All right, meantime, bond yields, they are down across the board on that social media post and kind of a a riskoff perspective of this entire market. Let's bring in Rick Santelli to kind of make sense of all this. Rick, I'm looking at a tenure at 4.05% one day.I get it, not a trend. Is there a risk here of sub4. You know, I think there there is a risk, but I also think the catalyst for this move makes the risk of a test of 4% on a closing basis less technically significant.So, as you see the charts I put in ...

Group 1 - The market is pricing in approximately 30 basis points of easing for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee decision on September 17, with a split between a base case of a quarter-point cut and a smaller chance of a 50 basis point cut [1] - As of September 10, the CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 90% probability for a 25 basis point cut, about 10% for a 50 basis point cut, and close to zero for no change, with an implied cut size of roughly 27 to 29 basis points [2] - Polymarket's prediction contract shows an 81% probability for a 25 basis point cut and a 17% probability for a 50 basis point cut, suggesting a potential easing of about 28.8 basis points [3] Group 2 - Recent labor statistics indicate that the U.S. created approximately 911,000 fewer jobs through March 2025 than previously reported, marking the largest downward adjustment since 2009 [4] - Inflation metrics show core CPI at around 3.1% year-over-year in August and core PCE at 2.9% in July, indicating uneven progress in inflation [4] - The Treasury yield curve reflects an easing path at the front end, while the long end remains influenced by term premium and fiscal dynamics [5] Group 3 - A Reuters strategist poll suggests a steeper yield curve by year-end, with the two-year yield projected at around 3.40% and the ten-year yield near 4.25%, resulting in a two-tens spread of approximately 85 basis points [6] - The nominal neutral policy rate is estimated by Cleveland Fed economists to be around 3.7%, indicating that policy would remain above neutral even after a potential quarter- to half-point cut [6] Group 4 - Upcoming economic indicators, including producer prices, consumer prices, and retail sales, are expected to influence market expectations ahead of the Fed announcement [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) reported a decrease of -0.1, which slightly increased CME projections for a 50 basis point cut to 10%, while Polymarket odds decreased to 16% [7][8] Group 5 - The market's default expectation is a 25 basis point cut, targeting a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, with forecasts suggesting two to three additional cuts in 2025 and a gradual easing path into 2026 as growth slows [9]