ab 25 March 2026 Global Research Uranium Expert Call Takeaways & Sector Debates We hosted Clark Beyer, the former Chairman at the World Nuclear Fuel Market, Director at the World Nuclear Association and Managing Director at Rio Tinto Uranium (+10yrs). In this report, we highlight some key debates and discussion points. Replay link: here. Endless upcycle hype vs best upcycle proposition in ~40yrs The call was 'balanced optimism/realism' in our view. While the expert thinks there's never been a better time fo ...

Core Insights - Centrus Energy (LEU) and NexGen Energy (NXE) are positioned to significantly contribute to the global nuclear energy supply chain, with LEU focusing on uranium enrichment and NXE on uranium mining [1][3]. Company Overview - Centrus Energy, based in Bethesda, MD, has a market capitalization of $3.8 billion and supplies nuclear fuel components internationally [2]. - NexGen Energy, located in Vancouver, Canada, is valued at $7.75 billion and is developing the Rook I Project, which aims to be the largest low-cost uranium mine globally [2]. Industry Context - Uranium has been included in the U.S. Geological Survey's Final 2025 Critical Minerals List, emphasizing its importance for U.S. energy security and national defense [3]. - The long-term outlook for uranium is positive due to rising electricity demand and the global shift towards clean energy [3]. Centrus Energy Analysis - Centrus Energy's total revenues for 2025 were $448.7 million, a 2% increase from the previous year, with a revenue backlog of $3.8 billion and a cash balance of $2 billion [5]. - The company plans to expand its uranium enrichment plant in Piketon, OH, with a capital deployment of $350-$500 million in 2026 [6]. - Centrus Energy is the only licensed producer of High-Assay, Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) in the Western world, targeting 12 metric tons of HALEU production per year post-2030 [8]. NexGen Energy Analysis - NexGen Energy's Rook I project is expected to produce up to 30 million pounds of high-grade uranium annually, representing over 20% of the current global uranium supply [11]. - The company has secured uranium sales contracts with major U.S. utilities, committing to supply 1 million pounds annually from 2029 to 2033 [14]. - In 2025, NexGen reported a loss of 53 cents per share, reflecting ongoing operational costs as it remains in the development phase [15]. Earnings Estimates Comparison - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Centrus Energy's 2026 earnings is $3.27 per share, indicating a decline of 16.2% year-over-year [17]. - For NexGen Energy, the 2026 estimate is a loss of 14 cents per share, an improvement from the previous year's loss [17]. Stock Performance - Centrus Energy shares have increased by 176.2% over the past year, while NexGen Energy shares have risen by 137.3% [21]. - Centrus Energy is trading at a forward price-to-book multiple of 4.97X, compared to NexGen Energy's 5.9X [23]. Investment Outlook - Both companies currently hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), making it challenging to choose between them [24]. - Centrus Energy is better positioned in the near to medium term due to its unique status as the only licensed HALEU producer in the U.S. and its substantial backlog [25].

Group 1: Company Overview - Cameco Corporation (NYSE:CCJ) is one of the world's largest uranium suppliers, with operations supported by high-grade reserves and low-cost production [4] - The company maintains exposure across the nuclear fuel cycle through strategic investments, including stakes in Westinghouse Electric Company and Global Laser Enrichment [4] Group 2: Market Outlook - The nuclear energy market has solid long-term fundamentals, as presented by Cameco at the 47th Annual Raymond James Institutional Investor Conference [1] - There is a tightening supply-demand balance in the uranium market, with 3.1 billion pounds of uranium demand expected to remain uncontracted through 2045, indicating substantial supply gaps [2] Group 3: Production and Financial Potential - The MacArthur River mine is projected to produce between 14.5 to 16 million pounds of uranium this year, with potential for increased production from critical assets [3] - Cameco's stake in Westinghouse Electric Company could generate between $400 to $600 million in EBITDA per reactor from new build projects [3]

Core Viewpoint - NexGen Energy Ltd. is positioned as a leading investment opportunity in the nuclear energy sector over the next five years, particularly due to the recent approvals for its Rook I Uranium Project [1][2]. Group 1: Project Approvals and Timeline - The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission approved the environmental assessment for the Rook I Uranium Project, granting the Licence to Prepare Site and Construct, which is the final federal approval needed [1]. - The approval was received just 14 business days after the conclusion of the final two-part commission hearing on February 12, 2026 [1]. - Saskatchewan's provincial environmental assessment approval was obtained in November 2023, along with other necessary provincial authorizations [1]. Group 2: Construction and Production Capacity - Full construction of the Rook I project is set to begin in summer 2026, with an expected build time of four years [2]. - Once operational, the Rook I project is capable of producing up to 30 million pounds of uranium annually [2]. Group 3: Company Overview - NexGen Energy Ltd. is a Canadian uranium developer focused on the Rook I Project in Saskatchewan, which is a 100%-owned development-stage asset that hosts the Arrow deposit [3]. - The company is listed on multiple exchanges, including NYSE under NXE, TSX under NXE, and ASX under NXG [3].

