The gyrations of South Africa’s rand and Brazil’s real illustrate the complexities traders face in evaluating the potential impact of US tariffs https://t.co/vNRX0IVhDK ...

Thailand’s longer-maturity bonds are emerging as the top pick for investors seeking shelter from the economic impact of higher US tariffs and domestic political turmoil https://t.co/yx7l4QLqIf ...

The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged Thursday as it monitors the impact of its earlier easing moves on soaring home prices and an economy threatened by higher US tariffs https://t.co/lMzLXwqdYZ ...

China’s technology giants are set to shrug off the impact of higher US tariffs as their outlook is now far more dependent on local consumer sentiment https://t.co/RKg5HOiPT3 ...

Lesotho declares state of disaster amid US tariff uncertainty https://t.co/YwxYUfoOBq ...

Global Economic Briefing July 7, 2025 04:01 AM GMT M Global Idea The Weekly Worldview: The Tariff Show Must Go On Short-term "deals" are limited in scope and leave several questions unanswered. Comprehensive trade deals that reduce trade uncertainty will take much longer to finalize, and will require clarity on ongoing investigations and legal challenges. M The headlines have already started to trickle in: Canada repeals digital services tax, Vietnam agreement secured, EU on track. These seem like the previ ...

Vietnam’s central bank stands ready to take steps to curb inflation and support growth, as it warns about the impact of higher US tariffs on the economy and its currency. https://t.co/g0VdOcmxJ6 ...

India’s southern states are using a Made in China playbook to become the next manufacturing hub amid steep US tariffs https://t.co/mID3nIrwOM ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan Japan Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Japanese corporate sector**, focusing on the findings from the **June BOJ Tankan survey** regarding business sentiment and corporate earnings forecasts. Key Points and Arguments Impact of US Tariffs - The June BOJ Tankan indicates that **US tariffs have not significantly dampened corporate sentiment**, with a business conditions diffusion index (DI) for large manufacturers remaining steady at **13 points**, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus of **10 points** [1][4] - However, corporate earnings forecasts predict a **10% drag on net profit**, particularly affecting the **manufacturing sector**, especially **automobiles** and other processing industries [1][4] Corporate Earnings Forecasts - The FY2025 net profit growth forecast for large enterprises is revised to **-5.3%**, down from **-1.3%** in the March survey, aligning with the broader TSE Prime constituents' forecast of **-5.8%** [1][4] - **Manufacturers** lowered their profit growth forecast to **-9.8%**, while **non-manufacturers** raised theirs to **-0.8%** from **-2.0%** [1][4] Sales and Capital Expenditure (Capex) - Both manufacturers and non-manufacturers have increased their sales forecasts, with capex plans revised sharply upward to **+11.5% YoY** overall for large enterprises, driven by investments in **semiconductors**, **automation**, and **power transmission/distribution** [1][5] - Capex growth for manufacturers is projected at **+14.3%**, while non-manufacturers expect **+9.9%** [5] Foreign Exchange and Inflation Outlook - The corporate forex estimate for FY2025 is set at **¥145/$**, indicating a **4% YoY strengthening of the yen**, which is expected to negatively impact EPS by approximately **2 percentage points** [5][30] - The inflation outlook has slightly decreased, with companies expecting general prices to rise by **2.4%** in one year, down from **2.5%** previously [5][31] Sector-Specific Insights - Business conditions DI worsened in sectors more exposed to US tariffs, such as **automobiles** and **machinery**, while sectors like **materials** (paper & pulp, steel, oil & coal) and **construction** showed improvement [4][5] - The market consensus appears more cautious than company outlooks in sectors like **steel**, **services**, and **paper & pulp**, while being relatively optimistic for **electric & gas utilities**, **real estate**, and **communications** [4][5] Overall Corporate Sentiment - Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, corporate earnings remain resilient, particularly in domestic non-manufacturing sectors, which aligns with the investment strategy focusing on domestic demand sectors and potential upside in **semiconductors** and **machinery** [1][5] Additional Important Information - The report highlights the **limited impact of tariffs** on business conditions, with a flat DI for manufacturers and slight deterioration for non-manufacturers, which was in line with market expectations [4][5] - The report also notes that the **FY2025 TOPIX consensus EPS** has seen downward revisions in overseas demand sectors, particularly **automobiles**, which have been lowered by **18%** over the past three months, yet still shows a modest **+3.3% YoY profit growth forecast** as of end-June [4][5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Japanese corporate sector and its outlook amidst external pressures.

Governor, when you look at some of the concerns, of course, regarding what we're going to do at the ECB, like how do you see the ECB in a good place in terms of inflation for the moment. We are in a good place, but there is no reason for complacency. There are risks that are two sided.First of all, the trade war. Tariffs for is creating risks to the upside. But even more, we see risks to the downside in a sense that our own projection is indicating that inflation is likely to be below target for 18 months.A ...