Brazil’s government on Wednesday rolled out a long-awaited relief package including 30 billion reais ($5.6 billion) in credit to support local companies hit by US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs https://t.co/YzJYpBGAOU ...

August 8, 2025 07:27 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Japan M Foundation Japan Summer School: Global Economy Outlook Our Global Macro View: Which Economic Indicators Matter? Understanding the global economy requires careful interpretation of various macroeconomic indicators. In this session, we will share our global macro outlook and explain how we assess the significance of key economic data. Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd. Chiwoong Lee Principal Global Economist Chiwoong.Lee@morganstanleymufg.com + ...

Brazilian company Suzano is cutting wood-pulp production after negotiations with clients in China, its biggest market, were hit by uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. https://t.co/NMbKWTdUn6 ...

Summary of Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) Update / Briefing August 06, 2025 Industry Overview - The briefing focuses on the U.S. Customs market and recent trade actions affecting importers, particularly in relation to tariffs and trade agreements [6][7][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Recent U.S. Trade Actions**: - Six major trade actions are highlighted, with specific dates for implementation [7]. - Notable actions include the increase of tariffs on fentanyl imports from Canada and the introduction of copper tariffs from Brazil [10][11][12]. 2. **Tariff Increases**: - Fentanyl tariffs from Canada increased from 25% to 35% [13]. - Copper tariffs from Brazil set at 40%, raising the total tariff to 50% when combined with existing rates [25][26]. 3. **Reciprocal Tariffs**: - A new set of reciprocal tariffs will be implemented affecting 95 countries, with rates changing from a universal 10% to new specific rates [30][34]. - Countries with trade deficits with the U.S. may see increases in tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% [34]. 4. **In-Transit Exemptions**: - Exemptions for goods loaded on vessels before specific deadlines to avoid additional tariffs [26][56]. - Documentation is emphasized as crucial for claiming these exemptions [28][29]. 5. **Impact on India**: - An additional 25% duty on imports from India starting August 27, raising the total tariff to 50% due to geopolitical tensions [54][55]. 6. **End of De Minimis**: - The end of de minimis for low-value shipments (under $800) will apply to all countries starting August 29, requiring formal entries for all imports [59][62]. 7. **Ongoing Investigations**: - Section 232 investigations are ongoing, focusing on national security risks related to various industries, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [68][69]. 8. **Legal Challenges**: - Legal challenges against the government's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEPA) are ongoing, with potential implications for future tariff enforcement [73][74][78]. 9. **Transshipment Concerns**: - The administration is concerned about transshipment practices that may evade tariffs, particularly involving inputs from non-market economies like China [82][90]. 10. **Value Chain Understanding**: - Importers are encouraged to understand the full value chain of their goods to comply with new regulations and avoid penalties [94][96]. Other Important Content - **Documentation and Compliance**: Emphasis on the importance of maintaining accurate documentation for customs declarations and understanding the life cycle of customs entries [99][100]. - **Future Outlook**: Continued monitoring of trade actions and legal developments is advised, as changes are expected to impact various sectors significantly [71][72]. This summary encapsulates the critical updates and insights from the Expeditors International briefing, focusing on the evolving landscape of U.S. trade policies and their implications for importers.

South Africa’s government is putting the final touches to an overarching package that aims to shield businesses against the fallout from punitive US trade tariffs https://t.co/3drER2UIJu ...

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged citizens to buy, sell and promote local products, amid global economic instability in the wake of US trade tariffs https://t.co/RuYeIA2HTR ...

