Core Viewpoint - The current tariff program under the Trump administration creates uncertainty for investors, particularly as inflation rises and a potential recession looms, impacting companies reliant on consumer spending [1]. Retail Industry Overview - The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has partially recovered from the initial tariff shock but remains down over 1% year-to-date [2]. - Some retailers are struggling, while others may thrive due to unique business models [3]. Company-Specific Insights TJX Companies - TJX Companies, known for discount retailers like T.J. Maxx, has a 12-month stock price forecast of $141.06, indicating a 15.45% upside potential [4]. - The company has outperformed the XRT slightly and maintains brick-and-mortar strength through a unique model focusing on discounted finds [4][5]. - TJX reported over 5% year-over-year revenue growth and offers a dividend yield of 1.41%, with management recently increasing the dividend payout [5]. - Analysts are bullish on TJX, with 19 out of 20 rating it as a Buy, predicting a stock rise of over 17% [6]. Global-e Online - Global-e Online has a 12-month stock price forecast of $48.08, suggesting a 43.73% upside potential [7]. - The company facilitates international retail transactions for high-end brands and has seen a quarterly revenue growth of 30% year-over-year [9]. - Analysts are optimistic, with 12 out of 13 rating Global-e shares as a Buy, indicating a consensus price target of $48 per share [10]. Boot Barn - Boot Barn has a 12-month stock price forecast of $173.67, indicating a 1.68% upside potential [11]. - The company reported a 5% year-over-year same-store sales growth and plans to increase its store count by 14% [11]. - Despite tariff uncertainties, Boot Barn projects a 13% growth in total net sales and has seen its stock rise nearly 9% year-to-date [12]. - Analysts remain positive, with a consensus price target close to $174, suggesting over 5% upside potential [13].

Core Insights - Lululemon exceeded Wall Street expectations for fiscal first-quarter earnings but lowered its full-year earnings guidance due to a challenging macroeconomic environment [1][2] - The company's shares fell approximately 20% in after-hours trading following the announcement [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal first quarter, Lululemon reported a net income of $314 million, or $2.60 per share, compared to $321 million, or $2.54 per share, in the same quarter last year [5] - First-quarter revenue increased to $2.37 billion, up from about $2.21 billion during the same period in 2024 [5] - Comparable sales rose 1% year over year, which was below the anticipated 3% [9] Earnings Guidance - The company revised its full-year earnings per share guidance to a range of $14.58 to $14.78, down from the previous range of $14.95 to $15.15 [2] - For the second quarter, Lululemon expects earnings per share between $2.85 and $2.90, compared to Wall Street's expectation of $3.29 [7] Revenue Expectations - Lululemon anticipates second-quarter revenue to be between $2.54 billion and $2.56 billion, while full-year revenue is expected to remain unchanged at $11.15 billion to $11.3 billion [6] Market Context - The company is facing challenges from tariffs and a slowing U.S. economy, similar to other retailers who have also reduced their guidance [3][4] - Competitors in the athleticwear sector, such as Gap and Nike, are also adjusting their strategies in response to tariff impacts [4] Manufacturing and Supply Chain - In 2024, 40% of Lululemon's products were manufactured in Vietnam, with significant portions also produced in Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Bangladesh [8] - The company relies on suppliers for manufacturing and does not own any production facilities [8] Margins and Stock Performance - Gross margin for the quarter was 58.3%, exceeding the expected 57.7% [9] - As of the latest close, Lululemon's stock has declined about 13% year-to-date [9]