March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Monday closed down -0.15 (-0.99%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -3.00 (-0.70%). Sugar prices settled lower on Monday due to higher Indian sugar output and a slide in crude oil prices.  The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported Monday that Indian sugar production from Oct 1-Dec 15 jumped +28% y/y to 7.8 MMT. More News from Barchart Weakness in crude oil (CLF26) undercuts ethanol prices and may prompt the world's sugar mills to diver ...

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices settled lower due to concerns that India may increase its sugar exports beyond expectations, with potential exports rising to 4 million metric tons (MMT) instead of the previously anticipated 2 MMT [2] - NY sugar futures recently hit a 4.25-year low, while London sugar fell to a 3.5-week low, influenced by the outlook for higher sugar production in Brazil [5] - The Brazilian real's strength limited losses in sugar prices, as it reached a 15-month high against the dollar, discouraging export sales from Brazilian sugar producers [3] Group 2: Production and Export Dynamics - Brazil's sugar mills are prioritizing sugar production over ethanol, with a reported increase in sugarcane crushed for sugar from 49.15% to 55.00% year-on-year [5][6] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of August rose by 16% year-on-year to 3,615 thousand metric tons (MT), although cumulative output for 2025-26 is down 4.7% year-on-year to 22.886 MMT [5] - The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association has requested permission to export 2 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, highlighting India's position as the world's second-largest sugar producer [7] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Positioning - An excessive short position by funds in NY sugar could lead to gains in any short-covering rally, with net-short positions increasing by 32,849 to 182,608, the highest in nearly six years [4]

Group 1 - Sugar prices experienced moderate losses, with October NY world sugar closing down 0.11 (-0.69%) and October London ICE white sugar down 1.70 (-0.35%) [1] - The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association has requested permission to export 2 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar for the 2025/26 season, which may impact global sugar supply dynamics [1] - Brazil's sugar production outlook is positive, with a reported 16% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the first half of August, reaching 3.615 million metric tons (MT) [3] Group 2 - Brazil's sugar mills are prioritizing sugar production over ethanol, leading to an increase in sugarcane crushed for sugar, driven by drier cane crops [4] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of 231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, although this is an improvement from a 4.88 million metric ton shortfall in 2024/25 [5] - Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, Conab, has reduced its 2025/26 sugar production estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat [6]

The U.S. doesn’t grow enough cane sugar to sweeten all the soda we drink https://t.co/N7bDABd8yj ...