Not everyone though is a fan of the president's pick. 314 Research co-founder Warren Pi is writing on X that Kevin Warsh was the worst pick of the four candidates and will not garner trust from the market. Warren joins us this morning to talk more about that.Warren, appreciate the time as always. Good to see you. >> Good to see you.>> Uh you're not alone either. I think Ren Mack has been fairly critical. What do you think is the problem with this pick.Yeah, I I as I laid out there, I think that he is workin ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its independence, particularly in light of recent investigations into Fed Chair Powell's testimony regarding renovations to Federal Reserve buildings. The implications for financial markets, particularly gold and UST yields, are also analyzed. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fed Independence and Market Implications** - The recent federal investigation has brought Fed independence back into focus. While a complete loss of independence is not anticipated, there is a belief that rate hikes may be capped in the future, especially if inflation remains persistent and economic growth rebounds. This scenario could lead to loose financial conditions, which would support gold prices and elevate long-term UST yields [2][11]. 2. **Gold and UST Yield Correlation** - Currently, the 6-month implied correlation between gold and UST yields is negative. However, in scenarios of sticky inflation and high term premiums, this correlation could become less negative or even positive. This suggests that gold could still perform well even if bond yields rise due to inflation concerns [3][16][17]. 3. **Investment Recommendations** - Two new trades are proposed: - Buy a 3-month USD-denominated dual digital gold option with a strike above 109% at a premium of $100,000, referencing gold cash at $4,622 and USD 30-year SOFR at 4.151% [4][9]. - Buy a similar option with a strike above 110% at a premium of $50,000, with the same references [5][10]. - Risks associated with these trades include a faster slowdown in the labor market, which could impact the overall economic outlook [4][5]. 4. **Market Dynamics and Future Outlook** - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by loose financial conditions, which are expected to keep inflation above target levels. This could lead to higher gold prices, with Citi Commodities Research recently upgrading their 0-3 month gold price target to $5,000 per ounce [11]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context of Gold and UST Yield Correlation** - The report notes that prior to 1996, the correlation between gold prices and UST yields was slightly positive, contrasting with the negative correlation observed in the last two decades. This historical perspective highlights the changing dynamics in the relationship between these assets [17]. 2. **Analyst Certification and Disclosures** - The report includes a disclaimer regarding potential conflicts of interest, emphasizing that investors should consider this report as one of many factors in their investment decisions [7]. 3. **Contact Information for Analysts** - The document provides contact details for various analysts within Citi Global Macro Strategy, indicating the availability of further insights and analysis [6]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications of Fed independence, market dynamics, and investment strategies related to gold and UST yields.

Core Insights - The bond market has stabilized, with 10-year yields hovering between 4.1% and 4.2%, contributing to support in the equity market [2] - Economic data, particularly GDP, will be a focal point for market participants, with expectations of consumer strength influencing future economic outlook [3][4] - Long-term yields are expected to remain rangebound until 2026, with potential for shifts based on economic data [4][5] Fixed Income Market - The lack of volatility in the bond market has been beneficial for equities, and expectations suggest that yields will remain elevated and rangebound [8][10] - The market anticipates one to two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve into 2026, but inflation is expected to remain relatively stable [11][12] - The term premium has increased due to uncertainties in fiscal policy and Federal Reserve actions, indicating potential for higher long-term yields [13][14] International Equity Market - International stocks are projected to see earnings growth of 11.5% next year, up from flat earnings this year in the Eurozone, with attractive valuations compared to the S&P 500 [7] - The broadening of the equity market rally may benefit international stocks, particularly as investors seek growth beyond technology sectors [6] - Japan is showing stronger performance compared to the EU, with increased defense spending and positive economic indicators [15][16] European Market Outlook - Germany's fiscal stimulus program is expected to ramp up next year, which could enhance growth and earnings in the Eurozone [16][17] - Recent optimism from the European Central Bank regarding GDP forecasts is supported by government spending, exports, and corporate investments, including in AI [17][18] - Increased lending in the Eurozone is anticipated to boost growth and earnings, contributing positively to the market outlook [18]

