Core Viewpoint - The world economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace in 2026, supported by looser monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, and momentum from the AI sector, but faces downside risks due to global uncertainties [1][5]. Economic Growth Projections - Global growth in 2025 was better than expected despite trade disruptions and policy uncertainty, with resilience anticipated to continue into 2026 [2] - The ACCA forecasts a 3% increase in world GDP for 2026, aligning with the previous year's performance, but emphasizes that risks are skewed to the downside [2] Key Areas of Focus - The report identifies three pivotal areas for the upcoming year: developments in AI, movements in advanced economy bond markets, and changes in global trade dynamics [3] - Early productivity gains from AI investments may alleviate concerns about an AI bubble, but diminishing confidence could lead to market corrections [3] Risks and Challenges - A sharp rise in government bond yields could negatively impact economies by increasing debt-servicing costs, driven by fears regarding debt sustainability and political instability [4] - The report highlights the need to monitor the effects of higher US tariffs and warns of the potential for renewed trade tensions [4]

Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum said she will hold a short in-person meeting with Donald Trump this week in Washington, as they continue to negotiate over US tariffs on her nation’s goods. https://t.co/gpK72kidYR ...

India’s rupee may weaken further, according to analysts, who are watching the central bank’s willingness to defend a currency buffeted by the harshest US tariffs in Asia https://t.co/27UubOY4GK ...

Core Viewpoint - Toyota Motor is anticipated to experience a decline in operating profit for the second consecutive quarter due to U.S. tariffs and supply-chain risks, despite strong global sales of hybrid vehicles [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company is expected to report a decrease in quarterly operating profit, marking the second consecutive decline [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - U.S. tariffs are impacting the company's operations negatively [1] - Supply-chain risks are also contributing to the operational challenges faced by the company [1] Group 3: Product Performance - Despite the challenges, there is robust global demand for hybrid vehicles, which remains a positive aspect for the company [1]

Core Insights - GSK raised its 2025 sales and earnings forecasts due to strong growth in its specialty HIV and cancer medicines, leading to a significant increase in share price [1][2] - Despite a decline in U.S. sales of the shingles vaccine Shingrix, GSK's shares have increased by nearly 4% this year, contributing to a total gain of around 25% [1] Sales Performance - Overall vaccine sales reached £2.68 billion in the quarter ending September 30, surpassing analyst expectations of £2.55 billion [3] - Sales outside the U.S. were a key driver of growth, while U.S. sales of Shingrix fell by 15% [3][4] - GSK's influenza vaccine sales also declined in the U.S. due to increased competition [4] Future Outlook - GSK's CEO transition to Luke Miels is anticipated to bring new strategies to navigate U.S. tariffs and offset revenue declines from expiring patents [2][5] - The company aims for annual revenue exceeding £40 billion ($54 billion) by 2031, with current estimates around £34 billion [5] - GSK expects annual revenue growth of 6% to 7% and core earnings per share growth of 10% to 12%, an increase from previous forecasts of 3% to 5% revenue growth and 6% to 8% earnings growth [5][6] Financial Performance - GSK reported core earnings per share of 55 pence on sales of £8.55 billion for the quarter, exceeding analyst expectations of 47.1 pence on £8.24 billion [6] - Revenue in the U.S. business grew by 7% at constant exchange rates, totaling £4.55 billion [6]

Core Insights - Illinois Tool Works Inc. reported mixed third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with revenue of $4.06 billion, a 2.3% year-over-year increase, but below the expected $4.08 billion [1] - The company narrowed its full-year 2025 GAAP EPS guidance to $10.40-$10.50, aligning with consensus, and projected full-year sales between $16.057 billion and $16.375 billion [2] - The company achieved an EPS of $2.81, a 6% year-over-year growth excluding divestiture gains, and recorded an operating margin of 27.4% alongside a 15% increase in free cash flow [3] Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 2.3% year-over-year to $4.06 billion, missing analyst expectations [1] - Organic revenue growth was reported at 1% year-over-year for the quarter [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) were $2.81, compared to $3.91 a year ago, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.71 [1] Guidance and Projections - Full-year 2025 GAAP EPS guidance was tightened to $10.40-$10.50 from a previous range of $10.35-$10.55 [2] - Projected full-year sales for 2025 are between $16.057 billion and $16.375 billion, slightly below the consensus of $16.076 billion [2] Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, Illinois Tool Works shares rose by 1.1% to $248.45 [4] - Analysts adjusted their price targets, with a consensus rating of "Hold" and a consensus price target of $253.29 [5] Analyst Ratings - Wells Fargo maintained an Underweight rating and lowered the price target from $250 to $245 [7] - Truist Securities maintained a Hold rating and reduced the price target from $298 to $275 [7] - Barclays also maintained an Underweight rating, raising the price target from $243 to $244 [7]

Economic Outlook - Europe将进行严格的经济健康检查，以评估美国关税对增长和通货膨胀的影响 [1] - 政策制定者将召开会议以设定利率 [1]

President Trump said he's ending "all trade negotiations" with Canada because of recent television ads protesting US tariffs. https://t.co/pYgKNSG98g ...

Currency & Trade - Thailand's manufacturers are requesting the central bank to weaken the Baht [1] - The strong Baht is hurting businesses already impacted by US tariffs [1]

Core Insights - Aston Martin has warned of deepening losses this year due to weaker-than-expected demand in North America and Asia-Pacific, compounded by the impact of US tariffs [1][3] - The company no longer anticipates meeting its previous wholesale guidance for 2025 following disappointing third-quarter performance and revised fourth-quarter expectations [2] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBIT for 2025 is now forecasted to be a loss of £-110 million (-$148 million), below market consensus, due to reduced volumes and pressure on gross margins [4] - Capital expenditure for 2025 is expected to be around £375 million, down from an earlier estimate of £400 million, while SG&A is projected to decline by approximately 10% from 2024's £313 million [4] Sales and Deliveries - Wholesale deliveries in Q3 2025 were approximately 1,430 units, below prior guidance and down from 1,641 units in Q3 2024, attributed to softer demand in North America and APAC [6] - Retail volumes in the quarter were consistent with wholesales, but financial performance was negatively impacted by a less favorable mix due to fewer special deliveries [6] Future Outlook - The company does not expect to generate positive free cash flow in the second half of 2025, although it anticipates sequential improvement in Q4 [5] - Aston Martin expects a material improvement in profitability and free cash flow in 2026, supported by consistent Valhalla deliveries and ongoing cost reduction measures [5] Product Development - The company has continued to roll out new core derivatives, with deliveries of the Vanquish Volante beginning in Q3, and expects to start delivering the Vantage S and DBX S in Q4 [7] - Aston Martin completed the sale of shares in AMR GP during Q3, ending the period with total liquidity of approximately £250 million [8]