Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. has deployed a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East amid ongoing negotiations with Iran, signaling a willingness for military action if a favorable deal is not reached [2][3] - Treasury Secretary Besson indicated that the U.S. dollar has been used to influence protests in Iran, which reflects the geopolitical dynamics affecting the currency [4] Market Analysis - The S&P 500 and Dow have both seen nine consecutive months of gains on a total return basis, indicating a strong bull market despite recent market fluctuations [8] - Oil prices have shown a sustainable rise, contrasting with previous periods of stability in Iran, suggesting increased market volatility [5][6] Investment Sentiment - Current market sentiment has shifted from greed to fear, with a notable increase in short interest in technology ETFs, indicating a cautious outlook among investors [10][11] - Valuations in the software sector are at their lowest since 2013, presenting potential investment opportunities despite the prevailing market pessimism [13] Trade and Tariff Implications - The overall tariff level in the U.S. stands at 14.2%, with expectations that it may decrease to closer to 10% by year-end, which could provide fiscal stimulus [16][17] - Anticipation of a significant bank deal with China may include a currency component, potentially exerting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar [17][18]