The Allstate Corporation (NYSE:ALL) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAlister Gobin - Head of Investor RelationsJesse Edward Merten - CFOJohn Dugenske - President, Investments and Financial ProductsMario Rizzo - President,Property-LiabilityThomas J. Wilson - CEOConference Call ParticipantsBob Huang - AnalystC. Gregory Peters - AnalystDavid Motemaden - AnalystElyse Greenspan - AnalystJoshua Shanker - AnalystMichael Zaremski - AnalystRobert Cox - AnalystYaron Kinar - Anal ...

The Allstate Corporation (NYSE:ALL) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAlister Gobin - Head of Investor RelationsJesse Edward Merten - CFOJohn Dugenske - President, Investments and Financial ProductsMario Rizzo - President,Property-LiabilityThomas J. Wilson - CEOConference Call ParticipantsBob Huang - AnalystC. Gregory Peters - AnalystDavid Motemaden - AnalystElyse Greenspan - AnalystJoshua Shanker - AnalystMichael Zaremski - AnalystRobert Cox - AnalystYaron Kinar - Anal ...

The Allstate Corporation (NYSE:ALL) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 09:00 AM ET Speaker10Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Allstate's Fourth Quarter Earnings Investor Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star one on your telephone. If your question has been answered and you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, simply press sta ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues increased to $17.3 billion in Q3 2025, with year-to-date revenues up 5.8% to $50.3 billion compared to the prior year [4][10] - Net income for Q3 was $3.7 billion, with adjusted net income at $3 billion or $11.17 per share, reflecting strong property liability results and higher investment income [4][10] - Return on equity for the last 12 months was 34.7% [11][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Property liability premiums increased by 6.1% in Q3 and 7.4% year-to-date, driven by higher average premiums and policy growth [10] - Protection services saw a 12.7% increase in premiums compared to Q3 2024, driven by growth in protection plans [10][14] - Total policies in force grew to 209.5 million, a 3.8% increase year-over-year [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Auto insurance new business is evenly split among Allstate agents, independent agents, and direct channels, with all channels showing growth [7] - The homeowners business maintained a competitive advantage with a low-90s combined ratio target [12] - Non-standard auto insurance market share increased, particularly through independent agents and direct channels [15][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase personal and property liability market share while expanding customer protection offerings [4] - The transformative growth initiative, now in phase four, focuses on enhancing market share and operational efficiency [5][9] - Investment in artificial intelligence is a key component of the strategy to improve operational efficiency and customer experience [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's capital position and flexibility in deploying capital for growth, share repurchases, or acquisitions [25][26] - The competitive landscape remains challenging, but the company has successfully maintained profitability and market share [56] - Inflation is being monitored closely, with management indicating that while inflation is not fully under control, the risks have become more understood [84] Other Important Information - The company has returned $1.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2025 [22] - The protection services business generated $3.3 billion in revenue with 171 million policies in force [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital management and liquidity at the holding company - Management discussed the flexibility of holding capital at the holding company for various uses, including share repurchases and investments in growth [24][25] Question: Pricing trends excluding New York and New Jersey - Management indicated that overall pricing is adequate, with minimal rate increases needed, and they will respond to loss trends as necessary [28][30] Question: Artificial intelligence strategy and technology budget - Management highlighted the potential of AI to enhance customer service and operational efficiency, with ongoing development of the ALLI system [33][36] Question: Auto retention trends and active brands - Management noted that retention is being impacted by the transition from inactive to active brands, with efforts to improve retention through new product offerings [65][66] Question: Longevity and profitability of non-standard customers - Management stated that while non-standard customers may have shorter lifespans, they remain profitable and are a valuable segment [74][75] Question: Outlook on inflation - Management acknowledged that inflation impacts various aspects of the business but noted that the risks associated with inflation have become more manageable [82][84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues increased to $17.3 billion in Q3 2025, with year-to-date revenues up 5.8% to $50.3 billion compared to the prior year [5][14] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $3.7 billion, with adjusted net income at $3 billion or $11.17 per share, reflecting strong property liability results and higher investment income [5][15] - Return on equity for the last twelve months was 34.7% [5][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Property liability premiums increased by 6.1% in Q3 2025 and 7.4% for the first nine months of the year [14] - Protection