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China's economy is struggling, but its homegrown companies are dominating abroad, Goldman Sachs says
Yahoo Financeยท 2025-10-21 13:04
Core Insights - China's economy is experiencing a prolonged slump characterized by a property crisis, weak consumer demand, and deflation, yet its major companies are generating significant profits abroad [1][6][7] - Chinese firms are shifting their focus from low-cost manufacturing to exporting services, technology, intellectual property, and cultural products, marking a departure from the traditional "Made in China" model [4][7] Overseas Investment Strategy - Chinese companies have strategically increased their overseas direct investment, particularly in emerging markets and Belt and Road Initiative countries, to diversify supply chains and enhance business resilience [2] - This strategy allows firms to build production capacity closer to end markets, which is crucial for adapting to global market demands [2] Revenue Generation - Chinese listed companies now derive approximately 16% of their total revenue from overseas markets, an increase from 14% in 2018, with expectations for this share to rise by about 0.6 percentage points annually [3] - Although this figure is still below the 50% average for developed-market firms, the growth rate indicates a significant shift in revenue sources [3] Value Chain Shift - The transition from low-cost goods to higher-value exports includes a diverse range of products such as electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar panels, reflecting an upward movement in the value chain [4] - Chinese products remain competitively priced, with discounts ranging from 15% to 60% compared to global competitors, enhancing their attractiveness in international markets [4] Market Adaptation - Chinese companies are increasingly recognized in the US market, with brands like Pop Mart, Luckin Coffee, and Temu gaining traction by exporting not only products but also digital business models [5] - The impact of tariffs on corporate earnings is mitigated by diversified supply chains, with estimates suggesting that a 100% tariff would only reduce earnings by about 10% in the short term [5]