March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Wednesday closed up +0.04 (+0.27%), and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) closed down -0.10 (-0.02%). Sugar prices recovered from early losses on Wednesday and settled mixed.  Short covering emerged in sugar futures on Wednesday after the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) rallied to a 1.75-year high against the dollar, discouraging export sales from Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart Sugar prices initially fell on Wednesday amid higher output in India, the ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Monday closed up +0.15 (+1.05%), and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) closed up +1.60 (+0.39%). Sugar prices rallied sharply on Monday, with NY sugar posting a 2.5-week high and London sugar posting a 1.5-week high.  Strength in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) is bullish for sugar prices.  The real jumped to a 1.75-year high against the dollar on Monday, discouraging export sales from Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart Sugar prices also have positive ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is down -0.15 (-1.01%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is down -3.70 (-0.90%). Sugar prices are moving lower today, with London sugar falling to a 2.5-month low.  Higher global sugar production has been pressuring prices.  Last Wednesday, Unica reported that Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through December rose by +0.9% y/y to 40.222 MMT.  Also, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 50.82% in 2025/36 from 48.16% in 2024/25. ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing an upward trend due to a rally in the Brazilian real, which has reached a 1.5-month high against the dollar, leading to short covering in sugar futures [1] - The global sugar market is facing a surplus, with estimates for the 2025/26 global sugar surplus raised to 4.7 million metric tons (MMT) [4] Group 1: Brazilian Sugar Market - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season has increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 MMT, with a higher ratio of cane crushed for sugar [3] - The stronger Brazilian real is discouraging export sales from sugar producers in Brazil [1] Group 2: Indian Sugar Market - India's sugar production for the 2025-26 season has risen by 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with the overall production estimate increased to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year growth [5] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - An excessively long position in London ICE white sugar futures could lead to exacerbated price declines, as funds have increased their net long positions to a record high [2] - The outlook for a global sugar surplus is negatively impacting prices, with projections indicating a decrease in surplus for the 2026/27 season [4]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed movements due to various factors including production increases in Brazil and India, as well as currency fluctuations affecting export dynamics [1][2][3][4][5][6] Group 1: Sugar Production and Supply - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season has increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 million metric tons (MMT) [2] - The ratio of cane crushed for sugar in Brazil has risen to 50.82% for the 2025/26 season, up from 48.16% in the previous season [2] - India's sugar output from October 1 to January 15 has surged by 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with the overall production estimate for 2025/26 raised to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [4] - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been increased to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT [6] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The Brazilian real has strengthened against the dollar, reaching a 1.5-month high, which discourages export sales from Brazilian sugar producers [1] - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - Covrig Analytics has raised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 4.7 MMT, up from 4.1 MMT, but projects a decline in surplus to 1.4 MMT for 2026/27 due to weak prices discouraging production [3] - The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil and stronger production in India is bearish for sugar prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing fluctuations due to varying production levels in major producing countries, with a notable increase in output from India and Brazil leading to bearish market conditions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 (SBH26) increased by +0.26 (+1.77%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 (SWH26) rose by +7.20 (+1.72%) due to a weaker dollar prompting short-covering in sugar futures [1]. - Sugar prices have recently retreated to three-week lows, primarily influenced by increased production in India and Brazil [2]. Group 2: Production Insights - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported a significant increase in Indian sugar production, with a +43% year-on-year rise to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) for the period of October-November [2]. - Brazil's Conab raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, reflecting a bullish outlook for Brazilian sugar output [3]. - The ISMA also revised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, marking an increase of +18.8% year-on-year [6]. Group 3: Global Supply Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4]. - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, up by +1.2 MMT from a previous estimate [5]. - The robust global sugar supply outlook has negatively impacted sugar prices since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [5].

Core Insights - Sugar prices have increased slightly, with March NY world sugar closing up by 0.27% and March London ICE white sugar up by 0.19, indicating a consolidation phase below recent highs [1][2] Supply Dynamics - India's food ministry is considering raising the price of ethanol for gasoline blending, which may lead sugar mills to prioritize ethanol production over sugar, potentially reducing sugar supplies [2] - India has allowed mills to export 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar for the 2025/26 season, a reduction from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, due to a quota system introduced after production issues [3] Production Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 MMT for 2025-26, a shift from a deficit of 2.916 MMT in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million metric tons in 2025-26 [4] Price Pressures - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices, with recent lows recorded in both London and NY sugar markets due to higher output in Brazil and expectations of a global surplus [5] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, has raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, contributing to bearish price sentiment [6] - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of October increased by 16.4% year-on-year, with a higher percentage of sugarcane being crushed for sugar compared to the previous year [6]