Summary of J.P. Morgan's 2025 Global Macro Conference Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Macro Economics - **Event**: 2025 Global Macro Conference held in New York on November 19 Key Points and Arguments Economic Outlook 1. **Short-term Resilience**: The global economy is perceived as resilient in the short term, driven by AI-related business investments and modest tax changes benefiting households in 1H26 [4][6][7] 2. **Long-term Risks**: Concerns persist regarding elevated fiscal deficits, potential backlash against executive power, and political complexities as midterm elections approach [4][6][7] 3. **Growth Projections**: The Wall Street consensus for US growth at 1.8% may be too low, with potential growth exceeding 3% [7][8] Political Dynamics 4. **Trump's Influence**: There is growing dissent against Trump's influence, with discussions on his potential lame duck status in 2026 following recent Democratic victories in elections [8][9] 5. **Midterm Elections**: The upcoming midterm elections are critical, with Democrats needing to win three seats to flip the House, indicating a competitive political landscape [8][9] Trade and Tariff Policies 6. **Tariff Revenue Risks**: The Supreme Court's ruling on the use of emergency powers for tariffs is uncertain, posing risks to tariff revenue collection [9][10][11] 7. **US-China Relations**: The US-China rivalry is likened to a new Cold War, with Taiwan's semiconductor industry viewed as a significant risk factor [10][11] Market Trends 8. **AI Boom**: The AI boom is seen as a significant tailwind for the economy, although identifying individual winners remains uncertain [12][13] 9. **Traditional vs. Crypto Markets**: Traditional markets are expected to outperform crypto and private markets, with a forecast of a weaker USD [15][16] 10. **Commodity Prices**: Gold prices are expected to rise, while oil prices are projected to decline due to excess supply [16][17] Interest Rates and Fiscal Policy 11. **Interest Rate Projections**: Long-term interest rates are anticipated to rise, with a global repricing expected [17][18] 12. **Fiscal Dynamics**: Rising fiscal deficits and higher debt issuance are straining global government debt markets, with potential implications for interest rates and economic stability [64][65] Investor Sentiment 13. **Investor Survey Insights**: A survey conducted during the conference indicated that investors expect modest upside for the S&P 500 and stable US Treasury yields, with AI being viewed as both a significant risk and a tailwind [19][22][23] 14. **Asset Class Performance**: Respondents expect US equities and gold to outperform other asset classes, with a notable percentage anticipating gold prices to exceed $5,000/oz by the end of 2026 [24][46] Dollar Dominance 15. **USD Depreciation Risks**: While dollar dominance is expected to persist, there are risks of gradual depreciation due to internal economic policies and geopolitical factors [86][87][88] Additional Important Insights - **Central Bank Independence**: Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are growing, with potential implications for monetary policy and market stability [78][79] - **Political Landscape Shifts**: The political landscape is evolving, with potential new candidates emerging for the 2028 presidential race, indicating a shift in party dynamics [83][84][85] This summary encapsulates the key insights and discussions from J.P. Morgan's 2025 Global Macro Conference, highlighting the interplay between economic forecasts, political dynamics, and market trends.