services revenue grew by 12.7% compared to 2024, driven by protection plans [14][18] - Policies in force grew to 209.5 million, a 3.8% increase year-over-year [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Auto insurance new business is evenly split between Allstate agents, independent agents, and direct from the company, with auto policies in force in active brands increasing by 2.8% compared to the prior year [20][21] - Homeowners policies in force in active brands increased by 3% compared to the prior year [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase personal property liability market share and expand customer protection offerings [4] - The transformative growth initiative, now in Phase four, focuses on reducing costs and increasing market share through expanded distribution and improved customer service [6][7] - The introduction of AI technology, including generative AI, is expected to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [10][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining strong margins in auto insurance, with a focus on responding to loss trends [40][42] - The competitive landscape remains challenging, with management noting the importance of maintaining profitability while growing policies in force [76][78] - Inflation is being monitored closely, with adjustments made to the investment portfolio to mitigate risks [110][116] Other Important Information - The company returned $1.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2025 [30] - The investment portfolio's book value increased by 39% since Q1 2021, benefiting net investment income [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital management and liquidity at the holding company - Management discussed the flexibility of holding capital at the holding company level for various uses, including share repurchases and acquisitions [33][36] Question: Pricing trends excluding New York and New Jersey - Management indicated that overall pricing is adequate, with minimal rate increases needed, and will respond to loss trends as necessary [40][42] Question: AI technology implementation and its impact - Management highlighted the potential of AI to improve customer interactions and operational efficiency, with ongoing development of the AI ecosystem [46][50] Question: Exclusive agent channel performance - Management noted a reduction in the number of Allstate agents but emphasized increased productivity and the importance of the agent network in the growth strategy [60][62] Question: Market dynamics and pricing competition - Management acknowledged the competitive environment and the need to balance pricing with profitability, emphasizing the company's historical performance in maintaining margins [74][78]

Core Thesis - Formula One Group (FWONK) is positioned for transformative growth through strategic expansion in the global motorsports ecosystem, including acquisitions and new venue additions [2][3][5] Financial Performance - As of October 8th, FWONK's share price was $106.74, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 103.72 and 72.99 respectively [1] - The company has $14.2 billion in contracted future revenue, indicating strong revenue visibility [3] Growth Drivers - The acquisition of MotoGP and the planned entry of the Cadillac F1 team in 2026 are expected to enhance FWONK's market position and audience reach by 40% [2][3] - Significant growth in consumer engagement is evidenced by a 79% year-over-year increase in F1 ticket searches, 65% growth in F1 TV interest, and 89% growth in merchandise searches [3] Strategic Initiatives - Management, led by CEO Derek Chang, is focusing on digital platform consolidation, geographic expansion, and disciplined capital allocation, including a $1.1 billion share repurchase authorization [4] - New venues like the Madrid Grand Prix are expected to enhance market penetration in the U.S. and Europe, while F1 TV subscriber growth and merchandise expansion provide recurring revenue streams [4] Competitive Advantages - FWONK benefits from structural advantages such as premium content scarcity, affluent demographics, and regulatory moats that support sustainable growth [5] - Near-term catalysts include negotiations for Apple TV broadcasts and the potential Liberty Live split-off, which could lead to a re-rating of the stock [5] Investment Opportunity - FWONK represents a unique investment opportunity, combining stable contracted revenue with strategic growth catalysts and strong consumer momentum, appealing to investors in the premium motorsports entertainment sector [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for Q1 2025 were $16.5 billion, an increase of 7.8% compared to Q1 2024 [6] - Net income for the quarter was $566 million, with adjusted net income at $949 million, translating to $3.53 per diluted share [6] - Adjusted net income return on equity was 23.7% over the last twelve months [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Property liability business generated $360 million in underwriting income, with a combined ratio of 97.4%, which was 4.4 points higher than the prior year due to $3.3 billion in gross catastrophe losses [13] - The auto combined ratio was 91.3%, with average earned premium increases outpacing losses [14] - Homeowners policies grew by 2.5% year-over-year, while total property liability policies increased by 0.1% in the quarter [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - New business applications for auto insurance were up 31.2% compared to the prior year, with strong growth across all distribution channels [18] - The homeowners business generated