I know no one wants to hear bullish ideas and everyone is scared and wants to fling poo at each other... but the Road to Valhalla is getting very close.If global liquidity is the single most dominant macro factor then we MUST focus on that.REMEMBER - THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IS ROLLING $10TRN IN DEBT. EVERYTHING ELSE IS A SIDESHOW. THIS IS THE GAME OF THE NEXT 12 MONTHS.Currently the gov shutdown has forced a sharp tightening of liquidity as the TGA builds up with no where to spend it.This is not offset by the ...

Malaysia and the US seek to conclude their tariff negotiations in October, when President Donald Trump visits Kuala Lumpur for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit https://t.co/DLTbbnaR0m ...

Market Trends & Investment Sentiment - Investors perceive China's actions regarding analog semi companies as posturing in trade talks, not expecting significant long-term earnings impact [2] - Markets are at a record high, focusing on the Federal Reserve [1] - Investor sentiment has improved, reflecting confidence in the economy, leading to increased asset manager activity [10] - Investors are showing willingness to invest in more speculative growth companies, even those without current earnings or free cash flow [12] IPO Market - The IPO market has had a tremendous year, contrasting with the last three years [9] - IPO volume through mid-September surpasses the full years of 2022, 2023, and 2024, indicating pent-up demand [10] - IPO activity is not limited to tech, extending across consumer and energy sectors [13] US-China Relations & Tech - Technology remains a key area for tariff negotiations between the U S and China, expected to cause continued volatility [15] - The U S and China are working towards a framework for a TikTok deal, with technology at the heart of negotiations [14] Corporate Reporting - The President suggested American companies should report earnings every six months, pending authorization by the FCC [3] - Reduced reporting frequency could decrease volatility but also reduce visibility for investors and potentially increase information disparity [4][5]

By Makiko Yamazaki and Leika Kihara TOKYO (Reuters) - The United States and Japan reaffirmed their commitment to "market determined" exchange rates, while agreeing that foreign exchange interventions should be reserved for combating excess volatility, according to a joint statement released on Friday. The latest agreement also notably made no new demands by the Trump administration on Tokyo around foreign exchange or other matters, a point analysts say will give Japan some relief as it navigates tricky b ...

Switzerland’s trade group for gold refiners opposes a relocation of some operations to the US to ease a trade imbalance between the countries and help tariff negotiations, newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung reported https://t.co/8iVMzk76U6 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the implications of the US-UK trade deal and its potential impact on global trade dynamics, including future agreements with countries like India, Japan, Korea, and Vietnam, as well as China and the EU [1][2][17]. Core Insights and Arguments - The US-UK trade deal is viewed as the first in a series of agreements, but it is noted that tariffs are expected to remain high, with a minimum tariff rate of 10% likely for future deals [1][4][19]. - The UK trade deal is characterized as limited in scope, primarily benefiting the UK by eliminating sectoral tariffs on steel and aluminum and reducing car tariffs from 25% to 10% for a quota of 100,000 cars [18][19]. - The deal does not significantly alter the trade relationship between the US and UK, as the UK accounts for only 2% of US imports, and the US runs a small trade surplus with the UK [18][19]. - The provisional nature of the deal raises concerns about the UK's bargaining position in future negotiations, particularly with the EU, which is a more significant trading partner [21][22]. - The agreement may undermine the WTO's most favored nation principle, as it sets a precedent for bilateral trade deals that could complicate multilateral trade frameworks [23]. Additional Important Content - The US is expected to pursue additional trade agreements with countries such as India, Japan, Korea, and Vietnam, but negotiations are anticipated to be complex and time-consuming [29][32]. - The US administration's approach to tariffs is characterized by a willingness to maintain high tariffs, with President Trump indicating that many countries will face much higher tariffs than the 10% established in the UK deal [33]. - Upcoming negotiations with China are highlighted, with expectations for substantive discussions, although significant concessions from China are not anticipated initially [34][36]. - The European Commission is preparing a retaliatory package against US goods worth approximately $100 billion, targeting key industrial sectors, should trade talks fail [44]. Market and Economic Outlook - Central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, are signaling caution in their monetary policies, with expectations for potential rate cuts being adjusted based on economic data [46][52]. - The PBoC in China has announced monetary easing measures, including cuts to interest rates and reserve requirements, in response to economic pressures from trade tensions [61][62]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications of the US-UK trade deal and its broader impact on global trade relations and economic policies.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record first quarter revenue of $7.6 billion, a 2% increase year-over-year [6][7] - Earnings before taxes were $337 million, with net income of $244 million, resulting in earnings per share of $3.66, a 14% increase [7] - Adjusted earnings before taxes increased 5% to $310 million, and adjusted net income also rose 5% to $226 million, with adjusted earnings per share up 6% to $3.39 [7][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same store retail automotive revenue increased by 2%, with related gross profit up 3% [6][7] - Same store retail automotive service and parts revenue rose 4%, with gross profit increasing by 6% [7] - New automotive units delivered increased by 68% on a same store basis, while used automotive units declined by 16.1% [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 59% of revenue was generated in North America, 30% in the UK, and 9% in other international markets [8] - In the UK, new vehicle market registrations increased by 6%, with same store new units delivered up by 9% [22][23] - In Australia, the company gained 150 basis points of market share in the on-highway market [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes diversification as a key differentiator, with a premium brand mix and investments in various markets [8] - The focus on inventory management and cost control is expected to sustain profitability [40][41] - The company is committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and capital allocation strategy, including share repurchases and dividends [28][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that the automotive and commercial truck markets remain fluid, with ongoing tariff negotiations impacting pricing strategies [7][8] - The company is optimistic about its diversified model's ability to adapt to changing market conditions [34] - Management highlighted the importance of technician recruitment and training to support service operations [44][90] Other Important Information - The company generated $283 million in cash flow from operations during Q1, with EBITDA of $400 million [29] - The company repurchased 255,000 shares for $40 million during the quarter, with plans for continued opportunistic buybacks [29][30] - The dividend was increased by 54% since the end of 2023, with a current yield of approximately 3.1% [30][31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on the UK market and Sytner Select - Management reported a 9% increase in same store new units delivered in the UK, with improved inventory management contributing to better gross profit [39][40] Question: Impact of warranty work on customer pay in parts and service - Management acknowledged that warranty work has increased, impacting customer pay growth, but noted improvements in gross profit per technician [42][44] Question: Price elasticity of demand amid tariff discussions - Management indicated that while there may be some impact on pricing, the premium luxury segment remains resilient, with leasing options helping mitigate costs [49][50] Question: Sustainability of SG&A costs - Management expressed confidence in maintaining flat SG&A costs as a percentage of gross profit, attributing this to effective cost control measures [63][66] Question: Opportunities in the used vehicle market - Management emphasized a focus on younger used vehicles (zero to four years old) to maintain profitability and avoid brand damage [84][88] Question: Parts inflation and customer willingness to pay - Management noted that parts inflation could be influenced by tariffs, but customer willingness to pay remains strong [93][94]