Swiss watch exports returned to growth last month as US demand continued an uneven recovery from the fallout over trade tariffs https://t.co/oHKCJxFFmS ...

Core Viewpoint - The Italian distiller has provided cautiously positive guidance for the upcoming year, anticipating that sales and earnings growth will be affected by trade tariffs and currency fluctuations [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Sales and Earnings Growth - The company expects growth in both sales and earnings, although this growth is anticipated to be tempered due to external factors [1] External Factors - Trade tariffs and currency effects are identified as significant influences that may impact the company's financial performance in the coming year [1]

Core Perspective - The agreement seeks to enhance trade relations between Europe and South America in response to the uncertainties created by Trump's trade tariffs [1] Group 1 - The pact is designed to facilitate trade between two significant regions, potentially leading to increased economic collaboration [1] - The initiative comes at a time of unprecedented uncertainty in global trade dynamics, particularly influenced by U.S. trade policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's tariff agenda faces significant challenges following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down his emergency tariffs, leading to confusion over existing trade agreements and prompting foreign governments to reassess their positions [2][3][11]. Trade Agreements and Tariff Changes - The Supreme Court ruled that Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which has raised questions about the validity of trade agreements based on IEEPA tariff rates [2][4]. - Trump has since implemented a 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with a potential increase to 15% being uncertain [3][16]. - Countries that negotiated deals based on IEEPA may find themselves at a disadvantage, while those that resisted U.S. demands, like Brazil, may feel vindicated [9][10]. Impact on Specific Countries - Japan, which secured a deal lowering reciprocal tariffs to 15% in exchange for a $550 billion investment pledge, is now facing additional burdens due to the new 10% universal tariffs [9][10]. - India has paused plans for an interim trade deal, indicating a need for clarity following the court ruling [11]. - The European Parliament has postponed a vote on a trade deal with the U.S., expressing concerns over the new tariffs and potential retaliation [12][14]. Future Trade Strategies - The Trump administration is exploring alternative legal pathways to maintain its trade agenda, including Section 301 investigations and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 [19][21]. - The tariff landscape remains in flux, with ongoing negotiations and agreements with eighteen countries still not fully complete or binding [20][21].

Currency Market Overview - The dollar index (DXY00) fell by -0.16% on Wednesday, influenced by a stronger yuan reaching a 2.75-year high and trade uncertainty following President Trump's comments on tariffs [1] - The dollar's losses were limited due to a weaker yen, which dropped to a 2-week low against the dollar, and higher T-note yields that strengthened the dollar's interest rate differentials [2] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem's comments were neutral for the dollar, indicating that the fed funds rate is near neutral, balancing risks to employment and inflation [3] - The FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [4] Eurozone Economic Indicators - The EUR/USD rose by +0.29% on Wednesday, supported by upward revisions in Q4 German private consumption (+0.5%), government spending (+1.1%), and capital investment (+1.0%) [5][6] - Despite the positive revisions, the German March GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined by -0.5 to -24.7, which was weaker than the expected increase [6] Japanese Yen Dynamics - The USD/JPY rose by +0.33% as the yen fell to a 2-week low, influenced by the nomination of two new BOJ board members known for their accommodative monetary policy stance [7]

Trade Relations and Government Response - South Korea's government is shifting to a collaborative defense of national trade interests, planning intensive consultations with major exporters and industry associations to address private sector concerns in discussions with the U.S. [2][9] - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for reciprocal tariffs as unlawful, but the Trump administration quickly responded with a new 10% global tariff, potentially increasing to 15% [3][9] Investment Commitments and Legislative Pressure - The South Korean government is under pressure to expedite a $350 billion investment commitment in the U.S., with delays in legislation potentially triggering higher tariffs [4][9] - The success of negotiations with U.S. trade officials will depend on South Korea's ability to fast-track investment-related legislation through the National Assembly [6] Impact on Key Industries - The Korean stock market is facing challenges, particularly for companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as the tech sector prepares for the implications of new global tariffs [5] - Hyundai Motor and Kia are navigating a complex environment with existing Section 232 auto tariffs remaining in place despite recent legal victories regarding other duties [5][9]