mid-teens growth in revenue, indicating a strong growth opportunity [70] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase personal property liability market share and expand customer protection [6] - A transformative growth strategy is being executed to improve customer value and lower costs, which has resulted in a 6.7-point improvement in the adjusted expense ratio [9] - The company is focused on expanding distribution channels, enhancing agent productivity, and increasing direct sales [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the industry is operating with good profitability and does not foresee aggressive rate reductions despite competitive pressures [31] - The SAVE program aims to improve customer interactions and retention, with a goal of enhancing affordability and overall customer experience [39] - Management expressed confidence in the company's strategy and ability to deliver value for shareholders and protection to customers [28] Other Important Information - The company completed the sale of its employee voluntary benefits business for $2 billion on April 1, 2025 [8] - A $1 billion share repurchase program was instituted, with a quarterly dividend increase to $1 per share [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Views on competition and pricing aggressiveness - Management indicated that while there is a reduction in the rate of increases in auto insurance, the market remains rational with a focus on profitability [31][33] Question: Sustainability of recent improvements in policies in force - Management noted that new business levels are up significantly, and retention is stabilizing, with efforts in the SAVE program aimed at improving customer retention [36][39] Question: New applications and advertising impact - Management confirmed that new business levels are being maintained and that there is potential for further growth with product rollouts and advertising investments [44] Question: Impact of tariffs on auto insurance margins - Management stated that they will manage through tariff impacts and are prepared to adjust pricing as necessary to maintain margins [92] Question: Retention challenges and SAVE program effectiveness - Management acknowledged that retention remains a challenge but emphasized efforts to improve customer experience and affordability through the SAVE program [104][108]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q4 2024 decreased approximately 10% to $140.1 million compared to $156 million in the same period last year [21][49] - Gross margin improved significantly by 690 basis points year-over-year to 45.6%, with gross profit at $63.9 million [22][51] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $29.1 million, up from $28.5 million in the prior year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin increase of 250 basis points to 20.8% [53] - Free cash flow for Q4 was $1.8 million, a decrease of $28.1 million compared to the prior year, while total free cash flow for 2024 was $42 million, down from $88 million in 2023 [54][60] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Direct-to-consumer sales grew by 8% year-over-year, with significant growth in 17 brands across all channels [17][18] - B2B channel saw growth in 36 brands, supported by increased sales coverage [18] - National retailer channel experienced a 12% growth driven by SKU expansion and customer adoption [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall market sentiment has reverted to a cautious stance, with consumers holding back due to high prices and economic uncertainty [12][13] - The Mexican market is estimated to be between $3 billion and $5 billion, with opportunities in older car parks and modifications [80] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become a $1 billion enthusiast platform, focusing on enhancing consumer experiences and balancing sales channels [8][10] - Strategic partnerships and operational improvements are key focuses, with a commitment to debt reduction and financial discipline [11][19] - The company is expanding into Mexico and enhancing its product offerings, particularly in chemicals and performance additives [20][108] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains cautious about consumer spending and market conditions, with expectations for gradual improvement as new policies are understood [12][14] - The guidance for 2025 assumes no further deterioration in consumer confidence, with a focus on transformative growth initiatives [64][71] - The company acknowledges potential impacts from tariffs but believes proactive strategies can mitigate risks [73][74] Other Important Information - The company achieved a significant milestone by surpassing $100 million in direct-to-consumer sales on its e-commerce platform [25] - Operational improvements led to a 22% year-over-year reduction in past dues, reflecting a commitment to efficiency [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Could you talk about the Mexico opportunity? - The Mexican market is estimated to be between $3 billion and $5 billion, with a focus on older car parks and modifications [80] Question: Can you provide more detail on gross margin performance in Q4? - Gross margin improvements were driven by cost to serve efforts and purchasing price variance, with expectations for a more balanced performance in 2025 [86] Question: Does your guidance assume consumer confidence improves? - The guidance assumes that consumer confidence does not worsen, with potential for growth if conditions improve [90] Question: How are inventories in the channel? - Inventory levels are healthier than last