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VIX隐含波动率指标(VVIX)
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惨淡一季度后,华尔街“想抄底但还不是时候”,交易员“1月22日清仓就好了”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-04-01 00:53
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has experienced its worst relative quarterly performance in decades, with strong interest from Wall Street to buy the dip, but finding the right entry point remains challenging due to the looming risks from Trump's tariff policies [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has declined by 5.1% this year, while the MSCI global ex-U.S. index has risen by 6.5%, marking the largest quarterly gap since 1988 [3]. - Major technology stocks, once market leaders during the AI boom, have faced significant declines, contributing to the poor performance of the S&P 500 [3][10]. - The so-called "Magnificent 7" stocks have recorded a cumulative year-to-date drop of 17%, raising concerns about entering the market at this time [10]. Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The upcoming announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump is a focal point for the market, with many investors uncertain about when it will be safe to enter [6][8]. - Analysts express that the uncertainty surrounding tariff details and their impact on corporate earnings is hindering a significant recovery in the U.S. stock market [8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Technical indicators suggest that the U.S. stock market has not yet triggered a bottoming signal, with the S&P 500 needing to drop below 5250 points to reach historical low positioning [10]. - The "fear index" VIX has risen above 20, indicating increased anxiety among traders, while the VVIX has shown the largest jump of the year after hovering at six-month lows [10]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Strategy - Many investors are feeling frustrated and fatigued due to the current trading environment, lacking clear strategic guidance on how to proceed [12]. - The shift in mindset from greed to fear among traders reflects a growing concern about potential losses, although panic has not yet set in among clients [12].