Core Viewpoint - Deep Yellow Limited is identified as a leading investment opportunity in the nuclear energy sector over the next five years, particularly focusing on its uranium projects in Namibia and Australia [1]. Financial Performance - For the half-year period ending December 31, 2025, Deep Yellow reported a consolidated loss from continuing operations after tax of $7.78 million, an increase from a loss of $2.47 million in the same period the previous year [2]. - Total expenses rose to $11.79 million from $8.77 million year-over-year [2]. - Cash and at-call deposits decreased to $187.15 million from $217.37 million as of June 30, 2025 [2]. - Capitalized mineral exploration and evaluation expenditure increased to $334.83 million, while property, plant, and equipment rose to $125.48 million, with $119.30 million related to the Tumas Project [2]. Project Development - The Tumas Project remains the primary focus for development, with detailed engineering over 60% complete, bulk earthworks approximately 24% complete, and over 70% of major process plant equipment tendered by December 31, 2025 [3]. - An independent technical expert conducted due diligence on the Tumas Project in December 2025 and reported no material issues [3]. - At the Mulga Rock Project, the company is working on a revised Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS), expected to be completed in Q3 CY2026 [3]. Company Overview - Deep Yellow Limited is a uranium-focused exploration and development company with projects located in Namibia and Australia, including the Tumas Project, Mulga Rock Project, and Alligator River Project [4].

Group 1: Financial Performance - enCore Energy Corp. reported a significant increase in uranium extraction, with 699,807 pounds of U3O8 produced in 2025, representing a 242% increase from 2024 [1] - The average selling price for uranium was $65.89 per pound, while the weighted average cost was $51.09 per pound [1] - The net loss per share improved to $(0.30) from $(0.34) the previous year, indicating better financial health [1] Group 2: Operational Developments - The company is focused on enhancing wellfield efficiency in South Texas, which has contributed to improved output [1] - Management reported that February 2026 warrant exercises generated approximately $18.1 million in cash, earmarked for infrastructure and wellfield development in South Texas [2] - Additional inventory was purchased in late 2025 to fulfill 2026 delivery commitments due to extended permitting timelines at the Upper Spring Creek satellite facility [2] Group 3: Company Overview - enCore Energy Corp. is a U.S.-focused uranium company utilizing in-situ recovery extraction and operates multiple central processing plants [3] - The company has project interests in South Texas, South Dakota, and Wyoming, positioning itself strategically within the uranium sector [3]

Core Insights - Centrus Energy (LEU) reported total revenues of $448.7 million in 2025, reflecting a modest 2% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by the Technical Solutions segment, which offset weaker results in the Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) segment [1][10] Revenue Breakdown - The Low-Enriched Uranium segment generated revenues of $346 million in 2025, accounting for approximately 77% of total revenues, but experienced a 1% decline year-over-year. Uranium revenues specifically fell 54% to $47.5 million, down from $103.1 million in 2024, due to lower sales volumes [2] - Separative Work Units (SWU) revenues increased by 21% to $298.7 million, driven by a 23% rise in volumes sold, despite a slight 1% decline in average realized prices [3][10] - The Technical Solutions segment saw an 11% increase in revenues to $102.5 million, supported by contributions from the HALEU Operation Contract, indicating a strategic focus on advanced nuclear fuel capabilities [3] Future Outlook - Centrus Energy anticipates 2026 revenues to be between $425 million and $475 million, suggesting relatively flat performance compared to 2025. The company ended 2025 with a robust revenue backlog of $3.8 billion, with the Low-Enriched Uranium segment accounting for roughly $2.9 billion of this backlog, providing significant long-term visibility [4] Peer Comparison - Cameco Corporation (CCJ) reported a revenue increase of 11% to CAD 3.48 billion ($2.54 billion) in 2025, driven by improved results in both uranium and fuel services segments. Despite a slight decline in uranium sales volumes, a 9% increase in average realized prices helped lift uranium segment revenues by 7% [5] - Energy Fuels (UUUU) experienced a 16% decline in revenues to $65.9 million for 2025, primarily due to a 60% drop in Heavy Mineral Sands, although uranium revenues increased by 31% to $50.1 million [7][8] Valuation and Estimates - Centrus Energy shares have declined by 20.2% over the past three months, contrasting with the industry's growth of 11.2% [9] - The company is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 8.82X, significantly higher than the industry's 4.21X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Centrus Energy's 2026 earnings is $3.27 per share, indicating a 16.15% year-over-year decline, with a slight growth forecast for 2027 at $3.38 per share [12]

