For more on the potential government shutdown, let's bring in Morgan Stanley, global head of fixed income research and public policy strategy, Michael Zesus. It's great to have you on a day like today. >> Thanks for having me.>> So, what are you telling your clients because we don't see usually a big market impact from this. >> Yeah, I I mean, I think it's it's pretty clear that the base case and the central case should be a shutdown. The vice president told you as much yesterday.The prediction markets have ...

Shares of CarMax getting wrecked after reporting earnings in revenue that miss analyst estimates. The used vehicle retailer stock down almost 20% hitting levels not seen since March 2020. For more, let's bring in CNBC's Phil Labau. Phil, what happened? What' they say about this? >> Melissa, there was nothing good in this report. Really, when you look at the quarter, almost every key metric was poor. And even on the conference call, the CEO said month by month, the quarter got worse. Now, they believe they'r ...

Group 1: General Motors - UBS upgraded General Motors from neutral to buy, raising the price target from $56 to $81, citing the company's ability to manage tariff costs effectively [1] - Analysts expect North American margins for General Motors to be between 8% to 10%, which is significantly higher than the street's expectation of 6% to 6.5% [5] - The potential for lower interest rates is anticipated to drive higher vehicle sales for General Motors [5] Group 2: Tesla - Tesla shares increased nearly 4%, marking the highest close since December, with analysts predicting a strong Q3 due to expected delivery numbers exceeding expectations [2] - The impending deadline for tax credits is expected to boost demand for Tesla vehicles in Q3 [2] - Analysts believe Tesla has favorable conditions heading into year-end, despite some anticipated challenges [3] Group 3: Automotive Market Conditions - Rising interest rates have made vehicles less affordable, impacting consumer purchasing behavior [4] - The overall price of cars is a concern, with significant increases noted compared to three years ago, influenced by tariffs and interest rates [4][6] - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift with regulatory changes that may provide short-term benefits but could pose long-term challenges [6]

Core Viewpoint - The trade war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump is driving U.S. clothing and footwear acquisitions to unprecedented levels this year, as companies seek mergers to mitigate tariff costs [1] Group 1: Industry Impact - The ongoing trade war is influencing strategic decisions within the clothing and footwear industry, prompting companies to pursue mergers and acquisitions [1] - Companies are merging to offset the financial burden imposed by tariffs, indicating a shift in industry dynamics [1] Group 2: Acquisition Trends - The current year is witnessing all-time high levels of acquisitions in the U.S. clothing and footwear sectors, reflecting a significant trend in the market [1]

Economic Sentiment - Consumers in the southeast US are growing more stressed [1] - Tariff costs are having a real impact [1]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the S&P 500 valuation and return forecasts, expecting a rise of 10% to 6900 over the next 12 months, with a forward P/E multiple of 22x [3][4]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 forward P/E of 22x ranks in the 97th percentile since 1980, but is deemed appropriate given the current macroeconomic conditions, including declining interest rates and elevated corporate profitability [3][11][12]. - Earnings growth is projected at 7% for both 2025 and 2026, with EPS estimates of $262 and $280 respectively, although there are two-way risks around these forecasts [6][24]. - The report highlights narrow market breadth, with the median S&P 500 constituent 11% below its high, indicating potential for a momentum reversal in the equity market [30][34]. - Sector allocation recommendations include a mix of secular growth (Software & Services, Media & Entertainment), cyclical (Materials), and defensive (Utilities, Real Estate) industries, with a focus on AI-related technology stocks [41][44]. Summary by Sections Valuation and Earnings Forecasts - The S&P 500 is expected to reach 6900 in 12 months, with return forecasts of +2%, +5%, and +10% over 3, 6, and 12 months respectively [4][47]. - The forward P/E multiple has been increased to 22x, with EPS growth of 7% anticipated for 2025 and 2026 [6][49]. Market Conditions - Current macroeconomic conditions support the elevated P/E multiple, with expectations of earlier Fed easing and lower bond yields [12][16]. - The report notes that investor positioning is neutral, suggesting that current market multiples do not reflect investor exuberance [17][20]. Sector Preferences - There is no clear consensus on sector preferences among clients, but AI-related technology stocks are generally favored despite valuation concerns [41][44]. - The recommendation to invest in Alternative Asset Managers within the Financials sector has been positively received [41]. Market Breadth and Momentum - The S&P 500's recent record high contrasts with the median constituent being significantly below its peak, indicating narrow market breadth [30][34]. - A potential momentum rotation is anticipated, although it is expected to be short-lived rather than indicative of a new long-term trend [40].