Indonesia’s exports of tin recovered in November, in a sign that concerns are easing over supply disruptions caused by the country’s crackdown on illegal mining https://t.co/3PP5XpaZaW ...

Pakistan’s inflation quickened last month as food prices jumped, driven by supply disruptions stemming from severe floods and the closure of the Afghan border amid heightened tensions between the two neighbors https://t.co/tUdXyhc9EK ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Metals & Mining** industry, particularly the **copper** sector in North America - A **weakening dollar** and **supply disruptions** at major copper producers are leading to **elevated metal prices** [1][2] Key Company Insights Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) - SCCO is upgraded to **Equal-Weight (EW)** from **Underweight (UW)** due to supply disruptions limiting investment avenues [2][37] - Price target updated to **$132/share**, reflecting a premium multiple of **1.75x** standard deviations above the 5-year average [2][37] - Expected **2026 copper price** forecast is **$4.83/lb**, up from a year-to-date average of **$4.34/lb** [2][38] - Anticipated **dividend upside** due to controlling shareholder's cash needs for potential M&A, with a forecasted **dividend yield** of **3%** [50][52] - **EBITDA** estimates for 2026 are revised to **$8.038 billion**, up from **$6.547 billion** [54] Peñoles (PEOLES) - Peñoles is also upgraded to **Equal-Weight (EW)** as it is trading at a discount to its **Sum-of-the-Parts (SoP)** valuation [3][60] - Current stock performance is strong, with a **232% increase** year-to-date in USD [3] - Price target set at **M$770**, reflecting a **4.1x EV/EBITDA** multiple for 2026, below its 5-year average of **4.9x** [60][68] Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) - FCX maintains an **Overweight (OW)** rating with a price target of **$46** [71] - The stock is expected to benefit from **increased copper rod pricing** in North America and a positive outlook for gold as operations at Grasberg restart [71][72] Market Dynamics - **Copper supply disruptions** from major players like Ivanhoe, Codelco, and Freeport are tightening the market into **2026** [2][38] - The **copper market** is projected to face a significant deficit, with supply disruptions accounting for **4.7%** of total supply year-to-date [39][42] - The **commodities team** is bullish on copper, predicting macro and micro support leading to a **large deficit** in 2026 [5][25] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include a **deceleration in global growth** due to US tariffs, which could negatively impact commodity prices [13] - The degree of China's participation in the market recovery post-Golden Week remains uncertain [13] Financial Estimates and Valuations - Updated estimates reflect new commodity price forecasts and FX assumptions across mining coverage [4][54] - **SCCO** is trading at **24.0x P/E** for 2026, above its 5-year average of **19.9x** [55] - **Peñoles** is trading at **10.3x P/E** for 2026, below its 5-year average of **15.0x** [66] Conclusion - The conference call highlights a positive outlook for copper prices driven by supply disruptions and a weakening dollar, with specific upgrades for Southern Copper and Peñoles reflecting their current market positions and future potential.

Core Insights - Russian oil producers may face output reductions due to intensified Ukrainian drone attacks damaging critical export and port infrastructure [1] - China has announced a lower-than-expected third tranche of clean oil product export quotas for 2025, indicating continued tightening of export controls [3][4] Group 1: Chinese Oil Export Quotas - The third export quota batch for 2025 is set at 8.395 million tonnes, lower than the anticipated 9 million tonnes, reflecting Beijing's tightening of export controls [3] - Total Chinese product exports for the year are projected at 40.77 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.6% compared to 2024, despite an oversupply in the domestic market [4] - The largest private downstream firm, ZPC, has seen a reduction in its 2025 quota for clean and dirty products by 6% and 62%, respectively [4] Group 2: Shifts in Export Products - Jet fuel has overtaken gasoline as the main export product from China in both 2024 and 2025, with exports rising to 280,000 barrels per day, accounting for 38% of total exports [5] Group 3: Market Movements - ExxonMobil is implementing a new shareholder voting mechanism to align retail investors with board recommendations, aiming to counter activist campaigns [6] - Azerbaijan's SOCAR is nearing a deal to acquire Italiana Petroli, which operates two refineries in Italy [6] - Blackstone has agreed to purchase a natural gas plant in Pennsylvania for nearly $1 billion, adding 620 MW capacity [7] - Chord Energy is acquiring Williston Basin assets from ExxonMobil's XTO Energy for $550 million, adding 48,000 net acres and approximately 9,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day [8] Group 4: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices have been slightly increasing due to concerns over potential supply disruptions in Russia, with Ukrainian drone strikes affecting crude flows to Baltic ports [9] - The US Federal Reserve may provide support for oil prices, with expectations for ICE Brent to attempt to reach $69 per barrel [10]

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