Structural headwind
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Will Q4 Be Weaker for Home Depot as Storm Comparisons Intensify?
ZACKS· 2025-12-15 17:06
Core Insights - Home Depot is facing a challenging fourth quarter in fiscal 2025 due to intensified year-over-year weather comparisons, with management acknowledging that third-quarter performance fell short of expectations because of the lack of storm activity [1][3] - The absence of storm-driven demand is expected to create structural headwinds for revenues, leading to a revised forecast of slightly positive comparable sales for fiscal 2025, down from a prior estimate of 1% growth [3][8] Financial Performance - Comparable sales fell by 1.5% in October, primarily impacted by the absence of storms, indicating that weather-related demand issues may persist into the fourth quarter [2][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is projected at $38.18 billion, representing a decline of nearly 4% from the previous year [4][11] - For the current financial year, the sales estimate implies a year-over-year growth of 3.2%, while earnings per share are expected to decline by 4.5% [10][12] Market Position - Home Depot shares have decreased by 12.4% over the past year, compared to an 18.3% decline in the industry [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.83, which is higher than the industry average of 21.58, and carries a Value Score of F [9] Industry Context - Other companies in the sector, such as Floor & Decor and Lowe's, are also experiencing similar structural demand challenges, with Floor & Decor reporting a 1.2% decline in comparable store sales and Lowe's showing a modest 0.4% increase amid consumer anxiety and spending pressures [5][6]