关注投资家，⭐，您会收到最新推送 作者 | 彼得·林奇 来源 | 本文整理自富达投资 开场：与传奇对话的荣幸 主持人：今天真是一场难得的盛宴。有人告诉我，不知道你是否听说过——上一次坐在这些椅子上的 人，是奥普拉·温弗瑞（Oprah Winfrey）。 所以，如果有人在座位下发现一串新车钥匙，那可不是我们准备的，而是之前活动留下的。女士们、先 生们，能主持这场访谈，是我职业生涯中的一大荣幸，我为此兴奋了好几周。彼得（Peter Lynch）在这 个房间里无需过多介绍，但我还是想简单说几句。他曾叮嘱我别做太长的介绍，避免让他尴尬，但有些 事我必须提——可以吗？ 彼得·林奇：当然，没问题。 主持人：彼得目前担任富达管理与研究公司（Fidelity Management and Research）副主席，这是富达投 资的投资顾问子公司，他自1969年起便在此任职。同时，他还是林奇基金会（Lynch Foundation）的主 席兼总裁，该基金会专注支持教育、文化与历史遗产保护、医疗健康及医学研究领域的项目。 1974年至1977年，彼得担任富达研究部门主管；1977年至1990年退休前，他一直管理富达旗下的麦哲伦 ...

1.宗馥莉辞职 10月10日，第一财经记者从接近娃哈哈的人士了解到，宗馥莉已于9月12日向娃哈哈集团有限公司辞去公司 法人代表、董事及董事长等相关职务并已通过集团股东会和董事会的相关程序。 为何辞职？首席认为肯定是和最近诉讼彻底曝光宗家人设，以及开启"娃小宗"施压娃哈哈有关。本来开新品 牌也无可厚非，但在转移娃哈哈商标不成后又想利用新品牌施压控盘，无疑与原有大股东站在了对立面， 而宗家人设崩塌后，宗家的话题对品牌成了负面影响，因此，宗馥莉被迫辞职在所难免。 十四五"期间，儿童福利保障制度建设取得重大进展，将事实无人抚养儿童、留守儿童、流动儿童纳入国家 保障和关爱服务范围，覆盖各类困境儿童的保障关爱体系初步形成。集中养育孤儿、社会散居孤儿、事实 无人抚养儿童基本生活保障标准较2020年分别增长26%、32%和31%。 点评：用制度温暖守护特殊群体。 3.电影《捕风追影》延长上映至11月15日 据猫眼专业版显示，电影《捕风追影》官宣第二次密钥延期，延长上映至11月15日，截至目前累计票房已 达12.54亿。 4.纽瑞特医疗完成8亿元D轮融资，VC\PE阵容豪华 纽瑞特医疗于近期完成约8亿元人民币D轮融资。纽瑞特医 ...

