Summary of the Japan Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Japanese equity market amid rising long-term interest rates, particularly the implications for stock selection and investment strategies in Japan [1][6][15]. Core Insights - **Negative Real Interest Rates**: Despite rising long-term interest rates, Japan's real interest rates remain negative, which is supportive of equity valuations [6][15][16]. - **Equity Valuations**: Japanese equities are considered inexpensive in a global context, with a higher yield spread compared to the US and Europe, indicating that rising rates do not necessarily lead to a bearish outlook for Japanese stocks [17][36]. - **Leverage Metrics**: Leverage-related metrics are not expected to be significant drivers of stock selection in the current environment, with a shift towards value factors becoming more effective [6][22][32]. Market Dynamics - **Long-Term Interest Rates**: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) faces challenges with rising yields, particularly in the super-long segment of the Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) market, which has seen a lack of buyers and increased selling pressure [7][8][11]. - **Fiscal Concerns**: There are concerns regarding fiscal dominance as the government considers consumption tax cuts, which could impact market confidence and bond yields [11][14][35]. - **Investment Strategy**: The current environment suggests that investors should not adopt excessive pessimism towards Japanese equities, as the fundamentals remain supportive [15][36]. Key Data Points - **JGB Yields**: As of January 20, 2026, 10-year JGB yields exceeded 2.3%, marking a significant rise [38]. - **Dividend Yields**: For over 20 years, long-term yields have remained below dividend yields, but recent trends show a slight inversion, indicating changing market dynamics [39][41]. - **Value Factor Performance**: A 1% increase in Japanese long-term rates is estimated to raise composite value factor returns by 23.83%, significantly higher than the impact of US long-term rates [33][62]. Additional Considerations - **Market Liquidity**: The lack of buyers in the super-long JGB market has led to a self-reinforcing negative cycle, raising concerns about fiscal stability and market liquidity [8][10]. - **Equity Growth Expectations**: In rising rate environments, companies with higher leverage may outperform due to enhanced growth expectations, countering the typical profit pressure from increased interest expenses [22][25][28]. - **Inflation Dynamics**: Historical data suggests that moderate inflation levels are beneficial for equities, indicating potential for improved returns if Japan transitions from deflation to a stable inflationary environment [57]. Conclusion - The Japanese equity market is positioned to navigate rising long-term interest rates without significant adverse effects, supported by negative real interest rates and attractive equity valuations. Investors are encouraged to focus on value factors and remain optimistic about the potential for growth in the Japanese market [15][36].

Core Viewpoint - The 60/40 portfolio strategy, traditionally a staple in investment, is regaining relevance as market conditions improve, according to BlackRock's chief investment strategist Gargi Pal Chaudhuri [1][8]. Group 1: Historical Context - The 60/40 portfolio strategy faced significant challenges in 2022 due to soaring inflation and rising interest rates, which negatively impacted both stocks and bonds simultaneously [2]. - A similar scenario occurred in early 2025, marked by a trade war initiated by President Donald Trump, leading to increased bond yields and declining stock values, making it the worst period for the 60/40 strategy in 150 years [3]. Group 2: Current Market Outlook - Chaudhuri expresses optimism for the equity market in 2026, suggesting that bonds can once again serve as a hedge against stock market downturns [8]. - Interest rates are starting the year at higher levels compared to 2022, providing potential for rates to decrease, which has led to a negative correlation between stocks and long-end bonds [9]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - For bond investments, Chaudhuri recommends focusing on the middle of the yield curve, specifically the five to ten-year segments, to achieve attractive yields while minimizing duration risk [9][10]. - In the stock market, the value factor is highlighted as attractive, with an expected earnings growth of approximately 12% in the value sector [11].

Group 1 - The value factor in investing becomes less attractive when growth stocks outperform for an extended period, as seen with companies like NVIDIA and Tesla [1] - Roberts Berzins has over a decade of experience in financial management, focusing on corporate financial strategies and large-scale financings [1] - Berzins has contributed to the institutionalization of the REIT framework in Latvia to enhance liquidity in pan-Baltic capital markets [1] Group 2 - Berzins has developed national SOE financing guidelines and frameworks to channel private capital into affordable housing [1] - He holds a CFA Charter and an ESG investing certificate, and has experience with the Chicago Board of Trade [1] - Berzins is actively involved in thought-leadership activities to support the development of pan-Baltic capital markets [1]