While the higher levies have been the subject du jour for months, they are only just filtering through to the checkout. And more hikes will come in the final three months of the year, when holiday shopping gets under way.The Golden Quarter, so called because it is crucial to companies’ fortunes, is always a stand-off between retailers trying to sell as much full price merchandise as possible, and shoppers seeking deals. With stores needing to pass on the higher import costs, the confrontation will be tense ...

Mexico’s planned tariff hikes on products from China will halt Chinese investments in the country, warned the Mexico-China Chamber of Commerce https://t.co/tehpVeNR3z ...

This story was originally published on Construction Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Construction Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: Construction input prices increased 0.2% in August due to jumps in iron and steel costs, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index data. The uptick means prices are now 2.3% higher for overall inputs and 2.6% higher for nonresidential construction compared to a year a ...

Federal Reserve Policy and Economic Outlook - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates as early as September despite persistent inflation and weakening growth indicators [1][3] - Fed Chair Powell has indicated concerns about a fragile labor market, suggesting a potential rise in unemployment [3][6] - The Fed's policy adjustments will be data-dependent, particularly influenced by labor market and inflation statistics [5][6] Market Conditions and Valuations - U.S. equities are near record highs, with significant valuation concentration in a few large-cap tech stocks, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," which account for approximately 35% of the S&P 500 market capitalization [1][11] - Current market concentration risk is about six times greater than that observed before the dotcom bubble burst in March 2000 [11] - There are concerns that the U.S. equity market is overvalued, driven by excessive bets on AI technology [10][12] Economic Risks and Consumer Demand - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with consumer demand growth at about half the rate of previous years [7][8] - Factors contributing to potential economic downturn include tariff hikes and a possible bubble in AI infrastructure spending [8][12] - A correction in the stock market is anticipated within the next six months due to sluggish consumer demand and overextended AI valuations [14] Political Influences on the Federal Reserve - Political pressures on the Federal Reserve, including recent actions by President Trump, pose a threat to its independence [17][19] - The potential removal of Fed governor Lisa Cook raises questions about the limits of presidential authority over the central bank [17][18] - The Supreme Court has previously underscored the Federal Reserve's independence from political influence, but ongoing challenges may arise [19]

Core Viewpoint - Williams-Sonoma is adapting to the impacts of tariff hikes by exploring flexible sourcing options and increasing domestic manufacturing capabilities, despite facing challenges in gross margins and a slight decline in share price [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported quarterly results that exceeded earnings and revenue expectations, although it missed analysts' gross margin estimates, leading to a 4.48% drop in share price [1]. - Management maintained guidance for the year, indicating resilience in absorbing incremental costs from tariffs [2]. Group 2: Manufacturing Strategy - Williams-Sonoma is focusing on increasing domestic manufacturing, with a significant portion of its upholstery being produced and assembled in the U.S. [2]. - The home improvement brand Rejuvenation is highlighted as a key part of the strategy to enhance domestic production, being the fastest-growing small brand within the company [2]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The company has demonstrated significant progress over the years, with a more than doubling of its operating margin from 2019 to the present, while guiding for flat operating margins this year despite tariff impacts [3][4]. - The strength of the company's operating model, multichannel platform, and sourcing structure is emphasized as a source of flexibility and effective vendor communication [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US has raised "reciprocal tariffs" on China to 125%, with China retaliating with similar tariff hikes, leading to significant trade tensions [2][3] - Approximately 60% of US imports from China are now subject to tariff hikes of 145%, which includes both the new reciprocal tariffs and previously implemented fentanyl tariffs [3][4] - The report anticipates a substantial decline in China's exports to the US, projecting a decrease of two-thirds in the coming quarters and an overall export decline of 10% in USD terms for 2025 [8][11] - A broad fiscal expansion of 1.5-2 percentage points of GDP is expected from China to support the economy amid these challenges [9][13] - The GDP growth forecast for China has been downgraded to 3.4% for 2025 and 3% for 2026, reflecting the adverse effects of tariff shocks [11][17] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The US has implemented significant tariff hikes on various goods, with the latest exemptions for electronics adding an estimated $64 billion of US imports from China to the exempted list [3][4] - The report suggests that ongoing tariff negotiations may not lead to immediate reductions in the current tariff levels [7] Economic Forecast - The report estimates that the tariff hikes will drag down China's GDP growth by more than 2 percentage points, with a notable impact on domestic investment and consumption [8][11] - The expected inflation in China is projected to be negative in both 2025 and 2026 due to reduced external demand and domestic price pressures [11] Currency Outlook - The report does not foresee significant movements in the USDCNY exchange rate, predicting it to trade around 7.5 by the end of 2025 [12][17]