Global | Washington Strategy December 7, 2025 Data Over Vibes – A Practical Toolkit in Tracking US China Tech Rivalry 2026 will be a turning point in the US's posture with China on tech competition (here). The question for investors is how to identify areas of Chinese leadership and where current trajectory suggests China may surpass the US. Below we detail tools to aid in this. KTs: 1) ASPI's Tracker is an early indicator of future capabilities; 2) Patent data shows where & which country is innovating aggr ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **US-China Tech Rivalry**: The discussion focused on the ongoing technological competition between the US and China, particularly in the energy sector and its implications for industrialization and computing [1][2]. Core Insights - **China's Power Demand Management**: - China has successfully managed high power demand growth for approximately two decades, with installed capacity increasing about 7 times since 2005, from around 500 GW to 3,400 GW [3]. - Despite slower GDP growth, power demand has continued to grow at an annual rate of 5-7% [3]. - The expansion of coal capacity has been primarily for peaking purposes, while renewable energy sources have seen aggressive build-outs, with over 600 GW of solar and 200 GW of wind capacity added [3]. - **US Power Capacity Growth**: - The US has experienced significantly slower capacity growth, with only a 40% increase over the past 20 years [4]. - Recent growth has been linked to industrial policy and new manufacturing capacity, but challenges such as permitting delays and supply bottlenecks could hinder future growth [4]. - **Electrification and Renewable Energy**: - The increasing share of renewables in the power mix and rising electrification are expected to create unique opportunities in energy storage systems (ESS) [4]. - Global ESS installations are forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27% from 2025 to 2030, with China expected to account for about 50% of all utility-scale additions by 2030 [4]. - **Power Electronics Opportunities**: - The enabling solutions across power electronics and equipment suppliers are seen as second and third order beneficiaries of industrialization and electrification trends in both the US and China [4]. - Japanese and Korean firms, such as Hyundai Electric and Hyushong Electric, are expected to gain market share in this sector [4]. Company-Specific Insights - **Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL)**: - Price target (PT) set based on 2026E EPS of RMB20.0 and a PEG of 1.0x, with an underlying EPS CAGR of 26% from 2025 to 2028 [9]. - Risks include weaker electric vehicle (EV) sales, higher production costs, and potential loss of market share [9]. - **Kehua Data Co., Ltd.**: - Valued at a PT of RMB86.07, implying a 40x 2026E P/E ratio [10]. - Risks include weaker-than-expected domestic AI capital expenditures and increased competition [10]. - **Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co., Ltd.**: - Valuation based on a PEG of 0.75x, with an underlying EPS CAGR of 44% from 2025 to 2027 [11]. - Risks include fluctuations in EV demand and capacity expansion rates [11]. - **Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd.**: - Price target of RMB233.96 based on a 25x FY26E P/E [12]. - Risks include lower-than-expected solar installations and growth in energy storage systems [12]. - **Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd.**: - Base-case price target of RMB76 based on a 2026E P/E of 50x [13]. - Risks include shifts in global power battery demand and geopolitical actions against Chinese battery companies [13]. Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes the importance of energy demand in driving technological leadership and innovation across various fields, including computing and manufacturing [2]. - The contrasting dynamics of the power sectors in the US and China highlight the strategic importance of energy management in the tech rivalry [2][4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Technology, specifically focusing on China's tech leadership and its implications on global dynamics [1][2][19] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US-China Tech Rivalry**: The competition between the US and China in technology is a defining geopolitical issue for the coming decades. While the US leads in nominal GDP, China's contribution to global GDP on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis has surpassed that of the US since 2014 [2][19] 2. **5G as a Battleground**: China controls approximately 40% of global 5G patents and is responsible for about 70% of the world's 5G base stations. The country also has the highest global 5G population penetration, which serves as a blueprint for its tech scaling capabilities [3][49] 3. **Semiconductor Sector Challenges**: The semiconductor industry is critical for China's tech future. Current