Core Insights - Newmont Corporation's shares have surged 79% in the past six months, driven by rising gold prices and strong earnings performance, supported by operational efficiency and a robust Tier 1 portfolio [1][7]. Stock Performance - NEM stock has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's growth of 54.8% and the S&P 500's increase of 16% [2]. - Among peers, Barrick Mining Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, and Kinross Gold Corporation have seen stock increases of 104.4%, 42%, and 81.7%, respectively, over the same period [2]. Technical Indicators - Technical indicators show bullish momentum for NEM, with the stock trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since April 9, 2025, indicating a long-term uptrend [5]. - A golden crossover occurred on April 16, 2025, with the 50-day SMA surpassing the 200-day SMA, further indicating a bullish trend [5]. Growth Projects and Portfolio Actions - Newmont is investing in growth projects, including the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana and the Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia, aimed at increasing production capacity and extending mine life [10]. - The Ahafo North project is expected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually over an estimated mine life of 13 years, with an initial production of 50,000 ounces expected this year [11]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has created a leading portfolio with a multi-decade production profile in favorable mining jurisdictions, achieving $500 million in annual run-rate synergies post-acquisition [12]. Strategic Focus and Divestitures - Newmont has divested non-core businesses to focus on Tier 1 assets, completing its non-core divestiture program in April 2025, which included the sale of operations in Ghana and Canada [13]. - The company anticipates generating $3 billion in after-tax cash proceeds from its 2025 divestiture program, supporting its capital allocation strategy [14]. Financial Health - Newmont has a strong liquidity position of $9.6 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of approximately $5.6 billion, and its free cash flow has more than doubled year-over-year to $1.6 billion [15]. - Over the past two years, Newmont has returned more than $5.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, with a commitment to deleveraging and reducing debt by roughly $2 billion [16]. Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have increased approximately 60% this year, driven by aggressive trade policies and central bank accumulation of gold reserves, which are expected to sustain the upward trend [17][18]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate reductions and concerns over the labor market have contributed to the rally, pushing gold prices above $4,000 per ton for the first time [18]. Earnings Estimates and Valuation - Newmont's earnings estimates for 2025 have risen, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate currently at $6.06, indicating a year-over-year growth of 74.1% [20][21]. - The stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 12.56X, slightly below the industry's average of 12.74X, and offers a dividend yield of 1.1% with a payout ratio of 17% [19][21]. Investment Outlook - Newmont presents a compelling investment opportunity, supported by a strong pipeline of growth projects, solid Tier 1 operations, and a healthy financial foundation [24]. - The strategic focus on high-return, long-life assets, along with rising earnings estimates and favorable gold market trends, positions Newmont as an attractive option for investors [24].

Core Insights - Newmont Corporation's shares have increased by 150.5% year to date, driven by rising gold prices and strong earnings performance [1][6] - The company's stock has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry and the S&P 500, with notable gains among its peers [2] Financial Performance - Newmont's liquidity stands at $9.6 billion, with free cash flow reaching $1.6 billion, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase [14] - The company has distributed over $5.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the past two years [15] - Newmont's earnings estimates for 2025 have risen, with a projected year-over-year growth of 71.3% [20] Growth Projects and Strategic Focus - Newmont is investing in growth projects, including the Ahafo North expansion and other projects in Australia, aimed at increasing production capacity [9][10] - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has enhanced Newmont's portfolio, expected to generate $500 million in annual run-rate synergies [11] - The company has divested non-core assets to focus on Tier 1 assets, anticipating $3 billion in after-tax cash proceeds from its divestiture program [12][13] Market Conditions and Valuation - Gold prices have surged approximately 60% this year, influenced by global trade tensions and central bank purchases [18] - Newmont's current forward price/earnings ratio is 13.11X, in line with the industry average, and the company is trading at a discount compared to some peers [21] Investment Outlook - Newmont is positioned for attractive returns due to its strong project portfolio, financial health, and favorable market conditions for gold [24]

Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corporation's shares have surged 35.6% in the past three months, driven by rising gold prices and strong earnings performance, supported by operational efficiency and a robust Tier 1 portfolio [1][7]. Group 1: Stock Performance - NEM stock has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 29% rise and the S&P 500's increase of 11.4% [2]. - Among peers, Barrick Mining Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, and Kinross Gold Corporation have seen stock increases of 36%, 24.1%, and 49%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - Technical indicators show bullish momentum for NEM, with the stock trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), indicating a long-term uptrend [5]. Group 3: Growth Projects and Strategic Focus - Newmont is investing in growth projects like the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana and the Cadia Panel Caves in Australia, aimed at expanding production capacity and extending mine life [10]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has created a leading portfolio with a multi-decade production profile, expected to deliver significant shareholder value and synergies of $500 million annually [11]. - Newmont has divested non-core businesses, completing a divestiture program that is expected to generate $3 billion in after-tax cash proceeds in 2025 [12]. Group 4: Financial Health - Newmont has a strong liquidity position with $10.2 billion in liquidity, including $6.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and a free cash flow of $1.7 billion, up 42% from the prior quarter [13]. - The company has returned approximately $2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and reduced debt by $1.4 billion since the beginning of 2025 [13]. Group 5: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have surged 40% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases, with prices exceeding $3,600 per ton for the first time [16]. - Newmont stands to benefit from the strength in gold prices, which is expected to enhance profitability and cash flow generation [14]. Group 6: Cost Challenges - Newmont faces challenges from rising production costs, with costs applicable to sales and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) increasing by around 6% and 2% year over year, respectively [18]. - The company anticipates AISC for its total portfolio to rise to $1,630 per ounce in 2025, up from $1,516 per ounce in 2024 [19]. Group 7: Earnings Estimates - Newmont's earnings estimates for 2025 have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings at $5.30, indicating a year-over-year growth of 52.3% [20]. Group 8: Valuation - Newmont is currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 14.88X, which is a discount compared to the industry's average of 15.59X [21]. Group 9: Investment Outlook - Newmont presents an attractive investment case with a robust portfolio of growth projects and solid financial health, although higher production costs may impact margins [24].

2024 Performance & 2025 Guidance - The company delivered 68Moz of gold and 153kt of copper in 2024[7] - The company generated $29B in free cash flow[7] - The company returned $11B to shareholders through quarterly dividends[9] - The company returned $12B to shareholders through share repurchases[9] - The company retired $14B in debt, reaching reduction target[11] Production Growth & Investment - Joint venture partner has guided to delivering ~20% more gold in 2027 from Nevada Gold Mines (385%) and Pueblo Viejo (40%)[30] - Lihir is expected to deliver at least ~30% more gold in 2028 due to higher grades from Phase 14a layback[31] - Peñasquito anticipates delivering ~30% more gold in 2025[31] - Boddington expects to deliver ~30% more gold production in 2027 as stripping is completed in 2026[32] - Tanami expansion is expected to deliver ~35% more gold beginning in 2028[32] 2025 Guidance - Managed operations gold production is guided at 42Moz, with non-managed operations contributing 14Moz, totaling 56Moz for the Tier 1 portfolio[47] - Managed operations gold CAS is guided at $1170/oz, with non-managed operations at $1240/oz, resulting in $1180/oz for the total Tier 1 portfolio[47] - Managed operations gold AISC is guided at $1630/oz, with non-managed operations at $1555/oz, resulting in $1620/oz for the total Tier 1 portfolio[47] - Sustaining capital for managed operations is projected at $15B, and $03B for non-managed operations, totaling $18B[47] - Development capital is projected at $11B for managed operations and $02B for non-managed operations, totaling $13B[47] Capital Allocation & Divestiture Program - The company targets maintaining financial flexibility with cash above $30B[48] - The company targets an investment-grade balance sheet with debt below $80B[48] - The company anticipates ~$18B for sustaining capital in 2025, working to decrease to ~$15B by 2028[48] - The company has a $30B share repurchase program authorized through October 2026[48] - The company expects ~$25B in net cash in 2025 from announced sales[7]