Evolent Health, Inc. (NYSE:EVH) is one of the best NYSE penny stocks to buy now. On January 7, Citi cut its price target for Evolent Health, Inc. (NYSE:EVH) to $6 from $9.50 but maintained a Buy rating, citing cautious optimism for 2026 despite a challenging 2025, when nearly a third of the health tech and distribution group fell more than 25%. Evolent Health (EVH): From ACA Headwinds to Specialty Care Expansion A day earlier on January 6, analysts at Citizens reiterated an Outperform rating on Evolent H ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter adjusted operating income was $586 million, bringing full-year adjusted operating income to $2.094 billion [18] - Adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations for the fourth quarter was $3.40, with full-year adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $10.78 [18] - Free cash flow was $309 million in the fourth quarter, totaling just over $1 billion for the full year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. dialysis treatments declined by 1.1% for the full year compared to 2024, with a slight decline of about 20 basis points in the fourth quarter [19] - Revenue per treatment (RPT) grew approximately $12 sequentially in the fourth quarter, with full-year RPT at approximately $410, reflecting a 4.7% increase [20] - International adjusted operating income was $21 million for the fourth quarter, totaling $114 million for the full year, indicating strong performance and positive organic growth [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates treatment volume for U.S. dialysis to be approximately flat in 2026, with a forecasted growth of 1%-2% in RPT [26] - The expiration of enhanced premium tax credits is expected to create a $40 million headwind in 2026, offset by the elimination of a $45 million headwind from the previous year's cyber incident [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing patient care through clinical initiatives, including vaccination programs and partnerships with home care providers [14][15] - A strategic clinical partnership with Elara Caring aims to lower hospitalizations and missed treatment rates while improving patient experience [14] - The company expects to deliver an incremental $20 million of IKC operating income growth in 2026, building on its first profitable year in IKC [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustaining profit growth despite near-term financial headwinds, emphasizing a focus on clinical excellence [12][13] - The company expects adjusted operating income for 2026 to be in the range of $2.085 billion to $2.235 billion, reflecting a 3.2% growth at the midpoint [17] - Management highlighted the importance of addressing mortality rates and missed treatments to achieve long-term growth targets [32] Other Important Information - The company repurchased nearly 13 million shares for approximately $1.8 billion in 2025, with a leverage ratio of 3.26x consolidated EBITDA [22] - The midpoint of the guidance for 2026 adjusted EPS is $14.30, representing a 33% increase over the previous year [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in returning to 2%+ volume growth - Management indicated that achieving this growth is tied to clinical improvements and expects benefits to materialize over the next two years [32] Question: Trends in missed treatments and mortality - Missed treatments were up in Q4, but year-over-year changes were minimal, with a noted correlation between missed treatments and mortality [41] Question: ACA headwind expectations - The company anticipates a $40 million headwind from ACA changes in 2026, with open enrollment performing better than expected [45] Question: Impact of cyber incident on financials - The cyber incident created a $70 million headwind in 2025, which is expected to be offset by the ACA headwind in 2026 [54] Question: IKC performance and future growth - Management noted that shared savings contributed to better-than-expected performance in IKC, with confidence in continued growth [56] Question: International business growth - The international segment is expected to grow through a mix of M&A and organic growth, with improving margins [67]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, adjusted operating income was $586 million, bringing full-year adjusted operating income to $2.094 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 was $3.40, with full-year adjusted EPS of $10.78. Free cash flow for Q4 was $309 million, totaling just over $1 billion for the full year [16][15][17] - Revenue per treatment (RPT) increased approximately $12 sequentially in Q4, with full-year RPT at approximately $410, reflecting a 4.7% increase year-over-year [17][18] - Patient care costs per treatment (PCCs) finished the year 5.9% higher than 2024, near the top end of revised expectations [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. dialysis treatments declined by 1.1% for the full year 2025 compared to 2024, with a slight decline of about 20 basis points in Q4 [16][17] - International adjusted operating income was $21 million for Q4, totaling $114 million for the full year, reflecting strong performance and positive organic growth [18] - Integrated Kidney Care (IKC) achieved its first profitable year in 2025, with Q4 