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阶段震荡无碍机构看多债市 建议借由组合策略提升投资韧性
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-17 13:46
Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a period of volatility, with discussions on whether the "bond bull" market can continue being a focal point among industry experts [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 16, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose by 1 basis point to approximately 1.66%, reflecting a slight upward trend in the interbank bond market [2]. - Despite various factors such as a strong equity market and increased government bond net issuance causing fluctuations, most industry experts remain optimistic about the bond market's future performance [2]. Group 2: Economic and Monetary Policy Insights - Export data for June showed a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, driven by factors like "export grabbing" and enhanced corporate competitiveness, although this growth is expected to be unsustainable [2]. - The current monetary policy is perceived to have room for further easing, with expectations that interest rates and reserve requirements will remain stable in the near term [2]. - The central bank's stance is viewed as supportive, with ongoing liquidity injections anticipated due to the global instability and the weak economic fundamentals [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - In the current market environment, a multi-strategy approach is emphasized, as traditional duration strategies are less likely to yield excess returns [3]. - The focus is on combining trading strategies, structural strategies, and utilizing derivatives to create multiple sources of income, rather than relying solely on absolute interest rate levels [3]. - The recommendation is to maintain a balanced portfolio with equities as the core allocation and government bonds as a stabilizer, while keeping a neutral stance on credit bonds due to their historically low spreads [3].