year, with improved alignment between sell-in and sell-through [92] Question: Can you discuss the Cataclean acquisition? - The acquisition of Cataclean allows for expansion in the chemicals market, enhancing the company's product portfolio [108]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q4 2024 decreased approximately 10% to $140.1 million compared to $156 million in the same period last year [21][49] - Gross margin improved significantly by 690 basis points year-over-year to 45.6%, with gross profit at $63.9 million [22][51] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $29.1 million, up from $28.5 million in the prior year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin increase of 250 basis points to 20.8% [53] - For the full year 2024, net sales totaled $602.2 million, down from $659.7 million in 2023, while adjusted EBITDA was $110.5 million, down from $130.9 million [60][62] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Direct-to-consumer sales grew by 8% year-over-year, with significant growth in 17 brands across all channels [17][31] - The B2B channel saw a 12% growth driven by enhanced sales support and strategic partnerships [18][33] - Operational improvements led to a 22% year-over-year reduction in past dues, reflecting a commitment to operational efficiency [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall market sentiment has reverted to a cautious stance, with consumers holding back due to high prices and economic uncertainty [12][14] - The Mexican market is estimated to be between $3 billion and $5 billion, with opportunities in older car parks and modifications [80] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become a $1 billion enthusiast platform, focusing on enhancing consumer experiences and balancing sales channels [8][10] - Strategic initiatives include digital modernization, operational improvements, and expanding into new markets, including Mexico [20][30] - The company is committed to maintaining rigorous financial discipline while driving growth through strategic partnerships and product innovation [11][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding consumer spending and highlighted the impact of economic uncertainty on consumer confidence [12][64] - The guidance for 2025 assumes that consumer confidence does not worsen, with expectations for growth in the back half of the year [90][71] - The company remains optimistic about its transformative initiatives driving core business growth despite potential market softness [72][102] Other Important Information - The company achieved significant operational improvements, including $7.8 million in cost of service savings and a successful product launch strategy [24][25] - The company has made substantial progress in debt reduction, with $75 million prepaid on its term loan [48][57] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the Mexico opportunity? - The Mexican market is estimated to be between $3 billion and $5 billion, with a focus on older car parks and modifications [80] Question: Can you provide more detail on gross margin performance in Q4? - Gross margin improvements were driven by cost to serve efforts and purchasing price variance, with expectations for a more balanced margin throughout 2025 [84][87] Question: Does your guidance assume consumer confidence improves? - The guidance assumes that consumer confidence does not worsen, with potential for growth if conditions improve [90] Question: How are inventories in the channel? - Inventory levels are healthier than last year, with improved alignment between sell-in and sell-through [92] Question: Can you discuss the Cataclean acquisition? - The acquisition of Cataclean is seen as a growth opportunity in the chemicals sector, expanding the company's portfolio [108] Question: How is the modern truck segment performing? - The modern truck and off-road vertical is performing well, with 80% of vehicles sold in the U.S. being trucks, CVs, and SUVs [111] Question: Can you provide details on your core customer demographics? - The core customer demographic is modestly higher income, with expectations of new car purchases showing some hesitancy [114][116] Question: What impact did new product demand have on the top line in 2024? - New product launches contributed positively, with several achieving significant sales, but the primary growth driver remains B2B relationship repair [118][120]

Financial Performance - Allstate's total revenue increased by 12.3% to $64.1 billion[7] - Net income reached $4.6 billion for the full year[7] - The adjusted net income return on equity was 26.8% in 2024[7] - Net investment income increased by 24.8% to $3.092 billion[8] Property-Liability Insurance - Property-Liability insurance premiums increased by 11.2% to $53.866 billion[8] - The Property-Liability combined ratio was 94.3, a decrease of 10.2 percentage points[10] - Auto insurance underwriting income was $1.81 billion[10] - Homeowners insurance underwriting income was $1.319 billion[10] Transformative Growth - The adjusted expense ratio decreased from 27.9 in 2019 to 23.1 in 2024[9] - Personal lines new issued applications increased from 5.5 million to 9.7 million through exclusive agent, independent agent and direct distribution[9] - Personal lines policies in force increased from 33.5 million to 37.3 million[9] Capital Management - $24.5 billion has been returned to shareholders since 2015, including $17.4 billion in share repurchases and $7.1 billion in dividends[21] - The company authorized a $1.5 billion share repurchase program[21] - The quarterly common shareholder dividend increased by 8.7%[21]