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中国石油数据汇总Oil Data Digest -China Oil Data Summary
2025-08-05 03:19
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese oil industry**, specifically analyzing June supply, apparent demand, and trade data for China. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Apparent Demand Growth**: Chinese apparent oil demand grew by **5% YoY** in June, returning to the top of the 5-year range, driven by strong demand for naphtha, jet fuel, and diesel [2][3][6] 2. **Crude Imports Surge**: Crude imports increased by **1.2 mb/d** in June, with significant contributions from Saudi Arabia (+52% MoM) and Iran (+88% MoM) [4][54][55] 3. **Refinery Throughput**: Refinery throughput rose sharply by **1.2 mb/d** to **15.2 mb/d**, marking a record for June runs as state-owned refiners exited seasonal maintenance [5][61][62] 4. **Refined Products Exports**: Exports of refined products increased by **260 kb/d MoM**, with gasoline exports rising due to improved margins, although overall gasoline exports were down **16% YoY** [6][70][72] 5. **Diesel Demand Recovery**: Apparent diesel demand saw a **3% YoY** increase, marking the first month of positive growth since November 2024, supported by logistics sector demand [12][16] 6. **Jet Fuel Demand Growth**: Apparent jet fuel demand rose by **170 kb/d MoM**, driven by increased international travel and supportive government policies [28][33][35] 7. **Naphtha Demand Spike**: Naphtha demand surged by **415 kb/d MoM**, attributed to the high import tax on US LPG, making naphtha a more attractive feedstock [46][49] 8. **LPG Demand Decline**: Apparent LPG demand fell by **135 kb/d MoM** due to the impact of US-China tariffs, leading to a significant disruption in the market [41][45] 9. **Crude Production Increase**: Chinese crude production increased by **80 kb/d MoM**, reflecting seasonal trends and new field startups [52][54] 10. **Inventory Levels**: Crude stocks built by **13.5 million barrels** in June, reaching record levels, driven by high imports from Iran and Saudi Arabia [159][161] Additional Important Insights 1. **Manufacturing PMI**: The Manufacturing PMI rose to **49.7** in June, indicating slight improvement in manufacturing activity, although it remained in contraction territory [10][13][14] 2. **Impact of NEVs**: New energy vehicles (NEVs) are displacing diesel and gasoline demand, with NEV sales reaching a **53% penetration rate** in the domestic market [20][21][16] 3. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, have affected crude buying patterns and may disrupt future imports [57][60] 4. **Independent Refiners' Challenges**: Independent refiners are facing challenges due to a shortage of crude import quotas and potential sanctions on Russian oil, which could disrupt their operations [137][138] 5. **Future Outlook**: The outlook for the independent refining sector remains troubled, with potential capacity reductions due to anti-involution policies and environmental regulations [138][139] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Chinese oil industry.