adjusted operating income of $46 million and full-year adjusted operating income of $22 million [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates treatment volume for U.S. dialysis to be approximately flat in 2026, with expectations for RPT growth of 1%-2% [20][22] - The expiration of enhanced premium tax credits is expected to create a $40 million headwind in 2026, offset by the elimination of a $45 million headwind from a cyber incident in 2025 [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing patient care through clinical initiatives, including vaccination programs and the adoption of GLP-1 medications, which are expected to improve patient outcomes and reduce mortality [11][12] - A strategic partnership with Elara Caring aims to establish an ESKD-focused offering to lower hospitalizations and improve patient experiences [12][24] - The company expects to deliver adjusted operating income growth of approximately 3.2% in 2026, with a focus on maintaining sustainable U.S. dialysis margins and delivering durable financial performance [15][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustaining profit growth despite near-term financial headwinds, emphasizing a focus on clinical excellence and targeted initiatives to enhance patient care [11][10] - The company anticipates that improvements in clinical outcomes will take time to materialize, with expectations for benefits to become evident in approximately two years [28][29] Other Important Information - The company repurchased nearly 13 million shares for approximately $1.8 billion in 2025, with a leverage ratio of 3.26 times consolidated EBITDA at year-end [19][24] - Free cash flow guidance for 2026 is set between $1 billion and $1.25 billion, reflecting a resilient business model [15][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in returning to 2%+ volume growth - Management indicated that achieving 2% growth is tied to clinical improvements and expects to see benefits from initiatives in about two years [27][28] Question: Trends in mistreatments and mortality - Management noted that mistreatments were up in Q4 but did not see significant changes in mortality rates, emphasizing a correlation between mistreatment and mortality with some lag [35][36] Question: ACA headwind expectations - Management provided estimates for ACA headwinds, indicating better-than-expected performance during open enrollment but noted the need to monitor payment behaviors [39][40] Question: Impact of cyber incident on financials - Management clarified that the cyber incident created a $70 million headwind, with expectations for RPT headwinds to be offset by the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits [48] Question: Performance of IKC and future growth - Management highlighted that shared savings in IKC outperformed expectations due to improved care management and interventions, projecting continued growth [50][51] Question: International business growth and margins - Management expects international growth to be driven by both M&A and organic growth, with margins improving as fixed overhead is leveraged [61]

Core Insights - Counterpart Health, Inc. continues to demonstrate that unified data and real-time insights enhance clinical and financial outcomes for healthcare providers [1] Clinical Quality and Financial Performance Outcomes - In 2025, Counterpart released three new retrospective data analyses confirming the effectiveness of Counterpart Assistant (CA) in improving chronic disease management through real-world data [2] - The platform's impact is reflected in thousands of improved clinical decisions made during patient visits [2] Technological Innovation and Enterprise Scaling - Counterpart has evolved into an end-to-end clinical operating system for value-based care, expanding its support beyond the point of care to encompass the entire care continuum [3] Clinician Adoption - There was a greater than 450% year-over-year increase in live third-party customer clinicians, now numbering in the hundreds across multiple states [4] - Clover Health members whose primary care physicians use CA showed an approximate 1,500 basis point MCR differential compared to those whose PCPs do not [4] Quality Metrics - Counterpart's technology achieved the 1 HEDIS score nationwide for a PPO Medicare Advantage plan for the second consecutive year, across a wide network of non-employed physicians [4] Earlier Disease Identification - New members under the care of a CA PCP were 75% more likely to be diagnosed with COPD in their first year, with COPD patients having an 18% higher average number of outpatient pulmonology visits [5] - Relationships with CA PCPs were associated with an 18% lower rate of all-cause hospitalizations for Congestive Heart Failure and a 15% lower rate for COPD [5] Support for Disadvantaged Neighborhoods - In resource-constrained neighborhoods, CA attribution was linked to 70-89% higher diagnosis rates across four major chronic diseases, with earlier identification of patients [5] Integrated Ambient Scribing and Natural Language Chat - Counterpart offers a fully integrated solution that allows physicians to focus on patients while utilizing advanced technology for real-time visit documentation [6] - The platform includes next-generation capabilities for clinicians to inquire about patient medical histories in natural language, ensuring a PHI-safe environment [6] Vision for Value-Based Care - The CEO of Counterpart Health emphasized that better outcomes and lower costs stem from improved clinical decisions made during patient visits, aiming to set a new standard for care delivery [7] - The company envisions a future where numerous informed decisions lead to extraordinary outcomes for patients, clinicians, and communities [8] Company Overview - Counterpart Health, a subsidiary of Clover Health Investments, is an AI-powered physician enablement platform focused on transforming care delivery and improving patient outcomes while reducing healthcare costs [9]

