Value Reset
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Can McDonald's Value Reset Reignite U.S. Guest Counts in 2026?
ZACKS· 2025-12-09 14:11
Core Insights - McDonald's Corporation is implementing a comprehensive value reset focused on revamped Extra Value Meals (EVMs) to reverse two years of declining traffic among lower-income U.S. consumers [1] - The company aims to make value predictable and compelling to rebuild guest counts by 2026 [1] Group 1: Value Strategy - The relaunch of EVMs at $5 and $8 is a significant effort to repair value perception on the core menu, as previous pricing drifted away from consumer expectations [2] - Franchisees support the necessary changes, and McDonald's is co-investing through early 2026 to alleviate near-term margin pressure while traffic rebuilds [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - Early results show improving value scores and growing awareness, but management notes that momentum will take several quarters to fully materialize [3] - Macro challenges such as rents, food inflation, and childcare costs continue to pressure lower-income consumers, leading to a double-digit decline in QSR visits [3] Group 3: Future Positioning - McDonald's is entering 2026 with stronger value signaling, digital engagement through loyalty programs, and menu innovations, which are expected to support higher-income traffic gains [4] - If inflation moderates and value messaging scales as planned, McDonald's could stabilize and potentially increase guest counts during 2026 [4] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Wendy's and Burger King are also tightening their value strategies in anticipation of strained consumer spending in 2026 [6] - Wendy's focuses on its 4 for $4 and Biggie Bag bundles to provide price certainty, while Burger King emphasizes value in its "Reclaim the Flame" turnaround plan [7][8] Group 5: Financial Performance - McDonald's shares have gained 3% over the past year, contrasting with a 12.5% decline in the industry [9] - The current forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for McDonald's is 23.48, slightly lower than the industry's 23.64 [14]