Group 1 - The core logic of the oil market this week revolves around two main lines: the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its global oil demand growth forecast, providing support for sentiment, while supply expansion and continuous inventory accumulation still exert substantial pressure on oil prices [1] - The IEA has adjusted its global oil demand growth forecast for this year from 860,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, slightly higher than last year's increase of 850,000 barrels per day, reflecting a slight improvement in the global economic outlook [1] - In contrast to the improvement in demand, the supply side remains loose, with the IEA raising its global oil supply growth forecast to approximately 2.5 million barrels per day, significantly exceeding the demand increase, indicating that the global oil market is still in a "supply outpacing demand" state [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ is expected to add about 1.2 million barrels per day in supply for the year, while non-OPEC+ countries are projected to add approximately 1.3 million barrels per day, with supply expansion outside of OPEC+ remaining a significant variable for the mid-term oil market [1] - Recent inventory data reinforces the "supply exceeds demand" judgment, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting an increase of about 3 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, indicating persistent supply-side pressure [1] - On the technical side, WTI crude oil has broken out of a medium-term downward channel, with key support established in the $58.8–$59.0 range, and the price is expected to test the $62.0–$62.5 resistance zone [3]

Group 1 - Traders are weighing geopolitical tensions from Venezuela, Russia, and Iran, leading to rising oil prices, with Brent crude stabilizing around $62 per barrel and WTI crude above $58 per barrel [1] - Venezuela has begun shutting down oil wells in its oil-rich region due to U.S. sanctions, which have restricted crude exports and filled local storage tanks [1] - U.S. President Trump has stated that the U.S. attacked a facility within Venezuela, while Russian President Putin indicated he would adjust his negotiation stance following a drone attack on his residence, complicating efforts to end the Ukraine war [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ is increasing production to regain market share, which may lead to global oil supply exceeding demand, resulting in a significant drop in oil prices [4] - Vortexa Ltd. reported a 15% increase in the amount of crude oil on tankers that have been anchored for at least seven days, bringing total oil levels close to the highest since November last year [4] - U.S. government data shows a significant increase in crude oil inventories at the Cushing hub, marking the largest weekly increase since late October, alongside rising gasoline and distillate inventories nationwide [4]