Summary of Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) Update / Briefing July 29, 2025 Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) - **Industry**: Air Cargo and Logistics Key Points and Arguments Air Market Dynamics - The air market update focuses on the Americas, discussing capacity, demand, and geopolitical influences affecting air cargo [6][7] - Global air capacity grew by 4% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, with a notable 44% increase on the Transpacific route [8][9] - Freighter capacity specifically saw a decline of 3% in both directions between Asia and the US, while freighter deployment to Europe increased by 8% [11][12] - The ecommerce sector is experiencing a shift, with a significant reduction in ecommerce volumes flying into the US due to the end of de minimis exemptions [29][30] Geopolitical and Trade Influences - Geopolitical tensions and trade barriers are reshaping air cargo routes, with a notable shift from US-bound cargo to Europe and Southeast Asia [36][38] - The ongoing trade negotiations and tariff changes are creating uncertainty, impacting supply chains and air freight demand [47][61] - The Chinese economy is facing multiple headwinds, affecting its trade relationships and demand for air cargo services [51][52] Capacity and Demand Trends - The demand for air freight has been healthy, with a 6.6% growth in global air demand in Q1 2025, but is expected to level off to around 3-4% for the rest of the year [21][24] - The inventory-to-sales ratio is a critical indicator, with lower inventory levels indicating higher demand for air freight [23] - Vietnam has emerged as a significant exporter to the US, with a 55% growth in the first five months of 2025 compared to 2024, driven by the tech sector [44][45] Future Outlook - The expectation for new aircraft deliveries has been pushed back to 2027-2028, leading to an aging fleet and increased maintenance needs [19][20] - The air cargo market is expected to continue adjusting to shifting trade patterns, with potential increases in rates for US outbound cargo if demand rises without corresponding capacity [84][85] - The geopolitical landscape is likely to remain volatile, impacting global supply chains and air freight dynamics [75][76] Other Important Insights - The webinar highlighted the importance of adapting to changing trade policies and the need for companies to reassess their supply chain strategies in light of geopolitical tensions [58][60] - The discussion emphasized the role of ecommerce in driving air cargo demand and the challenges faced by companies in navigating regulatory changes [29][30][31] - The potential for increased investment in infrastructure, particularly in Vietnam, to support growing demand was noted as a positive development [45][46]

Market Trends & Trade Deals - European and Asian markets show optimism for tariff relief, driven by potential EU-US trade deal imposing 15% tariffs on European imports, a significant reduction from the current 27.5% levy on cars [1][3][4][6] - US has been charging an extra 10% tariff on EU exports since April on top of pre-existing duties, which average just below 5% [5] - Optimism grows for more trade deals after Japan clinched a pact with the US on Wednesday [3] Company Earnings & Performance - Alphabet (Google's parent) beat expectations with adjusted earnings per share at $2.31 and revenue at $81.2 billion, driven by advertising and cloud businesses, but capital expenditure will climb to $85 billion [2][10] - Tesla's second-quarter profits fell by around a fifth, with adjusted earnings of 40 cents per share and revenue of $22.5 billion, falling short of expectations; plans to start production of its cyber cab in 2026 [2][11][12] - American Airlines' Q2 passenger revenue came in at $13.12 billion, slightly above the expected $13.11 billion, with adjusted earnings per share at 95 cents, higher than the expected 79 cents, despite the stock being down over 4.5% in pre-market [23] - Southwest Airlines' Q2 revenue came in at $7.24 billion, below the expected $7.3 billion, with adjusted earnings per share at 43 cents versus the forecasted 53 cents; expects economic turmoil to erase as much as $1 billion of its annual pre-tax profit this year [26][27] - Keurig Dr Pepper posted second-quarter revenue of $4.16 billion, slightly above the expected $4.14 billion, with adjusted earnings per share at 49 cents, meeting expectations [27][28] Sector Analysis & Investment Strategies - Cyclical sectors (consumer discretionary, industrials, materials, financials, tech, communication services, real estate) sales and profits swell in economic expansions and shrink in recessions [32] - Defensive sectors (consumer staples, healthcare, utilities, energy) demand stays steady in booms or busts [34][35] - Two stocks (Nvidia plus Microsoft) are now approaching the entire value of all the defensive sectors in the S&P 500 [36][38] European Banks & Luxury Goods - Deutsche Bank reported its highest second-quarter pre-tax profits in nearly two decades [46] - BMP Parabar recorded second quarter boosted by its fixed income and currency traders [46] - Lloyd's Bank reported higher than expected pre-tax profit and increased its dividend [47] - LVMH is down more than 35% from 6 months ago, analysts expect sales to LVMH's key fashion and leather goods division to have dropped by 7.8% in the second quarter [55][57] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin may reach $300,000 by the end of next year [60] - Bitcoin is about 10% of the AUM of gold [60]

