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又要暴涨!科思创不可抗力后,万华化学65万吨停产
DT新材料· 2025-07-21 15:38
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of maintenance shutdowns at major TDI production facilities, particularly by Wanhua Chemical and Covestro, leading to a significant increase in TDI prices in the domestic market. Group 1: Maintenance Shutdowns - Wanhua Chemical announced a maintenance shutdown for its Hungarian subsidiary's MDI and TDI production starting July 23, 2025, lasting approximately 30 days [1] - Covestro's Dormagen plant experienced an electrical fire on July 12, disrupting the production of key raw materials, which directly affects TDI production [2][3] - Wanhua Chemical's TDI facility in Fujian began a 45-day maintenance period on June 5, 2023, while other facilities also initiated maintenance, affecting a total capacity of 710,000 tons, which is 43.3% of domestic capacity [4] Group 2: Price Increases - The domestic TDI market price reached 15,900 yuan/ton on July 21, 2023, an increase of 1,012 yuan/ton (6.79%) from the previous day, marking five consecutive days of price rises [5] - Spot prices surged to 15,000 yuan/ton on the same day, with a daily increase of 9.22% and a monthly increase of 31.2% [5] Group 3: Global TDI Market Dynamics - The shutdowns of major TDI production bases in Europe and Japan will enhance the importance of Chinese TDI in the global market [6][7] - As of now, global TDI capacity totals 3,367,000 tons, with Asia accounting for 2,427,000 tons (72.1%), and China alone holds 1,640,000 tons (48.7% of global capacity) [7] Group 4: Export Trends - China's net TDI exports reached 220,000 tons from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 97%, with major export destinations including Vietnam, Turkey, Indonesia, and India [8] Group 5: Market Reactions - The secondary market has reacted positively, with stocks of companies like Cangzhou Dahua and Wanhua Chemical experiencing significant gains [9] - The unexpected production cuts have provided a temporary relief to TDI prices, which had been declining for two and a half years [10] Group 6: Future Considerations - The sustainability of the price increase will depend on downstream demand, as TDI is primarily used in soft foam, coatings, and adhesives, with soft foam accounting for approximately 73% of consumption [11]