8 January 2026 | 8:18PM SGT Commodities Research BASE METALS ANALYST Copper: Lifting H1 2026 Price Forecast, But Post-US Tariff Correction Looms Eoin Dinsmore +65-6889-2401 | eoin.dinsmore@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Aurelia Waltham +44(20)7051-2547 | aurelia.waltham@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Lavinia Forcellese +44(20)7774-9243 | lavinia.forcellese@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Samantha Dart +1(212)357-9428 | ...

Oil prices posted modest rises on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session, supported by robust U.S. economic growth and the risk of supply disruptions from Venezuela and Russia. ...

Bitcoin is limping into Christmas week with no Santa rally in sight. And Gabriel Selby, head of research at CF Benchmark, says it’s unlikely that the price will recover from its current downtrend until the US Federal Reserve gets a better grip on the economy. With the record US government shutdown delaying inflation data, the central bank will tread lightly and that means buyers are unlikely to tap into the crypto and push up the price, Selby wrote in an investor note shared with DL News. “Until we get ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the United States and its impact on various asset classes, including equities, fixed income, and commodities, particularly gold. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on US Growth** - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is expected to have a minimal impact on US growth, with a projected fiscal impulse of only 0.4% to real GDP in 2026 and 0.2% in 2027. After 2029, it is anticipated to become a drag on growth due to front-loaded fiscal deficits [13][18][22] 2. **Performance of US Risky Assets Amid Tepid Growth** - Despite expectations of slow growth in the US, risky assets such as equities may perform well. Historical data suggests that US equity fundamentals can diverge from nominal GDP, and a weaker dollar could provide additional support [18][22] 3. **Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the US Dollar** - FDI inflows from recent trade deals are not expected to significantly strengthen the US Dollar. Historically, FDI has contributed little to the US financial account, typically ranging between -1% and +1% of GDP. Portfolio flows are the primary driver of USD movements [3][22][24] 4. **China's Economic Growth Outlook** - Despite a strong 2Q GDP report from China, the outlook for the second half of the year remains cautious. Factors such as weaker exports, fading fiscal support, and persistent deflation are expected to hinder growth [26][27] 5. **Gold Price Outlook** - Gold is expected to continue rallying due to macroeconomic tailwinds and favorable technicals. A weaker dollar and robust physical demand, including significant purchases by central banks, are likely to support gold prices [4][28][29] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The fiscal multipliers associated with the OBBBA are low due to the nature of its policies, with expansionary measures expiring by 2029 and contractionary policies having high multipliers [13][16] - The correlation between earnings growth and nominal GDP growth can show persistent deviations, indicating that equities may perform better than expected even in a slow growth environment [18][20] - The anticipated slowdown in China's growth is compounded by tariff risks and limited fiscal space, which could further impact global trade dynamics [26][27] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic environment and its implications for various asset classes.