I primarily invest in turnarounds in natural resource industries, where I have a typical holding period of 2-4 years. Focusing on value offers good downside protection and can still provide great upside participation. The portfolio has over the last 7 years had a compounded annual growth rate of 36% .If you like this article and are interested in more frequent analysis of my holding companies, real-time notifications on portfolio changes, together with macro and industry analysis. I would encourage you to h ...

Group 1 - The company primarily invests in turnarounds within the natural resource industries, with a typical holding period of 2-4 years, focusing on value for downside protection and upside participation [1][2] - The portfolio has achieved a compounded annual growth rate of 36% over the last 7 years, indicating strong performance in the investment strategy [1] - Yellow Cake (YLLXF) is identified as a passive investment company that owns uranium, listed in the UK with an OTC listing in the United States, focusing on quality characteristics and depressed valuations [2] Group 2 - The investment strategy emphasizes participation in the upside of natural resource investing while mitigating extreme drawdowns, which are common in this sector [2] - The current focus on natural resource industries is driven by favorable monetary and fiscal policies, underinvestment, and attractive valuations [2]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is undergoing a turnaround effort, showing early signs of improvement, making it an attractive investment opportunity despite its current challenges [1][8]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - UPS is currently viewed negatively by investors, with shares down over 50% from their peak in early 2022 due to a return to normal demand after the pandemic [2][10]. - The company has established a robust infrastructure for package delivery, which is difficult to replicate, indicating long-term value despite current market pessimism [4][5]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - UPS's price-to-sales ratio is approximately 0.9x, significantly lower than its five-year average of 1.4x, suggesting the stock is undervalued [6]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is just under 15x, compared to a longer-term average of around 18x, further indicating a potential buying opportunity [6]. - The price-to-book value ratio stands at 5.1x, well below its five-year average of 8.5x, reinforcing the notion of attractive pricing [6][7]. Group 3: Operational Improvements - UPS management has recognized inefficiencies and is implementing a comprehensive overhaul, including exiting unprofitable business lines and investing in technology [10][11]. - Early results show positive trends, with revenue per piece in the U.S. market increasing by 5.5% in Q2 2025 and 9.8% in Q3 2025, indicating that management's efforts are beginning to yield results [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - UPS's stock price experienced significant fluctuations during and after the pandemic, raising questions about its future performance and potential recovery [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - UPS's stock rose during the pandemic due to increased demand for e-commerce delivery services but has since fallen back to pre-pandemic levels [1][4]. - The stock's journey reflects a full cycle from bull to bear, with a notable price advance in 2020 and 2021 followed by a crash in 2022 [2][4]. Group 2: Business Adjustments - In response to changing market conditions post-pandemic, UPS has initiated a business overhaul, including downsizing and adopting more technology [5][6]. - The company has also faced increased costs due to a new union contract while strategically reducing its low-margin business with Amazon, its largest customer [5][7]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - The near-term outlook for UPS is expected to be challenging due to the costs associated with restructuring, although these changes may yield long-term benefits [6][8]. - The focus on more profitable business segments may lead to improved margins but could also result in reduced overall revenue [7][8]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - UPS presents a high-yield turnaround opportunity with a 7.5% dividend yield, but the high payout ratio of over 90% raises concerns for dividend investors [9]. - The company is likely to attract aggressive investors who are willing to adopt a long-term perspective rather than those seeking short-term gains [9].

Group 1 - Alamos Gold is identified as a high-quality mid-cap gold mining company primarily operating in Canada, with some production in Mexico's Mulatos District [1] - The company focuses on value investments in the natural resource sector, which provides downside protection while allowing for significant upside potential [2] - Over the past six years, the portfolio associated with the company has achieved a compounded annual growth rate of 29% [2]