各位朋友，我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者，看惯了市场的起起伏伏——今天凌晨美股这波"冲高又回落"，估计不少跟我一样做中长线的朋友都在琢 磨：这是行情要歇脚，还是在偷偷蓄力？ 先跟大家把盘面说透，不玩虚的。周四美股收盘，道指跌了243点多，跌幅0.52%，收在46358点；纳指跌得少，就18点出头，0.08%的跌幅，收在23024 点；标普500跌了18点多，0.28%，收在6735点。但有个细节得提，盘中纳指和标普都摸到了历史新高，纳指最高冲到23062点，标普到了6754点，这波冲 高挺提气，就是尾盘没稳住，有点"临门一脚差口气"的意思。 其实今天的重点不在这几点跌幅上，而在两个"关键信号"——一个是刚开打的美股财报季，一个是美联储官员们的"话风"。 先说说财报季，这可是咱们中长线投资者看基本面的"窗口"。今天早上百事和达美航空先交了卷子，表现都超预期：百事三季度每股收益2.29美元，营收 239.4亿美元，都比市场预期的高，股价直接涨了4.2%；达美航空更猛，涨了4.3%，CEO还直言营收前景"显著改善"，这对整个市场情绪是个小提振。不 过大家更关心的是美股"科技七巨头"，特斯拉10月22号先出财报，谷 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales increased by 2% to $417.3 million from $409 million in the prior year period [9][14] - Adjusted earnings per share rose by 13.1% to $1.55 compared to $1.57 in the prior year [14] - Operating cash flow improved by 23% [5] - Consolidated adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $88.7 million, reflecting a margin of 21.3%, down from 22.5% in the prior year [14][15] - Reported net income for the second quarter was $89.3 million, compared to $35.4 million for the prior year quarter [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metal Coatings segment achieved a sales increase of 10.88%, driven by higher volumes and infrastructure-related spending [9] - Precoat Metals' sales declined by 4.3% due to a weaker end-market environment, particularly in building construction, HVAC, and appliance end markets [9][10] - Metal Coatings margins were at 30.8%, slightly down due to a mix of lower-margin solar and transmission distribution projects [5][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - End-market sales for utilities increased by 19%, and consumer sales rose by 7.6%, while construction sales were up by less than 1% compared to the same quarter last year [18] - The demand outlook for Precoat's end markets remains mixed, with ongoing tariffs contributing to customer hesitation on non-infrastructure-related projects [6][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on technology upgrades, including migrating data systems to Oracle and exploring AI opportunities [8] - AZZ is pursuing strategic growth opportunities through capital allocation strategies, including organic growth and M&A [16][24] - The company anticipates multi-year tailwinds from infrastructure spending, particularly in energy and power generation capacity [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of core markets and growth potential for galvanized steel in construction and industrial projects [5] - The company reiterated guidance for total sales in the range of $1.625 billion to $1.725 billion for the fiscal year 2026 [23] - Management remains cautious about the mixed demand outlook for Precoat Metals but is optimistic about market share gains and new customer wins [6][19] Other Important Information - Interest expense for the second quarter was $13.7 million, a significant improvement from the prior year due to debt paydown and repricing [12] - The effective tax rate decreased to 21.9% from 25.6% in the prior year, attributed to increased R&D tax credits [13][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more color on Precoat market share gains? - Management noted that share gains were due to a significant decline in pre-painted imports because of tariffs, allowing them to capture approximately 3% to 4% of market share despite a 9% to 10% market decline [27][28] Question: What are the expectations for Precoat Metals segment volumes in the back half of the year? - Management indicated that sustaining market share gains and ramping up the Washington facility would be key, with optimism about a potential rebound in construction [31][32] Question: What would take you to the higher end of the adjusted EBITDA guidance range? - The biggest impact on EBITDA guidance is the loss of AVAIL equity income, with potential upside from operational improvements and market conditions [42][43] Question: How is the M&A pipeline looking? - Management reported a healthy M&A pipeline with several opportunities in various stages, expressing hope for potential acquisitions before the end of the year [64][65] Question: What is the outlook for interest expense for the fiscal year 2026? - Management expects interest expense to improve in the second half of the year due to debt reduction and favorable market conditions [84] Question: Can you provide insights on the zinc market? - Management noted that zinc prices have rebounded, which could create pricing opportunities, but current inventory levels mitigate immediate impacts on margins [96][98]

Group 1 - Major Japanese brokerages are collectively optimistic about the Nikkei 225 index due to expectations of a large-scale economic stimulus plan under new leader Kishi Sayaka [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 index saw a significant increase of 4.8% this week, while the TSE index rose by 3.1% [1] - The Japanese yen fell below 150 against the US dollar and reached a historical low against the euro [1] Group 2 - Analysts believe that Kishi Sayaka's leadership will boost economic growth and corporate earnings, driving their stock market predictions [1][2] - Nomura Securities raised its year-end target for the Nikkei index from 44,500 to 49,000 points, and the TSE index from 3,200 to 3,300 points [2] - Daiwa Securities increased its Nikkei index target from 44,000 to 49,000 points, with a potential to reach 50,000 points within the year [2] - SMBC Nikko Securities adjusted its Nikkei index target from 45,000 to 47,000 points, highlighting potential benefits for energy technology, cybersecurity, and defense sectors [2] - Swiss wealth management firm Julius Baer raised its Nikkei index target from 46,000 to 50,000 points, citing the attractiveness of the Japanese stock market driven by AI trends and structural reforms [2]

Company - AMD's stock price continues to rise after partnering with OpenAI, with a week-to-date increase of 43% [3] - Security service company Verisure saw a significant first-day listing surge, marking the largest IPO in Europe since 2022 [3] - Investment banks are collectively optimistic about Dell, with target prices being raised consecutively, leading to a single-day stock increase of 9% [3] - Citigroup downgraded the rating of Robinson Global Logistics while raising its target stock price [3] - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen technology head is forming an internal AI robotics team [3] Industry - The U.S. federal government remains in a shutdown, with nearly half of the IRS employees forced to take leave [3] - The Congressional Budget Office reports that the U.S. budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected to remain at $1.8 trillion [3] - The IMF and central banks from the U.S. and U.K. are discussing the AI boom in U.S. stocks, weighing the risks of a potential slowdown or a healthy bubble [3] - The issuance of U.S. Treasury securities has surged, raising speculation about a reduction in the issuance of interest-bearing debt [3]

