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UBS predicts tariff tensions won't derail market, delivers upbeat earnings season forecast
CNBC Television· 2025-07-14 22:01
Tariff Impact & Economic Outlook - UBS认为,即使总统实施所有关税,有效关税率也仅增加2% [3] - 市场已消化关税噪音,因税收减免和预期降息提供支持 [4][8] - 市场意识到已实施的关税将在下半年对经济产生影响,通货膨胀将上升,企业利润将受到一定程度的打击 [7] Tax Cuts & Corporate Performance - 美国公司享受永久性的企业税削减,税率从35%降至21% [9] - 税收减免、资本支出条款、奖金折旧和研发支出将支持企业降低有效税率,即使他们面临关税的不利因素 [11] Dollar Dynamics & Global Investment - 全球投资者可能对美国资产配置过多,导致美元下跌 [12] - 美元走弱有利于美国公司,因为当他们转换较弱的美元时,他们的外国收入看起来更好 [13] Fed Policy & Market Drivers - 市场上涨并非完全依赖美联储降息,更倾向于经济保持良好状态 [14] - 人工智能资本支出周期将推动市场向前发展 [16] Small Cap Opportunities - 小型公司估值偏低,但需要通胀降低、美联储降息以及关税问题不大等条件才能真正上涨 [17][18] - 目前的环境(通胀高企,增长放缓)对小型公司不利 [19]
SSR Mining Hits 52-Week High: Should You Buy, Hold or Sell?
ZACKS· 2025-07-08 17:21
Core Insights - SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM) stock reached a 52-week high of $13.48, closing at $13.45, driven by the restart of Seabee mine operations and high gold and silver prices [1][5] - Year-to-date, SSRM shares have increased by 45.1%, outperforming the industry growth of 21% and the Zacks Basic Materials sector and S&P 500 gains of 22.7% and 25%, respectively [1][5] Performance Comparison - SSR Mining has outperformed peers such as Pan American Silver (PAAS), Hecla Mining (HL), and IAMGOLD (IAG), which have year-to-date gains of 35.2%, 30.8%, and 29.1%, respectively [2] Growth Drivers - The current silver price is approximately $36.80 per ounce, near a 13-year high, influenced by U.S. trade policy changes and geopolitical uncertainties, with both silver and gold prices up 27% year-to-date [9] - The silver market is projected to face a deficit of 117.6 million ounces in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of deficit, which is favorable for silver prices [10] - Gold prices are expected to rise due to increased central bank purchases and ongoing geopolitical tensions [12] Operational Updates - Seabee mine operations resumed on June 13, 2025, after a two-week suspension due to power outages, with no reported damage [12] - In Q1 2025, Seabee produced 26,001 ounces of gold, a 9.4% year-over-year increase, with expectations of 70,000-80,000 ounces for the full year [13] - The cost of sales for Seabee is projected at $1,230-$1,270 per payable ounce, with an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1,710-$1,750 per payable ounce for 2025 [13] Strategic Acquisitions - SSR Mining acquired the Cripple Creek & Victor (CC&V) mine on March 3, 2025, enhancing its U.S. presence and adding approximately 170,000 ounces to annual gold output [14][15] - The acquisition is expected to positively impact key per-share metrics, including NAV, gold production, mineral reserves, and free cash flow [15] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SSR Mining's earnings for 2025 and 2026 has increased by 52.4% and 16%, respectively, over the past 60 days [16] - The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings is $1.25 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 346%, while the estimate for 2026 is $2.02 per share, reflecting a 62% increase [18] Valuation Metrics - SSR Mining is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 8.16X, which is below the industry average of 14.44X and cheaper than IAMGOLD at 8.31X [19][20] Long-Term Growth Outlook - SSR Mining has a diversified portfolio with expected gold production at Marigold to exceed 270,000 ounces annually by 2027, with an 18% CAGR from 2024 [21] - Seabee's production is anticipated to average 75,000 ounces annually from 2024 to 2028, with ongoing exploration and resource development to extend mine life [22] Investment Consideration - The strategic acquisition of the CC&V Mine, combined with strong asset performance and rising gold and silver prices, positions SSR Mining favorably for growth, supported by an attractive valuation and upward earnings estimate revisions [25]