Economic Sentiment - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey reported a score of 49, indicating a decline in consumer confidence, particularly regarding the government shutdown, inflation, and job security [2][4] - There is a noted discrepancy between soft data, like consumer sentiment, and hard data, suggesting a continuing pattern of economic uncertainty [3][5] Treasury Yields - Treasury yields are expected to remain rangebound due to a lack of hard data, with the government shutdown preventing the release of key employment reports [5][6] - Global yields remain elevated, which is likely to influence capital flows and keep U.S. yields high [7] - The term premium, reflecting investor compensation for market uncertainty, is also expected to remain elevated, contributing to sustained higher long-term yields [8][9] Municipal Bonds - Recent months have shown positive returns in the municipal bond market, although they still lag behind corporate and treasury markets [10][11] - Municipal bonds are considered an attractive investment option for higher tax bracket investors, especially given their relative valuations compared to corporate bonds [11][12] - The yield on municipal bonds is appealing, with a tax rate of about 24% needed for corporate bond yields after taxes to match municipal yields, which is historically low [12][13]

Group 1 - Optimism regarding a potential US-China trade deal is leading investors to sell Treasuries, resulting in decreased demand for safe-haven assets [1][3] - Yields on 10-year US government bonds increased by four basis points to 4.04%, the highest level in over a week, following agreements on tariffs and export controls between the US and China [2] - The selloff in Treasuries is occurring at a critical time as markets anticipate central bank policy decisions and the outcome of a meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping [3] Group 2 - Investor sentiment will be further assessed through upcoming two- and five-year Treasury sales [4] - Concerns over inflation risks are growing as tariffs begin to impact the economy, despite soft CPI data and worries in sectors like housing and private credit [4] - A proxy for term premium on US 10-year debt rose by one basis point to 66 basis points, indicating a slight increase in perceived future risk [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to steepen in the coming months due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, which will lower short-term yields while longer-dated yields remain elevated [1][2]. Treasury Yield Trends - Recent data indicates a decline in Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year yield reaching a five-month low, influenced by a weaker labor market and a significant downward revision of job creation estimates [2][4]. - The current 10-year yield is at 4.08%, projected to rise to 4.20% in three months and 4.25% in a year, which is lower than previous forecasts [4]. Rate Cut Expectations - Interest rate futures are now pricing in three 25 basis point cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, an increase from earlier expectations of two cuts [3]. - Analysts predict that the 2-year Treasury yield, currently at 3.55%, will remain stable for six months before declining to 3.40% in a year, leading to a widening spread between 2- and 10-year yields [6]. Market Sentiment - A majority of analysts (85%) anticipate that the U.S. yield curve will steepen by year-end, reflecting a consensus on the direction of interest rates [6]. - The steepening of the yield curve is attributed to a rising term premium, driven by fiscal deficits, tariff uncertainties, and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence [7].

The term premium on Britain’s gilts has risen sharply over the past years and is now notably higher than in America, the euro area or Japan https://t.co/uf0U5er1aN ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral stance on duration while finding value at the front end of the yield curve [3][11][17] Core Insights - The report projects the first Federal Reserve cut in December 2025, with expectations for 2-year Treasury yields to reach 3.50% and 10-year yields to reach 4.35% by year-end 2025 [11][14] - The oil market is factoring in a 21% chance of a significant disruption in Gulf energy production, with crude prices potentially reaching $120-130 [8][45] - The report emphasizes a shift in focus from monetary policy to fiscal policy, particularly regarding the German budget and NATO agreements on defense spending [8][49] US Rates - Value is found at the front end, with expectations for higher yields to add duration as money markets are pricing in earlier and more aggressive Fed easing than the report's forecast [3][11] - The report anticipates an increase in Treasury coupon auction sizes starting in February 2026, although there may be a forgoing of increases to longer-end auction sizes [3][30] International Rates - Developed market yields remained stable despite geopolitical tensions, with central bank meetings occurring amid subdued market activity [4][48] Commodities - The report highlights a major oil supply disruption risk at 21%, with a bullish outlook on corn and cotton prices despite muted price responses [8][45] Currencies - The report maintains a bearish stance on the USD, driven by US growth moderation and global fiscal policies that support growth outside the US [70][72] Emerging Markets - The report recommends an overweight position in emerging market currencies while underweighting emerging market sovereign credit, with a market weight stance on local rates and corporates [8][45]