Supply - side Reform

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有色早报-20250724
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 08:33
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic macro situation is favorable for non - ferrous metals this week. The copper price has obvious support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to restocking opportunities around 7.6 - 7.7. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities. Zinc prices fluctuated upward this week, with short - term suggestions to observe the squeeze - out market and manage positions, and hold long - short positions in different markets. Nickel's short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends. Lead prices declined slightly this week, and it is expected to oscillate between 16800 - 17500 next week. Tin prices fluctuated widely this week, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Industrial silicon's supply is expected to decrease, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, with the disk expected to oscillate. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate, and the downward inflection point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [1][2][3][6][9][12][14] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the spot premium changed from 110 to 180, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 10, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged at 84556, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 9972. The spot import profit decreased by 340.21, and the March import profit decreased by 117.79 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Domestic macro is favorable. The waste - refined price difference has shrunk significantly, the scrap substitution effect is prominent, and the refined copper rod start - up rate has rebounded. The spot import window opened this week, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of long - position import logistics in the third and fourth quarters [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 100, the domestic alumina price increased by 8, and the SHFE social inventory data is incomplete. The aluminum LME inventory increased by 6350, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 100 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, and demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The supply and demand are expected to be balanced in July, and attention should be paid to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 20, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 40, and the zinc social inventory remained unchanged. The SHFE zinc exchange inventory remained unchanged, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1275, and the LME zinc cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 1275 [2] - **Market Analysis**: Zinc prices fluctuated upward this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, domestic social inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory is decreasing. There is a risk of short - squeeze in lead and zinc [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 550, and the spot import return increased by 794.56. The LME nickel inventory decreased by 2220, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 630 [3] - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains high, demand is weak, and both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories have increased slightly. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [3] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 100, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50 [3] - **Market Analysis**: Supply has decreased due to some passive production cuts by steel mills. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [3] Lead - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the spot premium increased by 5, the social inventory data is incomplete, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME lead inventory increased by 650, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 3000 [6] - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand has improved, but inventory accumulation is still expected. It is expected to oscillate between 16800 - 17500 next week [6] Tin - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the spot import return decreased by 5532.31, the spot export return increased by 4474.88, and the LME tin inventory decreased by 25. The LME cancelled warehouse receipts increased by 200 [9] - **Market Analysis**: Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and domestic inventory is rising. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 430, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 430, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 53 [12] - **Market Analysis**: The start - up rate of leading enterprises has decreased, and the supply is expected to decrease. The market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and the disk is expected to oscillate [12] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1350, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 1350, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 665 [14] - **Market Analysis**: Lithium carbonate futures prices have risen. The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate link is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate, and the downward inflection point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [14]