Bitcoin recently dropped to $74,000 after failing to hold the November lows, extending a sharp pullback that has weakened short-term momentum. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading around $78,000 as the market sees a short-term relief. The 14-day Relative Strength Index has fallen into deeply oversold territory amid intense downside pressure. According to Glassnode, spot trading volume has rebounded during the move, but it is more consistent with risk repositioning than fresh demand.   ...

Economic Indicators - December pending home sales are expected to decline by -0.5% month-over-month [1] - Initial weekly unemployment claims are projected to increase by +12,000 to 210,000 [1] - Q3 GDP is anticipated to remain unchanged at +4.3% quarter-over-quarter annualized [1] - November personal spending is expected to rise by +0.5% month-over-month, while personal income is expected to increase by +0.4% month-over-month [1] - The November core PCE price index is forecasted to rise by +0.2% month-over-month and +2.8% year-over-year [1] - January S&P US manufacturing PMI is expected to increase by +0.2 to 52.0 [1] - The final University of Michigan January US consumer sentiment index is expected to remain unchanged at 54.0 [1] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index is down -1.29%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is down -1.22%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down -1.41% [5] - Overseas stock markets are also lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -1.17%, China's Shanghai Composite down -0.01%, and Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 down -1.11% [8] Earnings Reports - Q4 earnings season has begun positively, with 88% of the 33 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations [6] - S&P earnings growth is expected to increase by +8.4% in Q4, while excluding the Magnificent Seven technology stocks, growth is expected to be +4.6% [6] Commodity and Sector Movements - US natural gas-producing stocks are surging as natural gas prices have increased by more than +25% to a 3-week high [2][16] - Gold and silver mining stocks are climbing as gold and silver prices reach all-time highs, with companies like Hecla Mining and Coeur Mining up more than +4% [2][15] - The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are declining, with Nvidia down more than -3% and other major players like Amazon and Tesla down more than -2% [13] Bond Market - Rising bond yields are impacting stocks, with the 10-year T-note yield reaching a 4.75-month high of 4.31% [3] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has risen to a 27-year high of 2.359% due to fiscal concerns [3][9] - The 10-year T-note yield is up by +6.2 basis points to 4.285% [9] Company-Specific News - 3M Co. is down more than -5% after forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS below consensus [17] - RAPT Therapeutics is up more than +62% after GSK Plc agreed to acquire the company for approximately $2.2 billion [18] - Micron Technology is up more than +4% after a price target increase by Stifel [18] - Intel is up more than +2% following an upgrade by Seaport Global Securities [19] - Netflix is up more than +1% after reaching an agreement to buy Warner Bros. Discovery's studio and streaming business [20]

Market Reaction to Tariff Dispute - Bitcoin experienced a decline, slipping toward $92,000, with a drop of approximately -2.8% on January 20, trading near $92,759 after hitting an intraday low of $92,245 [1][2] - The decline in Bitcoin's value was attributed to a risk-off sentiment in the market, influenced by a potential US-Europe trade conflict related to Greenland [1][2] Tariff Threat Details - US President Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on several European countries unless the US is allowed to purchase Greenland, which unsettled investors [2][3] - A 10% tariff is set to begin on February 1, with the rate increasing to 25% by June 1 if no agreement is reached regarding Greenland [3] Broader Market Impact - The tariff threat led to a sell-off in European markets, while gold and silver prices increased as traders prepared for possible retaliation from Europe [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the tariff move could trigger a "spiral of escalation," potentially leading to broader financial market stress [4] Bitcoin Trading Volume and Liquidations - Bitcoin's spot trading volume was approximately $6.58 billion, with futures volume around $62.4 billion, indicating significant trading activity despite the market's risk-off tone [4] - There were about $235.7 million in Bitcoin futures liquidations during the same period, with open interest at approximately $61.28 billion [4] Price Trends and Predictions - Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing after a correction from its peak above $120,000 in 2025, with recent price action showing higher lows forming around the $85,000 to $88,000 range [5][6] - Resistance levels have been identified near $95,000 to $97,000, suggesting potential consolidation in the near term [6]

Wall Street was back in risk-off mode as investors piled into energy and consumer staples.The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite sank 1.7%. The Dow was down 263 points, or 0.5%. A majority of stocks in the S&P were actually trading higher.The last time the S&P 500 fell more than 1% on a day that it had positive breadth was Dec. 17, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is beating the standard S&P 500 by 1.12 percentage points, which is its largest outperformance since ...