Industry Overview - Healthcare information technology (IT) is attracting significant investor interest in 2025 due to the acceleration of digital transformation in the U.S. health system, with investments aimed at enhancing telehealth access, streamlining workflows, and improving chronic disease management [1][2] - The global healthcare IT market was valued at $663 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to $1,834.3 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.8% from 2024 to 2030, with North America holding over 40% of the market share in 2023 [3] Investment Opportunities - Investors are focusing on companies that offer scalable technology with recurring revenue models, as several healthcare IT stocks have outperformed broader indices in 2025, driven by strong fundamentals and product expansion [4] - Notable U.S.-listed stocks include Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS), Biotricity, Inc. (BTCY), and Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA), all of which have seen year-to-date share price gains exceeding 20% [4][10] Company Highlights Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) - HIMS has gained 44.9% in 2025, focusing on a consumer-centric telehealth platform that offers personalized treatment plans and wellness solutions across various health domains [6] - The company reported nearly $600 million in Q3 revenues, a 49% year-over-year increase, with a subscriber base growth of about 21% to approximately 2.5 million [7] - HIMS is expanding its services and has initiated a $250 million share repurchase program, indicating confidence in long-term value creation [8] Biotricity, Inc. (BTCY) - BTCY has risen 25.9% year-to-date, focusing on remote patient monitoring solutions that support chronic disease management, particularly in cardiac care [11] - The company is recognized as one of the fastest-growing companies in the Americas, with improved gross margins and progress toward profitability [12][13] - Key metrics to monitor include recurring revenue growth and margin expansion as the company broadens its clinical applications [14] Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) - PRVA has achieved a 22.9% stock growth in 2025, with Q3 revenues up 32.5% to $580.4 million and operating income increasing nearly 150% [19] - The company emphasizes value-based care and has expanded geographically through acquisitions, raising its full-year guidance [20] - Analysts maintain a strong buy view on PRVA, with sales and earnings estimates for 2026 suggesting growth of 9.7% and 142.9%, respectively [21]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues for Q3 2025 reached $956 million, representing a 100% increase year-over-year and a 46% increase sequentially, driven by the integration of Prospect Health and solid organic growth [7][18] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $68.5 million, up 52% year-over-year and 42% sequentially, indicating strong profitability during aggressive scaling [7][18] - The company ended the quarter with approximately $462 million in cash and short-term investments, and net debt of approximately $624 million, resulting in a net leverage ratio of about 2.5 times on a pro forma trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA basis [20][50] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The care enablement segment saw significant growth, more than doubling revenue quarter-over-quarter due to the addition of new provider group clients from Prospect [18] - Medical cost trends remained stable and well-controlled across both legacy Astrana and Prospect businesses, with Medicare trending favorably below the 4.5% expectation for the year [8][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reiterated synergy targets of $12 to $15 million from the Prospect acquisition, focusing on aligning provider and patient experiences, standardizing operating systems, and implementing the Astrana technology platform [9][20] - The partnership with Intermountain Health in Nevada enhances Astrana's presence in a fast-growing market, combining clinical infrastructure with value-based care management capabilities [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company’s strategy is built on four pillars: smart growth, disciplined risk progression, quality and cost excellence, and operating leverage through technology [6] - The integration of AI across the enterprise is expected to drive improvements in efficiency and care quality, with predictive models identifying high-risk patients for earlier interventions [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the integration of Prospect and its potential to enhance performance heading into 2026, despite some anticipated headwinds in Medicaid and exchange businesses due to regulatory dynamics [15][16] - The company updated its 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $3.1 to $3.18 billion and adjusted EBITDA to a range of $200 to $210 million, attributing changes to timing rather than underlying performance [14][21] Other Important Information - The company expects to achieve full onboarding of Prospect's physician groups and care teams to the Astrana platform by mid-2026, with cultural integration being a key focus [9][10] - Cash flow from operations for the quarter was approximately $10 million, contributing to a nine-month total of $118 million, with expectations of full-year free cash flow conversion of approximately 40 to 45% of adjusted EBITDA [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Revenue guidance update related to full-risk transition timing - Management clarified that the delay was strictly a timing issue related to both legacy Astrana and Prospect businesses, ensuring contract standardization across both [22][23] Question: Details on the Intermountain Health partnership - The partnership aims to enhance care coordination and affordability for patients in Southern Nevada, with potential for future expansion into additional states [24] Question: Medicaid cost trends and expectations - Management anticipates Medicaid margins to stabilize by late 2026, with current trends showing improvement [25][26] Question: Margins by segment - The care enablement segment showed high margins due to rapid growth and effective management, while care partners' margins were slightly lower due to higher trends in the legacy Prospect business [27][28] Question: Medical cost trends and expectations for 2026 - The blended weighted average cost trend was just under 4.5%, with expectations for conservative management in light of potential regulatory headwinds [41][42]

Core Insights - Cencora, Inc. is a significant player in the pharmaceutical distribution industry, with a market capitalization of $58.7 billion, providing a range of healthcare products and services [1][2] Company Overview - Cencora offers end-to-end pharmaceutical commercialization solutions, over-the-counter healthcare products, home healthcare supplies, and related services to healthcare providers [1] - The company is categorized as a large-cap stock due to its market cap exceeding $10 billion, highlighting its size and influence in the medical distribution sector [2] Financial Performance - In Q3, Cencora reported revenue of $80.7 billion, an increase of 8.7% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS rose by 19.8% to $4 [5] - The company has raised its fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $15.85 to $16 [5] Stock Performance - Cencora's stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 34.6% and a 27.3% rise over the past 52 weeks, outperforming the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund's marginal gains [4] - Despite a recent drop of 2.2% from its 52-week high of $309.35, the stock has gained 2.5% over the past three months, outperforming the XLV's 1% gain [3][4] Strategic Positioning - The company's strengths include its strategic positioning in the healthcare value chain, a diversified portfolio, and scale-driven bargaining power [2] - Cencora leverages technological capabilities in supply chain management and data analytics to achieve high operational efficiency, with fill rates exceeding 99% [2]

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference is part of the 23rd annual Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference, focusing on the healthcare industry and innovations in home-based care [2][3] - The company discussed is DocGo, a medical transportation and mobile health provider, which has been innovating in the medical transportation space for over 10 years [4][5] Key Points and Arguments Mobile Health Growth - DocGo has seen significant growth in the mobile health segment, particularly in coordinating care for high-utilizing members through partnerships with insurance companies [4][5] - The company has expanded its reach from serving 2,000 patients to nearly a million patients across the New York tri-state area and California [6][8] - On average, DocGo closes almost two care gaps per home visit, with some visits closing up to six gaps [6][8] Technology Integration - The tech stack developed by DocGo is crucial for efficient home-based medical care, allowing licensed practical nurses (LPNs) and medical assistants to provide care under the direction of primary care providers [10][11] - Integration with electronic health record (EHR) systems like Epic enhances coordination and efficiency in patient care [11] Revenue and Contract Stability - DocGo's contracts in the transportation segment typically last three to five years and are described as "sticky," indicating high customer retention [13][14] - The company is transitioning from episodic contracts with municipal governments to more sustainable, population health-focused contracts with payers [15] Labor and Inflation Management - Staffing is a significant challenge, with 800 open roles to