Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy experienced slower-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter, with an annual growth rate of 1.4% compared to expectations of 3% [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth Data - The U.S. economy's GDP growth for the fourth quarter was reported at an annual rate of 1.4%, covering the period from October to December [1]. - This growth rate is significantly lower than the 4.4% GDP growth recorded in the third quarter [2]. - Economists had anticipated a growth rate of 3% for the fourth quarter, indicating a notable discrepancy between expectations and actual performance [2].

8 January 2026 | 8:18PM SGT Commodities Research BASE METALS ANALYST Copper: Lifting H1 2026 Price Forecast, But Post-US Tariff Correction Looms Eoin Dinsmore +65-6889-2401 | eoin.dinsmore@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Aurelia Waltham +44(20)7051-2547 | aurelia.waltham@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Lavinia Forcellese +44(20)7774-9243 | lavinia.forcellese@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Samantha Dart +1(212)357-9428 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced modest increases on Wednesday, continuing the upward trend from the previous session, driven by strong U.S. economic growth and concerns over potential supply disruptions from Venezuela and Russia [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - Robust U.S. economic growth is contributing to the rise in oil prices, indicating a strong demand for energy resources [1] Group 2: Supply Risks - The risk of supply disruptions from Venezuela and Russia is a significant factor influencing the oil market, adding upward pressure on prices [1]

Market Overview - Bitcoin is experiencing a downturn with no anticipated recovery until the US Federal Reserve stabilizes the economy [1][2] - The current price of Bitcoin is approximately $89,000, which is 30% lower than its all-time high in October [2] Economic Factors - The US government shutdown has delayed crucial inflation data, leading to uncertainty in the Fed's monetary policy [1][4] - The Fed's path remains unclear until several months of consistent inflation data are available, impacting Bitcoin's performance as a risk asset [2] Investor Behavior - There has been a significant withdrawal from Bitcoin investments, with nearly $500 million pulled from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last week [5] - Investors are closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators as they approach the end of 2025 [5] Economic Growth Expectations - Upcoming US GDP figures are expected to show a 3.5% annualized growth for the third quarter, following a strong 3.8% in the second quarter [6] - A robust growth figure could complicate expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Fed, which typically encourage investment in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the United States and its impact on various asset classes, including equities, fixed income, and commodities, particularly gold. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on US Growth** - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is expected to have a minimal impact on US growth, with a projected fiscal impulse of only 0.4% to real GDP in 2026 and 0.2% in 2027. After 2029, it is anticipated to become a drag on growth due to front-loaded fiscal deficits [13][18][22] 2. **Performance of US Risky Assets Amid Tepid Growth** - Despite expectations of slow growth in the US, risky assets such as equities may perform well. Historical data suggests that US equity fundamentals can diverge from nominal GDP, and a weaker dollar could provide additional support [18][22] 3. **Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the US Dollar** - FDI inflows from recent trade deals are not expected to significantly strengthen the US Dollar. Historically, FDI has contributed little to the US financial account, typically ranging between -1% and +1% of GDP. Portfolio flows are the primary driver of USD movements [3][22][24] 4. **China's Economic Growth Outlook** - Despite a strong 2Q GDP report from China, the outlook for the second half of the year remains cautious. Factors such as weaker exports, fading fiscal support, and persistent deflation are expected to hinder growth [26][27] 5. **Gold Price Outlook** - Gold is expected to continue rallying due to macroeconomic tailwinds and favorable technicals. A weaker dollar and robust physical demand, including significant purchases by central banks, are likely to support gold prices [4][28][29] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The fiscal multipliers associated with the OBBBA are low due to the nature of its policies, with expansionary measures expiring by 2029 and contractionary policies having high multipliers [13][16] - The correlation between earnings growth and nominal GDP growth can show persistent deviations, indicating that equities may perform better than expected even in a slow growth environment [18][20] - The anticipated slowdown in China's growth is compounded by tariff risks and limited fiscal space, which could further impact global trade dynamics [26][27] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic environment and its implications for various asset classes.