Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent and WTI crude oil price forecasts to $71 and $67 per barrel, respectively, from $66 and $62, due to anticipated longer disruptions in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran [1] - Brent prices have increased over 36% and WTI prices have risen about 39% since the onset of the war on February 28, with both benchmarks briefly exceeding $119, marking their highest levels since mid-2022 [2] - Goldman Sachs now expects 21 days of low oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz at 10% of normal levels, followed by a 30-day gradual recovery, an adjustment from their previous estimate of a 10-day disruption [3] Group 2 - Goldman incorporated a larger policy response in its models, estimating that 254 million barrels from global strategic petroleum reserve releases and 31 million barrels of Russian crude draws would mitigate the impact on global commercial oil inventories by nearly 50% [4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles to address the surge in global crude prices since the war began, with the U.S. contributing the majority of this supply [4] - In Goldman’s base case scenario, it is assumed that IEA member states will not fully release the 400 million barrels available due to logistical limits on draws from the OECD strategic petroleum reserve [5]