fill, but the company maintains a strong reputation as a desirable workplace [16][18] - Inflationary pressures are minimal, with fuel costs decreasing and existing vehicles owned or procured under favorable terms [17] Payer Opportunities - DocGo works primarily with managed care, Medicaid, and Medicare Advantage plans, focusing on the dual special needs population, which shows higher engagement rates [20][21] - The company aims to keep patients out of hospitals, aligning with value-based care models that incentivize health plans to manage costs effectively [23][24] M&A Strategy - DocGo is looking for M&A opportunities that add capabilities or expand geographic reach, particularly in underserved areas [26][27] - The medical transportation market is estimated at $10 billion, with DocGo currently capturing around $225 million, indicating significant growth potential [49] Capital Allocation - The company prioritizes organic growth, staff training, and M&A opportunities while maintaining a strong balance sheet with over $100 million in cash [30][32][33] Market Expansion - DocGo expands into new markets based on demand from existing customers, ensuring they have anchor clients before entering new regions [37][38] Go-to-Market Strategy - The sales cycle for new customers can range from 6 to 18 months, with existing customers typically resulting in faster expansions [42][43] Telehealth Perspective - While telehealth is recognized as a valuable service, DocGo emphasizes the necessity of in-person care for certain medical needs, positioning itself uniquely in the market [54][56] Other Important Insights - The company has a high Net Promoter Score of over 90, indicating strong patient satisfaction [47][48] - The medical transportation segment is increasingly recognized as vital for patient flow management within hospital systems [51][52]

Core Insights - CVS is focusing on technology-led care, which is reflected in its solid Q2 earnings and an 8.4% revenue increase to nearly $99 billion [2] - The company's diversified business model is helping to mitigate fluctuations in medical costs, with retail pharmacy and consumer wellness units contributing significantly to sales [2] Financial Performance - CVS reported a revenue increase of 8.4%, reaching just under $99 billion, with retail pharmacy and consumer wellness units accounting for approximately one-third of total sales [2] - Same-store pharmacy sales surged by roughly 18% in the quarter, while prescription volumes rose by 6%, leading to a retail script share of 27.8% [5] Technology and Innovation - The company is investing $20 billion over the next decade to enhance technology in healthcare, aiming to transform the care journey significantly [4] - CVS is implementing digital solutions to address persistent healthcare issues, including a streamlined prior-authorization process for cancer therapies [3] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - The rise in pharmacy sales is partly attributed to technology that redistributes tasks within CVS's 9,000 stores and increased traffic from Rite Aid store closures [5] - There is a notable increase in spending on GLP-1 medications, which have nearly doubled for employer clients over the last two years, now representing 15% of their pharmacy costs [6] Operational Challenges - CVS faced higher-than-expected medical ratios at its OakStreet Health clinics, leading to a $200 million reduction in full-year guidance for the Health Services segment [6] - The company is working to strengthen its value-based care unit through improved operations and new leadership [7]

Core Insights - UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is expected to report its second-quarter earnings on July 29, with a focus on its Optum platform, which may provide stability amid regulatory challenges and margin pressures in the health insurance sector [1][8] Optum Performance - Optum's diverse business model, encompassing pharmacy services, data analytics, and value-based care, positions UNH advantageously. In Q2 2025, Optum's revenues are projected to increase by 7.3% year-over-year, building on a 12% growth in 2024 and a 4.6% growth in Q1 2025 [2][8] - OptumHealth is enhancing its value-based care model, which aims to improve health outcomes while controlling costs, thereby mitigating the impact of rising claims in the sector [3] - OptumInsight is leveraging technology and data-driven services to enhance operational efficiencies for both external clients and UNH itself [3] Competitive Landscape - Elevance Health Inc (ELV) reported a 36.1% year-over-year increase in operating revenues for its Carelon services brand in Q2 2025, while overall operating revenues rose by 14.3% [5] - Cigna's health services division, Evernorth, saw adjusted revenues climb by 16% year-over-year in Q1 2025, with its second-quarter results expected on July 31 [6] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - UNH shares have declined by 44.5% year-to-date, compared to a 36.7% decline in the industry [7] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for UNH is 12.2, above the industry average of 11.2, with a Value Score of A [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNH's 2025 earnings is $21.15 per share, indicating a 23.5% decrease from the previous year [10]