Trade and Geopolitical Landscape - The Australian government views U S tariffs as self-defeating and economically harmful [2][3] - Australia aims to maintain strong relationships with all key partners, avoiding a zero-sum approach [9][10] - Australia needs to pragmatically separate politics from economics in its trade relationships, which is increasingly difficult due to the weaponization of trade and investment [14] Defense Spending - There is discussion around increasing Australia's defense budget, with a previous goal of 2% of GDP [5] - The broader geopolitical environment necessitates a national conversation in Australia about the need for increased defense spending, considering public preferences for spending on health, education, and social services [6][7] - President Trump has been talking about a desire to see Australia increases defense budget to 35% [4] Australia-China Relations - Prime Minister Albanese's six-day visit to China was viewed positively, signaling resilience in the relationship with Australia's most important trading partner [1][8][9] - Australia must avoid complacency and recognize that the relationship with China is more complex than in previous decades [13] Domestic Policy - The Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme is not up for reform and will be defended by both sides of Australian politics [3][4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net income of $299 million or $2.01 per diluted share for Q2 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of $533 million [13][19] - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $4.6 billion, exceeding the previous quarter due to higher realized pricing [13] - Operating income increased by 39% sequentially to $383 million, driven by steel metal spread expansion [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Steel operations generated operating income of $382 million in Q2, over 65% higher sequentially, despite a decline in flat rolled shipments [14][15] - Metal recycling operations reported operating income of $21 million, $4 million lower than the previous quarter due to lower ferrous pricing [15] - Steel fabrication achieved operating income of $93 million, lower than Q1 due to increased substrate costs [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The domestic steel industry operated at an estimated production utilization rate of 77%, while the company's mills operated at 85% [28] - Coated flat rolled steel volume and pricing compressed due to an inventory overhang related to imports [29] - The company is the largest North American metals recycler for ferrous and nonferrous metals, with ongoing growth in supplier relationships [15][27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sustainability, with a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 15% by 2030 [21][22] - The aluminum operations are expected to ramp up production, with a projected EBITDA breakeven before the end of 2025 [18][45] - The company aims to leverage its competitive position in the aluminum market, which is experiencing a domestic supply deficit [39][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the steel demand and pricing dynamics, citing ongoing onshoring activities and infrastructure spending [35][47] - The company anticipates a significant increase in profitability for the aluminum operations in the second half of 2025 [18][90] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong safety culture and operational reliability [12][37] Other Important Information - The company repaid $400 million in senior notes and ended the quarter with liquidity of $1.9 billion [19] - Capital investments for the second half of 2025 are expected to be around $400 million, primarily for aluminum and biocarbon projects [19][20] - The company has a strong cash flow generation capability, with free cash flow increasing from an average of $540 million to $3 billion over the past five years [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the aluminum business and utilization rates - Management confirmed that there is no material change in expectations for aluminum operations, with confidence in achieving EBITDA positivity in the second half of the year [54][57] Question: Sinton mill's EBITDA performance - Management did not disclose specific financial metrics for Sinton but indicated significant improvement compared to Q1, with expectations for further increases in the second half [60][62] Question: Market environment for aluminum ramp-up - Management noted a positive market environment for aluminum, with a growing supply deficit and strong customer interest [65][68] Question: Impact of tariffs on pig iron sourcing - Management clarified that their long products mills do not use pig iron, and they are monitoring the tariff situation closely [72][74] Question: Benefits of biocarbon - Biocarbon is expected to reduce carbon footprint by up to 35% and could potentially replace a significant portion of anthracite usage in steelmaking [83][84]