Group 1: Trade and Tariffs - Taiwan has secured Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff treatment for all items under Section 232, which is expected to protect high-tech semiconductor supply chains from US tariff volatility [2][8] - The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the President exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose global tariffs, reaffirming that tariff powers primarily rest with Congress [3][8] - In response to the Supreme Court ruling, the White House is considering alternative trade measures, including a new 10% temporary import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 [4][8] Group 2: Corporate Financials - Altice France's total debts and liabilities have reached approximately €17 billion, indicating significant leverage accumulated during its expansion [5][8] - Creditors are reportedly becoming more aggressive as Altice France's founder, Patrick Drahi, attempts to restructure assets to maintain control [5] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has issued new recall filings affecting over 13,000 vehicles, including recalls from Triumph Motorcycles America Ltd. (8,849 vehicles), Toyota Motor Corporation (4,374 vehicles), and General Motors LLC (22 vehicles) [7][8]

Economic Outlook - Fitch Ratings projects that U.S. federal deficits will remain elevated through the 2027 fiscal year, with little political will for fiscal consolidation ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections [2] - The Trump administration may use alternative authorities to impose new tariffs, which could increase inflationary pressures while addressing trade imbalances [3] Technology Sector - Meta Platforms announced a significant agreement to acquire and deploy "millions" of chips from Nvidia, including Blackwell GPUs and Grace CPUs, aiming to enhance AI capabilities for billions of users [4][5] - This partnership solidifies Nvidia's market leadership, although it raises concerns about the substantial capital expenditure required for AI advancements, contributing to volatility in tech indices [5] Energy Sector - Devon Energy reported a strong Q4 with $702 million in free cash flow, exceeding analyst expectations for production and earnings, with an average production of 851,000 barrels of oil equivalent (Boe) per day [6] - The company anticipates a spending outlook of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion for 2026, despite forecasting a production cut of 10,000 Boe per day in Q1 due to severe winter weather [7] Investment Strategies - Carl Icahn has shifted his investment strategy, reducing exposure in telecommunications and specialty chemicals by cutting stakes in EchoStar and International Flavors & Fragrances, while increasing holdings in Centuri Holdings and Monro, Inc. [8][9] - Netflix Co-CEO Ted Sarandos indicated a cautious approach to media industry consolidation, preferring to wait for Paramount Global's next move before making any strategic decisions [9] Global Macro Trends - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is facing pressure to consider a rate hike as inflation remains at 3.1%, slightly above the target band [10] - Wall Street is experiencing high volatility, influenced by AI-driven growth potential and risks from rapidly evolving technology and trade policies [11]

Core Viewpoint - West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. reported challenging financial results for Q4 2025, with significant losses attributed to elevated softwood lumber duties, oversupply issues, and reduced demand for wood-based products, while also highlighting ongoing capital investments aimed at improving operational efficiency and cost management [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q4 2025 sales were $1.165 billion, down from $1.307 billion in Q3 2025 - Q4 2025 earnings were $(751) million, or $(9.63) per diluted share, compared to $(204) million, or $(2.63) per diluted share in Q3 2025 - Full year 2025 sales totaled $5.462 billion, down from $6.174 billion in 2024, with full year earnings of $(937) million, or $(12.08) per diluted share, compared to $(5) million, or $(0.07) per diluted share in 2024 [1][2][3]. Segment Performance - Europe Engineered Wood Products (EWP) segment Adjusted EBITDA was $4 million in Q4 2025 - North America EWP segment Adjusted EBITDA was $(24) million, excluding $239 million of restructuring and impairment charges - Lumber segment Adjusted EBITDA was $(57) million, excluding $473 million of restructuring and impairment charges [1][2][6]. Capital Allocation and Share Repurchase - The company repurchased 108,079 shares for $7 million in Q4 2025 and 1,639,207 shares for $124 million in 2025 - Cash and short-term investments decreased to $202 million at the end of 2025 from $641 million at the end of 2024 - Capital expenditures in Q4 2025 were $139 million, with full year capital expenditures at $411 million [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - The U.S. housing market is expected to stabilize, with a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts at 1.25 million units in October 2025 - Demand for new home construction may face challenges due to mortgage rate fluctuations and housing affordability issues - In Europe, demand for wood products is anticipated to improve in the long term, driven by an aging housing stock and increased use of OSB [2][3][4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on modernizing its operations, including the completion of a new lumber mill in Texas and ramping up an OSB mill in South Carolina - Strategic decisions have been made to close or curtail uneconomic mills to align production with customer demand - The company aims to maintain robust liquidity and a balanced capital allocation strategy to enhance long-term shareholder value [1][2][3].

Luke Tilley of Wilmington Trust writes in The US labour market is in an extremely weakened condition. We are officially projecting a 60,000 gain in private payrolls and the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.5%. Lo joins us now for more.Welcome back. I feel like I've been asking this question for the best part of 12 months now. What is a good number on Wednesday.What does that look like these days. Well, it's obviously a lot lower because of the low labor force growth that we have. But I don't spend a lot of ...