Core Viewpoint - Alligator Energy Ltd has restructured its board, appointing Dr. Andrea Marsland-Smith as managing director while long-serving non-executive director Peter McIntyre prepares for retirement, aiming to enhance governance and operational efficiency as the company advances its uranium projects [1][2]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Dr. Andrea Marsland-Smith has been appointed as managing director, in addition to her role as CEO, reflecting her leadership in achieving key milestones [1][2]. - The board believes that the combined role of CEO and managing director will streamline governance and improve operational efficiency as Alligator progresses its strategy [2]. Group 2: Peter McIntyre's Transition - Peter McIntyre intends to step down as a non-executive director but will remain until the completion of the field recovery trial at the Samphire Uranium Project, which is considered a significant milestone for the company [4]. - McIntyre has served on the board for over 12 years and has been a key contributor, supporting multiple capital raises during Alligator's formative years [5][6].

Core Insights - Energy Fuels (UUUU) has experienced a significant stock increase of 342.3% over the past year, but it is currently trading at a premium compared to the industry average [1] - The company is focusing on a 2026 uranium margin expansion strategy, which includes increasing throughput and reducing unit costs at its White Mesa facility, while also developing a rare earth platform [1] - The stock's high valuation necessitates strong performance in the upcoming quarters to justify its premium pricing [1] Valuation Analysis - Energy Fuels trades at 27.99x forward 12-month sales per share, which is considerably higher than its peers, with the Zacks sub-industry at 4.46x, the Basic Materials sector at 1.91x, and the S&P 500 at 4.97x [2] - The target price of $21 reflects a 30.42x forward 12-month sales framework, indicating that the valuation is contingent on the company's ability to deliver on its operational plans [4] Operating Leverage and Growth Drivers - The primary bull case for Energy Fuels centers on increasing volume and reducing costs, with the uranium mill output reaching approximately 250,000 pounds per month in Q4 2025, peaking at 350,000 pounds in December [5] - Finished inventory costs were around $43 per pound at the end of 2025, with expectations to decrease to the low $30s in 2026, which would enhance gross margins projected to exceed 50% [6] Contracting and Revenue Visibility - Energy Fuels plans to sell between 1.5 to 2 million pounds of uranium in 2026 through a combination of existing contracts and spot transactions, with contracted deliveries estimated at 620,000 to 880,000 pounds [9] - The company held 810,000 pounds of finished uranium and 2.18 million pounds of total inventory at the end of 2025, which is expected to meet contract requirements through 2026 [10] Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Fuels' revenues in 2026 is $147.27 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 123.4%, with a further growth estimate of 53% for 2027 [12] Risks and Execution Challenges - The gross margin framework for 2026 relies on the assumption of strengthening uranium prices and declining inventory costs; any adverse movement in these factors could compress margins [14] - The sales mix may impact near-term performance, as early 2026 deliveries will include lower-priced legacy contracts, potentially leading to lower realizations initially [15] - Management's flexibility in inventory management and sales timing can influence revenue recognition, particularly in fluctuating market conditions [16]

Core Insights - Energy Fuels (UUUU) is positioned for improved uranium unit economics by 2026, driven by higher mill utilization, better cost absorption, and a larger share of lower-cost feed [1][9] - Operational progress may not immediately translate to reported revenue due to factors like contract mix and inventory decisions [1][11] Group 1: Operational Performance - The White Mesa Mill is crucial for the company's margin, achieving an output of approximately 250,000 pounds per month in Q4 2025, peaking at 350,000 pounds in December [2] - Weighted average finished inventory costs were around $43 per pound at the end of 2025, expected to decrease to the low $30s in 2026 as processing scales and feed quality improves [3][9] Group 2: Volume and Sales Projections - Management anticipates mining 2–2.5 million pounds of uranium and processing 1.5–2.5 million pounds in 2026, with uranium sales projected at 1.5–2 million pounds [4] - Energy Fuels held 810,000 pounds of finished uranium and 2.18 million pounds of total finished and contained inventory at year-end 2025, providing flexibility for opportunistic sales [5] Group 3: Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Fuels' revenues in 2026 is $147.27 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 123.4% [6] - First-quarter 2026 revenue realizations are expected to be lower due to legacy contracts from 2022, with newer contracts weighted towards the latter half of the year [11] Group 4: Contractual Commitments - Energy Fuels has six long-term contracts with U.S. utilities for deliveries from 2026 to 2032, covering 3.21 million pounds of committed base sales, with potential total deliveries ranging from 3.71 to 5.29 million pounds [10]