Economic Sentiment - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey reported a score of 49, indicating a decline in consumer confidence, particularly regarding the government shutdown, inflation, and job security [2][4] - There is a noted discrepancy between soft data, like consumer sentiment, and hard data, suggesting a continuing pattern of economic uncertainty [3][5] Treasury Yields - Treasury yields are expected to remain rangebound due to a lack of hard data, with the government shutdown preventing the release of key employment reports [5][6] - Global yields remain elevated, which is likely to influence capital flows and keep U.S. yields high [7] - The term premium, reflecting investor compensation for market uncertainty, is also expected to remain elevated, contributing to sustained higher long-term yields [8][9] Municipal Bonds - Recent months have shown positive returns in the municipal bond market, although they still lag behind corporate and treasury markets [10][11] - Municipal bonds are considered an attractive investment option for higher tax bracket investors, especially given their relative valuations compared to corporate bonds [11][12] - The yield on municipal bonds is appealing, with a tax rate of about 24% needed for corporate bond yields after taxes to match municipal yields, which is historically low [12][13]

Group 1 - Optimism regarding a potential US-China trade deal is leading investors to sell Treasuries, resulting in decreased demand for safe-haven assets [1][3] - Yields on 10-year US government bonds increased by four basis points to 4.04%, the highest level in over a week, following agreements on tariffs and export controls between the US and China [2] - The selloff in Treasuries is occurring at a critical time as markets anticipate central bank policy decisions and the outcome of a meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping [3] Group 2 - Investor sentiment will be further assessed through upcoming two- and five-year Treasury sales [4] - Concerns over inflation risks are growing as tariffs begin to impact the economy, despite soft CPI data and worries in sectors like housing and private credit [4] - A proxy for term premium on US 10-year debt rose by one basis point to 66 basis points, indicating a slight increase in perceived future risk [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to steepen in the coming months due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, which will lower short-term yields while longer-dated yields remain elevated [1][2]. Treasury Yield Trends - Recent data indicates a decline in Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year yield reaching a five-month low, influenced by a weaker labor market and a significant downward revision of job creation estimates [2][4]. - The current 10-year yield is at 4.08%, projected to rise to 4.20% in three months and 4.25% in a year, which is lower than previous forecasts [4]. Rate Cut Expectations - Interest rate futures are now pricing in three 25 basis point cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, an increase from earlier expectations of two cuts [3]. - Analysts predict that the 2-year Treasury yield, currently at 3.55%, will remain stable for six months before declining to 3.40% in a year, leading to a widening spread between 2- and 10-year yields [6]. Market Sentiment - A majority of analysts (85%) anticipate that the U.S. yield curve will steepen by year-end, reflecting a consensus on the direction of interest rates [6]. - The steepening of the yield curve is attributed to a rising term premium, driven by fiscal deficits, tariff uncertainties, and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence [7].

The term premium on Britain’s gilts has risen sharply over the past years and is now notably higher than in America, the euro area or Japan https://t.co/uf0U5er1aN ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral stance on duration while finding value at the front end of the yield curve [3][11][17] Core Insights - The report projects the first Federal Reserve cut in December 2025, with expectations for 2-year Treasury yields to reach 3.50% and 10-year yields to reach 4.35% by year-end 2025 [11][14] - The oil market is factoring in a 21% chance of a significant disruption in Gulf energy production, with crude prices potentially reaching $120-130 [8][45] - The report emphasizes a shift in focus from monetary policy to fiscal policy, particularly regarding the German budget and NATO agreements on defense spending [8][49] US Rates - Value is found at the front end, with expectations for higher yields to add duration as money markets are pricing in earlier and more aggressive Fed easing than the report's forecast [3][11] - The report anticipates an increase in Treasury coupon auction sizes starting in February 2026, although there may be a forgoing of increases to longer-end auction sizes [3][30] International Rates - Developed market yields remained stable despite geopolitical tensions, with central bank meetings occurring amid subdued market activity [4][48] Commodities - The report highlights a major oil supply disruption risk at 21%, with a bullish outlook on corn and cotton prices despite muted price responses [8][45] Currencies - The report maintains a bearish stance on the USD, driven by US growth moderation and global fiscal policies that support growth outside the US [70][72] Emerging Markets - The report recommends an overweight position in emerging market currencies while underweighting emerging market sovereign credit, with a market weight stance on local rates and corporates [8][45]