39% from the previous month, with its share of total A-share trading falling to 10.07% [3][10] - The margin financing balance increased to 2.54 trillion by the end of December, up 2.71% month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in trading activity [3][10] Insurance and Banking - In Q3 2025, the net increase in equity assets held by property and life insurance companies was 8639.94 billion, with their stock and fund holdings accounting for 15.49% of total asset utilization, a continuous increase over three quarters [4][11] - In December, the number of newly issued wealth management products rose to 7514, up 12.98% from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the issuance of financial products [4][12] Capital Market Indicators - The three main capital flow indicators showed a slight increase in trading pulse, with a value of -0.03 as of December 31, indicating a stabilization in market trading sentiment [5][12] - The overall net reduction in industrial capital in December was 507.84 billion, with a daily average net reduction of 22.08 billion, maintaining a trend of net reduction [4][12]