Global Market Overview - The report highlights that major global stock markets experienced mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index remaining stable at 26,958, while the US markets showed slight declines, particularly the Nasdaq which fell by 0.67% [1][3] - Emerging markets have shown strong recovery this year, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 28%, marking the largest increase since 2009, significantly outperforming the MSCI Developed Markets Index [3] - The report notes a shift in investor sentiment, with funds moving from bond markets to alternative assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin due to concerns over currency devaluation and high government debt levels [3] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 45,150, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 28.50%, while the Hang Seng Industrial Index rose by 39.85% [2] - The report indicates that the Hang Seng Property Index increased by 21.45%, whereas the Hang Seng Utilities Index saw a slight decline of 0.33% [2] Japanese Market Insights - Japan's stock market surged following the unexpected election of a pro-stimulus leader, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching its highest level since 2008, indicating a potential shift towards more expansive monetary and fiscal policies [3] - The report suggests that this political change may enhance macroeconomic stimulus prospects in Japan [3] US Market Dynamics - The US stock market experienced a pullback, particularly in consumer discretionary and industrial sectors, while utilities and financials showed gains [3] - Notable movements included Oracle's significant decline due to disappointing cloud business margins, while AMD's stock rose following a partnership with OpenAI [3] Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices reached a historic high, closing above $4,000, driven by a weaker dollar and high government debt levels [3] - The report also mentions a surge in cobalt prices due to export control measures from the Democratic Republic of Congo, raising concerns about long-term supply constraints [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that the stock market may experience a significant correction in the next one to two years, citing the AI boom as a potential risk similar to the internet bubble [1][3] - CEO David Solomon compares the current AI-driven market to the 1990s internet bubble, suggesting that a withdrawal of investments could lead to a market downturn [3][12] - The S&P 500's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio has surged to 38 times, indicating a historical high and raising concerns about market concentration risk [3][12] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has a history of making inaccurate predictions regarding bank stocks, such as its 2023 report on China Merchants Bank, which underestimated the actual non-performing loan ratio [5][9] - The current market environment is complicated by high global government debt and rising interest rates, which could impact stock market stability [5][12] - There is a divergence in market reactions to Goldman Sachs' warnings, with some investors reducing their positions while others see potential buying opportunities [8][12] Group 3 - Retail investors are particularly vulnerable to panic selling in response to institutional warnings, as evidenced by the significant volume of high-risk options trading [8][12] - Goldman Sachs' contradictory stance—warning of an AI bubble while acknowledging the long-term potential of technology—raises questions about its motives [8][12] - Other financial institutions, like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, are also issuing warnings about market risks, contributing to a confusing landscape for investors [12][13]

Core Insights - The amount of money Americans are investing in the stock market has reached an all-time high, with stocks accounting for 45% of household financial assets, driven by a historic stock market rise and increased participation in stock investments [1][2] - The concentration of wealth in the stock market raises concerns about the potential impact of market downturns on personal finances, especially amid a weakening labor market and persistent inflation [1][2] - The "Big Seven" tech companies have contributed approximately 41% of the S&P 500's gains this year, leading to increased exposure for investors to the fortunes of a few major firms [2] Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index has risen 33% since its low on April 8, with a year-to-date increase of 13%, largely driven by the AI boom and significant gains in tech stocks like Nvidia [1] - Historical data indicates that when stock ownership levels reach record highs, the risks of declines and below-average returns also increase, suggesting that future returns may not replicate the past decade's performance [2][3] Economic Disparities - Concerns about a "K-shaped economy" are growing, where the wealthiest Americans are becoming richer while the poorest continue to struggle, primarily due to reliance on the labor market for income [2][3] - The top 10% of earners contributed over 49% of consumer spending in Q2, the highest proportion recorded since 1989, highlighting the economic divide [3] Psychological Impact - The strong performance of the stock market has inflated the net worth of the wealthy, which in turn supports economic growth through increased consumption [3][4] - A significant stock market exposure can amplify economic impacts, where market downturns could negatively affect consumer spending and the psychological outlook of affluent individuals [4]

Core Insights - The spending on data center construction is experiencing unprecedented growth, soon surpassing the growth rate of office building construction costs [1] - As of July this year, annualized spending on data center construction in the U.S. has surged to $41 billion, nearly matching the construction costs of all private office buildings [2] - Since July 2014, the increase in data center construction spending has reached 2200%, with major tech companies announcing significant new investment plans [3] Group 1 - The release of ChatGPT at the end of 2022 has significantly accelerated this trend, prompting official statistical agencies to categorize data centers as a separate statistical category [2] - Notable investors, such as David Einhorn, have warned that this cycle could lead to substantial capital destruction [3] - Tech giants including Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle, SoftBank, and Meta have announced new construction plans totaling hundreds of billions of dollars, which will further elevate spending figures [3] Group 2 - Nvidia and OpenAI are planning a $100 billion super data center project with a power capacity of 10 gigawatts [3] - OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank have also announced their $500 billion "Stargate" project, while Meta is advancing its "Titan Cluster" data center initiative [3]