export restrictions pose significant challenges, and while China is investing heavily in building its semiconductor ecosystem, it still lacks the necessary infrastructure to compete with Western companies [4][12] 4. **Advancements in 3rd-Generation Semiconductors**: China leads in silicon carbide (45% of global capacity) and gallium nitride (approximately 33% of global revenue), which are essential for electric vehicles (EVs) and advanced industrial applications [5][87] 5. **Upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan**: China's 15th Five-Year Plan (5YP) is expected to be released in March 2026, with indications of over $100 billion in new venture investments. The details of this plan will be crucial for understanding future strategic priorities [12][19] Additional Important Insights 1. **Government Support**: The Chinese government plays a significant role in tech advancements through long-term strategic initiatives and supportive policies at local levels. This includes funding and nurturing national champions in key industries [108] 2. **Rare Earth Dominance**: China holds about 50% of global rare earth deposits but dominates 90% of refining and processing capacity, which is critical for various high-tech applications [5][107] 3. **Investment in Clean Tech**: China is significantly outpacing the US in clean tech factory investments, indicating a strong commitment to leading in sustainable technologies [38][39] 4. **Performance of Chinese Tech Stocks**: Chinese tech stocks have been outperforming their US counterparts, reflecting growing investor confidence in China's tech sector [41][43] Conclusion - The conference highlighted China's strategic positioning in the global tech landscape, emphasizing its advancements in 5G, semiconductors, and clean technology. The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan and continued government support are expected to further bolster China's tech leadership, posing challenges for US dominance in the sector [1][12][19]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **rare earth industry** and the geopolitical dynamics between **China** and the **United States** regarding rare earth exports and technology controls. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **China's Export Control Strategy**: Beijing's recent tightening of rare earth rules, effective December 1, aims to strengthen its export control power and respond to U.S. tech restrictions. This includes licensing for foreign goods with ≥0.1% Chinese content and case-by-case approval for inputs used in sub-14nm semiconductors [2][3][4] 2. **Geopolitical Leverage**: China's rare earth controls are designed to serve as leverage in the ongoing tech rivalry with the U.S., particularly ahead of APEC meetings. The timing of these controls is seen as a response to increased U.S. restrictions on China [4][18] 3. **Challenges in Enforcement**: The extraterritorial enforcement of China's rare earth controls is expected to be challenging due to limited global compliance infrastructure compared to the U.S. system, which has a mature compliance network and strong international support [9][11][12] 4. **China's Dominance in Supply Chain**: China holds a dominant position in the rare earth supply chain, with significant market shares in refining (88%) and magnet production (90%). This dominance is reinforced by a ban on exports of critical technologies related to rare earth processing [8][13] 5. **Risk of Overreach**: Aggressive enforcement of rare earth controls by China may accelerate global diversification efforts in rare earth supply chains, as countries like the U.S., EU, and Japan are already advancing joint procurement and strategic stockpiling initiatives [14][18] 6. **Long-term Competitive Confrontation**: The relationship between the U.S. and China is expected to remain characterized by competitive confrontation, with tactical escalations likely but a complete decoupling being improbable due to the economic interdependence [17][18] Additional Important Points 1. **Technological Self-sufficiency**: China's semiconductor self-sufficiency remains low at 24%, with projections to reach 30% by 2027. This indicates vulnerabilities in China's tech landscape that could be exploited by expanded U.S. controls [16] 2. **Calibrated Execution of Controls**: While China is unlikely to reverse its rare earth controls, the implementation will be calibrated to maintain supply continuity, allowing compliant cases to obtain approvals [19] 3. **International Responses**: Various countries are taking steps to diversify their rare earth supply chains, including the U.S. launching initiatives to secure critical materials outside of China and Japan collaborating with France on rare earth projects [23][24] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call, highlighting the strategic maneuvers in the rare earth sector and the implications for U.S.-China relations.