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Can DIS Stock Maintain Momentum With Streaming Wins and Parks Growth?
ZACKS· 2025-12-30 16:01
Core Insights - Disney is at a pivotal moment as its streaming segment shows improved profitability while theme park operations remain robust despite industry challenges [2] Streaming Segment Performance - The direct-to-consumer operating income for streaming reached $352 million in Q4 fiscal 2025, marking a 39% increase year over year [2] - Full-year streaming operating income totaled $1.3 billion, a significant recovery from a $4 billion loss three years prior [3] - Combined subscriptions for Disney+ and Hulu reached 196 million, with an addition of 12.4 million subscribers from the previous quarter [3] - Disney+ Core achieved 132 million subscribers, and plans to fully integrate Hulu into Disney+ by 2026 were announced [3] - Management anticipates 10% operating margins for Disney+ and Hulu in fiscal 2026 [3] Theme Parks Performance - The Experiences segment reported a record operating income of $1.9 billion in Q4, up 13%, and a full-year operating income of $10 billion, up 8% [4] - Domestic parks saw a 9% increase in operating income to $920 million, while international parks surged 25% to $375 million, driven by strong performance at Disneyland Paris [4] - Despite a slight 1% decline in domestic attendance, guest spending increased by 5% in Q1 fiscal 2026 [5] - The company projects high single-digit percentage growth for Experiences' operating income in fiscal 2026, with growth expected to be weighted towards the second half [5] Strategic Outlook - Disney's shift towards streaming validates its direct-to-consumer strategy, while the parks continue to thrive through premium pricing [6] - Management forecasts double-digit adjusted earnings growth through fiscal 2027, supported by rising streaming margins [6] Industry Comparisons - Comcast's Universal theme parks experienced a 19% revenue growth to $2.72 billion, driven by the opening of Epic Universe [7] - Six Flags reported a 1% increase in attendance but a 2% decline in revenues, attributing the decline to promotional activities and changes in attendance demographics [8] Valuation and Estimates - Disney shares have returned 1.1% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector's 4.8% decline [9] - The stock is trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings ratio of 16.81X, compared to the industry average of 18.74X [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Disney's earnings is $6.60 for fiscal 2026, indicating an 11.3% year-over-year growth [15]
Comcast(CMCSA) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-31 13:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue increased by 2%, benefiting from core growth drivers in connectivity and content, which collectively represent nearly 60% of total revenue and grew at a high single-digit rate this quarter [20][21] - EBITDA grew by 1% this quarter, adjusted EPS increased by 3% to $1.25, and free cash flow generated was $4.5 billion, with $2.9 billion returned to shareholders, including $1.7 billion in share repurchases [21][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Broadband subscriber losses totaled 226,000 due to competitive pressures and seasonal factors, but early signs of stabilization in Connect activity and voluntary churn were noted [21][22] - Broadband ARPU grew by 3.5%, with a 20% increase in the share of new connects choosing premium gig speeds [22][24] - Business Services revenue increased by 6%, with EBITDA growth of nearly 5%, aided by the acquisition of Nitell [24][25] - Parks revenue increased by 19% due to the successful opening of Epic Universe, although EBITDA growth was limited to 4% due to soft opening costs [27][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Xfinity Mobile achieved a record quarter with 378,000 new lines added, bringing total lines to 8.5 million and penetration to 14% of the residential broadband base [11][24] - Peacock's revenue grew by over 20% year-over-year, contributing significantly to NBCUniversal's total volume [16][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a go-to-market strategy for broadband, emphasizing pricing transparency and customer experience improvements to build a loyal customer base [5][10] - The successful opening of Epic Universe reflects the company's long-term strategy to expand reach and enter new markets [14][15] - The media segment is leveraging a combination of live sports and entertainment to drive results, with a strong lineup of upcoming events [16][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the intense competitive landscape in broadband, particularly from fixed wireless and fiber competitors, but expressed confidence in the company's strategic initiatives [38][39] - The company expects healthy broadband ARPU growth over the year, despite potential moderation due to the rollout of new pricing structures [22][58] - Management is optimistic about the long-term growth potential of the media business, particularly with the upcoming NBA season and the integration of Peacock [70][72] Other Important Information - The company anticipates a cash tax benefit of approximately $1 billion annually due to recent tax legislation, which supports infrastructure investments [33][63] - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the growing demand for broadband and entertainment services, with a focus on innovation and customer experience [34][86] Q&A Session Summary Question: Early reactions to broadband adjustments and competitive landscape - Management noted that the competitive landscape remains intense, with fixed wireless and fiber competitors active, but early results from new pricing strategies are encouraging [38][39] Question: Impact of involuntary disconnects and Project Genesis - A slight uptick in non-pay disconnects was observed, but overall stabilization in Connects and voluntary churn was noted, with network upgrades on track [46][47] Question: Everyday pricing and ARPU growth - Management indicated that while everyday pricing may moderate ARPU growth in the near term, they expect healthy growth in the long run as more customers transition to new packages [53][58] Question: Convergence revenue growth expectations - Convergence revenue growth of 3.7% was reported, with expectations for some pressure in the short term but potential for reacceleration in the future [61][65] Question: M&A interest and strategic partnerships - Management emphasized a disciplined approach to M&A, focusing on smaller acquisitions and strategic partnerships, particularly in business services [89][95]