Group 1 - Wall Street is adopting a risk-off approach ahead of the upcoming December jobs report, indicating cautious sentiment among investors [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 232 points, or 0.5%, while the S&P 500 remained flat and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.6% [1] - The Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF, which tracks the most volatile stocks in the S&P 500, fell by 0.7%, contrasting with a 1.3% rise in the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a decline, erasing previous gains from the Santa Claus rally, primarily driven by selling in precious metals and technology stocks [1] Market Performance - The Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.5% - The S&P 500 fell by 0.4% - The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 260 points, equivalent to a 0.5% decline [1] Investor Sentiment - Wall Street exhibited a risk-off sentiment, with low volatility exchange-traded funds outperforming the broader market [1] Bond Market - Bond prices rallied, resulting in lower yields [1]

Copper fell as broader markets shifted to a risk-off tone, with stocks dropping on concern over technology valuations https://t.co/aG5UOVtROB ...

Market Analysis - Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq is a key factor, but Bitcoin's underperformance relative to the Nasdaq indicates a potential mispricing [1] - The market experienced a significant crash, with Bitcoin correcting from $115 thousand to $80 thousand in two weeks [1] - "Beta" assets (high-volatility, tech stocks) have recovered substantially, signaling a "risk-on" appetite in the market [2][3] - A divergence exists between Beta assets and Bitcoin ($BTC), suggesting Bitcoin may soon follow the upward trend of Beta assets [3] - The analysis suggests Bitcoin is likely to rebound to $110-115 thousand in the coming weeks or months, reversing its recent losses [3] Investment Strategy - The report favors charts with direct relevance to Bitcoin's price over time-based assumptions like the 4-year cycle [4] - The recent correction in Bitcoin's price is viewed as potentially "dubious," implying a buying opportunity [3] Risk Assessment - The market crash saw a decline in assets characterized by "Pure Vol vs Pure Profitability or Beta vs Quality" [2] - "Quality" assets are defined as risk-off, profitable, and stable companies, contrasting with high-volatility "Beta" assets [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Equity Markets Performance**: In November, equity markets were generally flat, with NASDAQ declining by 1.5%, MSCI China down 2.4%, and MSCI EM down 2.5%. In contrast, Topix increased by 1.4% [2][12] - **Sector Performance**: Technology was the worst-performing sector, down 4.9%, while healthcare led with a gain of 7.7% [2][12] - **Commodities**: Silver was a standout performer, increasing by 17.2% [2][30] Market Sentiment - **Risk Sentiment**: The market exhibited a risk-off sentiment, indicated by a spike in the VIX and a further decline in the AAII Bulls-Bears indicator, which moved deeper into fear territory [4][12] Technicals and Issuance - **Debt Market Issuance**: There was a 2% decrease in DM IG gross issuance compared to the 2024 run rate, marking the first decline in six months. Flows into US IG and MBS funds outpaced those into HY funds [3][12] Currency Performance - **G10 Currencies**: The JPY was the worst-performing G10 currency, depreciating by 1.4% against the USD [2][12] Fixed Income Market Insights - **US Treasury Curve**: The US Treasury curve experienced a bull-steepening, with the UST 10Y yielding 4.01% [22][28] - **Credit Spreads**: Investment Grade (IG) spreads widened while High Yield (HY) spreads tightened, indicating a shift in credit market dynamics [3][28] Key Data Points - **Market Indicators**: The Market Sentiment Indicator stood at 16.4, indicating a neutral sentiment [12] - **Equity Returns**: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 Index showed a slight recovery towards the end of the month after initial declines [7][12] Additional Insights - **Global Economic Context**: The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the global economy, including inflationary pressures and interest rate adjustments by central banks [12][22] - **Valuation Metrics**: The forward P/E ratios for various sectors indicate a mixed outlook, with technology and healthcare showing higher valuations compared to traditional sectors like energy and financials [26][27] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on market performance, sentiment, technicals, and key economic indicators.

European stocks were set to extend declines in a risk-off week marked by concerns about elevated technology valuations and an uncertain monetary policy path in the US https://t.co/PxXLDxlyps ...